Monday, December 15, 2008

Rany's Royal Ramblings.

Bill Simmons calls it The Ramblings. Joe Sheehan calls it Bullet Point Friday, or sometimes Short Attention Span Theatre. I call it The Column You Write When Your Brain Is So Fried By The Chiefs That You Can’t Focus On Any Topic For More Than A Hundred Words.

- My Spanish literacy is very limited, so I’m grateful to the Royals for their recent efforts to educate me. I mean, who knew that “Jairo Cuevas” is Spanish for “Tim Pugh”? (And how many of you even get that reference?)

- I lumped Doug Waechter in with Kyle Farnsworth in my last post, as the news had just come across the wire before I hit “publish”. Now that we know the details of his contract, it’s clear that was unfair of me. Waechter signed a one-year deal for $640,000, and there’s just no way you can describe a $640,000 deal to anyone as a bad deal. Waechter will be making about 14% of what Farnsworth will make in 2009, and even that understates the difference, because the league minimum is about $400,000 (it’s now indexed for inflation, so I’m not sure the exact figure). Waechter is making just $240,000 in marginal salary over some career minor leaguer – in terms of marginal salary, he’ll earn just 6% of Farnsworth’s income.

I don’t know much about Waechter except that he was once a crappy starting pitcher for the Devil Rays – back when that was sort of a requirement for his job – then blew out his shoulder and was re-invented as a useful reliever for the Marlins last year. The major difference between 2008 and the rest of his career was his performance against RHB. His line against LHB (.303/.358/.486) was along the lines of his career numbers (.289/.351/.521), but his numbers against RHB improved dramatically (.216/.281/.338 vs .267/.322/.432). It’s hard to compare Waechter the post-injury reliever to Waechter the pre-injury starter, but he did appear to be a fundamentally better pitcher last season; his strikeout rate (6.54 per nine) was easily his career best. At worst, he’s a useful ROOGY, a pale but still useful simulacrum of Ramon Ramirez.

- It’s been a week, and the Kyle Farnsworth signing continues to baffle me. I appreciate that Dayton Moore probably does not have time in his busy day to read my blog, but after I defended the Coco Crisp trade in large part by detailing how Moore has built a high-end bullpen almost entirely on the cheap, it just amazes me that he would suddenly rip a page out of the Allard Baird playbook by trying to spackle the holes in his bullpen with hundred-dollar bills. We’ve seen this play run before. It didn’t work with Roberto Hernandez. It didn’t work with Ricky Bottalico. It didn’t work with Doug Henry. I see no reason to think it’s going to work with Kyle Farnsworth.

- Here’s a friendly wager for Moore. Here’s a list of a number of players that are or were available for around the league minimum: Waechter, Eduardo Morlan (Rule 5 pick by the Brewers from Tampa Bay), Jesus Colome (non-tendered by Washington), Joe Nelson (non-tendered by the Marlins), and Muntader Al-Zaidi (just signed by the Yankees.)

Using whatever metric you prefer – ERA, ARP, WXRL, whatever – I’m willing to bet that including Farnsworth and the first four pitchers on that list (I’m not sure the shoeicide bomber is ready for prime time), Captain Tightpants will rank no higher than third among these five pitchers at the end of 2009. Unless the metric you prefer is “salary”.

- On the other hand, this almost made the Farnsworth signing worthwhile.

- When he’s not signing pitchers with big fastballs and big ERAs to big contracts, Moore continues to do good work on the margins. A few weeks ago the Royals designated Tyler Lumsden, once considered the key to the Mike MacDougal trade, for assignment. That gave them 10 days to trade him or let him go on waivers – when a player is DFA’ed, typically he’ll get traded for scraps or some spare change, as the alternative is that some other team will pick him up on waivers anyway. Lumsden had a 7.21 and 5.88 ERA in Triple-A the last two years; the wonder is that anyone would want him at all. Well, the Astros did, because the Astros’ farm system looks like the landscape to “Fallout 3”. So the Royals traded Lumsden to Houston for the ubiquitous PTBNL, a player whose name typically winds up being “Cash”, and I don’t mean Kevin. (I have this sinking sensation that I’ve used that line before.)

So I was dumbfounded when, immediately after the Rule 5 draft (i.e. as soon as the player was guaranteed not to be selected by another organization), the Astros completed the deal by sending the Royals Jordan Parraz. Parraz isn’t a great prospect, but he’s a prospect, the sort of prospect teams never get when they’re clearing their rosters of the Tyler Lumsdens of the world. Parraz was a sixth-round pick of the Phillies in 2003 as a high school pitcher; after a year of community college, he was a third-round pick of the Astros as an outfielder.

He’s a very good athlete, and has hit pretty well throughout his career, but for some reason has been promoted very slowly through the system – he’s now 24 and has yet to play in the high minors. But he has speed (54 steals the last two years) and plate discipline (lifetime .372 OBP, and .399 last season), and has shown flashes of power. If he were two years younger he’d be a great prospect; even as old as he is, I love athletes who have shown secondary skills even if they haven’t exactly learned how to hit yet. I would have traded Lumsden for him straight up even if Lumsden wasn’t on the 40-man roster and didn’t have to be DFA’ed.

This summer the Royals traded Horacio Ramirez to the White Sox for Paulo Orlando, a trade I heartily endorsed. I asked Kevin Goldstein who he liked better, and with the caveat that neither one is a great prospect, he preferred Parraz to Orlando. If it was shrewd to trade Ramirez, having a decent year as a middle reliever at the time, for Orlando, trading Lumsden for Parraz is larceny. Petty larceny, maybe, but still a criminal offense.

- Unfortunately, relaying this story just reminds me that Moore just paid Ramirez $1.8 million (plus $1.1 million in incentives!) for a return engagement. Let’s review, class, since some of you weren’t paying attention:

1) Signing a failed major league starter to a minor league contract, and trying him in relief: smart.

2) Signing the same pitcher, who was moderately successful as a reliever, to a seven-figure contract while attempting to move him back to the rotation: dumb.

- To clear payroll, the Royals axed John Bale and Joey Gathright. Bale might still re-sign, for less money than he would have earned in arbitration (a minimum of $1.6 million). If he can be resigned for less, I’d say he’s worth it; if you eliminate the three starts in his ill-fated trial in the rotation, over the last two years Bale has a 3.16 ERA in relief. Like Ron Mahay, he doesn’t have a big platoon split, so he can be used both ways, allowing the Royals to save Jimmy Gobble for LOOGY situations only. There’s some untapped potential here.

Few players have more untapped potential than Gathright, but cutting him was the right move for this team. Gathright doesn’t do anything that Coco Crisp can’t do; Gathright is faster, but he has yet to show he can translate that speed into game impact yet. Cutting Gathright is painful, given that Moore gave up J.P. Howell to get him, but it’s precisely because it was painful that I like this move. Howell is a sunk cost, and holding on to Gathright in the hopes that he might redeem that trade would have just thrown a bunch of money at a player who isn’t going to get enough playing time to justify his salary anyway.

On the other hand, this clears a path on the roster for Ross Gload. Speaking of sunk costs…

- The Royals are still doggedly in pursuit of Rafael Furcal, and while it doesn’t appear they can afford him, I can’t help but believe that Moore is going to find a way to shake down David Glass for the extra cash. If he can’t, he has no one to blame but himself. I’m not even talking about the Jose Guillen contract, though I certainly could spend 5000 words re-visiting the stupidity of that move.

I’m talking about the fact that Moore will be paying somewhere between $6.5 million and $8 million in 2009 for the services of Farnsworth and Ramirez – roughly 70% of the money needed for Furcal’s contract was wasted on two pitchers who are barely worth a roster spot. Furcal appears to have a 4-year, $40 million contract offer from Oakland (and let’s be honest: doesn’t the fact that Billy Beane is in the running to sign Furcal elevate Furcal’s standing in your eyes?) I think a 4/$44 contract will get it done, and in a world where A.J. Burnett is getting 5/$82.5, 4/$44 for one of the top 10 shortstops in baseball looks like a bargain.

So get it done, Dayton. Unless you want your next press conference to lead off with a question from an Iraqi journalist.

- This is just so sad on so many levels. In 2003, Rob Neyer and I met up in Kansas City for a weekend of baseball, and the first place we met on Friday morning was at the Negro Leagues Museum. Rob had some business to attend to – he was interviewing Buck O’Neil for one of his books, or maybe for his ESPN.com column. I would have had a chance to meet Buck as well, but I had never toured the museum before, and I lingered inside so long that by the time I finished Buck had came and went (immaculately dressed in a white suit, I was told.) I didn’t regret taking my time – the museum was that powerful. Afterwards I did get the opportunity to meet Bob Kendrick briefly, and was moved by the level of enthusiasm and passion that he had for the museum, Buck, and the greater cause that both were serving.

I don’t live in Kansas City and can’t speak to the specifics on this case. But when Joe Posnanski and Jason Whitlock agree on something this passionately, I defer to their judgment. I’m glad I’ve been through the museum already, so I’m not conflicted about not seeing it again. If you haven’t seen it, I recommend going once, because you’re just hurting yourself if you don’t. But if you have, well, if Poz ain’t going back, I ain’t going back.

- I wondered how long it would take for someone to make fun of my crush on Connor Barth after yesterday’s game. Looks like it took reader Dave about 3 minutes.

I could respond by saying that until yesterday’s game, not only had Barth converted all of his kicks, he would have made all his kicks if the uprights had been squeezed together by five feet on each side. I could respond by saying that both of his misses yesterday were by just a foot or two, and that I don’t know a Chiefs fan alive who thought there was any chance, given all that had just transpired, that Barth was going to nail his 50-yard attempt at the buzzer. Even KC Wolf was shaking his head before the kick. (I have no response for missing a 34-yarder. Yeah, that was pretty inexcusable – almost, dare I say it, Tynes-esque.)

But instead, I’ll just respond by saying that if Barth had squeezed his final kick through the uprights, this would not have happened. I said Connor Barth was The One…I just didn’t say that he was The One Who Will Get King Carl Fired. Hey, I told you he was money.

160 comments:

Anonymous said...

Rany, when talking about the Farnsworth signing, are you forgetting that one of the big pieces of our bullpen that Dayton put together last year was Ron Mahay? I believe he makes somewhat close money to the Farnz. Moore has used a combination of ways to put together a good bullpen, spending money (Octavio Dotel, Ron Mahay) and pulling guys off the scrap heap (Ramon Ramirez, Joakim Soria). Both have worked well for him.

As for Barth, well, hey, it was a really windy day. Cut him a little slack. He did help us get rid of King Carl!!!

Sean DeCoursey said...

Dood. Farnsworth is awesome. How can you question his signing? He throws as fast as perennial all star Colt Griffin. Fast fastballs are what pitching is all about.

Casper said...

LOL!! What was that I clicked over to, Rany?? Farnsworth and Bill Pecota on Mars?! OMG, that had me crying I was laughing so hard...

Jimmy Jack said...

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/furcal-reaches.html

Looks like the dream is dead...at least until Moore calls Atlanta...

kcghost said...

GMDM is simply having a miserable off-season. Unloading Nunez for Jacobs is simply incompetent.

Ramirez for Crisp was okay until he signed Farnsworth. Then it is just insane. And you still have Teahen, Guillen, Gload, Buck, et al, on the roster.

Anonymous said...

Rany, do you have a link to Poz's or Whitlock's story about the Negro Hall of Fame? I must've missed it.

AxDxMx said...

DM is going to trade Greinke for Yunel and Francoeur as soon as Atlanta signs Furcal. Please Dayton, NOOOOOOOOOO!

Now to the Chiefs, Barth is a good kicker. He just had a bad day. The first miss he just hit a bad line, it's not like he shanked it, and the 2nd miss looked like the wind took it at the end and it just kept moving out. I was impressed he had enough leg to get it there in the cold and the wind. He will be a great kicker for the Chiefs. He just had a bad day.

By the way, is anyone else reminded of Barth from "You Can't Do That on Television" when they hear Connor's last name? What happened to all the good shows for kids? http://www.barthsburgery.com/
http://www.sydlexia.com/ycdtotv.htm

AxDxMx said...

Joe's Blog about the NLBM:

http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/

Whitlock's story is in the Star. Search their sports page.

Casper said...

You guys gotta get over this Farnsworth signing. Anyone who really thinks that Farnsworth will stay the entire length of the contract is crazy. I'm honestly not trying to be pessimistic, but we'll fall hard in April or May (like we always do) and then Farnsworth will get flipped by the deadline, Octavio Dotel-style.

Anonymous said...

I think you got a steal in Waechter.....he started off well as a starter with the Rays. His first career start was a 2 hit CG So! Keep in mind at that time the Rays had one of the worst defensive teams in the league. He is still the only Ray in history to throw a no hitter at any level in their organization! He has good stuff. He dealt with injuries and pitched about 4 weeks with a partially torn labrum and rotator cuff in 2006. That really hurt his overall numbers. Rehabing all of 2007 and than pitching very well for the Marlins last year. He is prone to give up a long ball or two, but that is beacuse he throws strikes. He challanges hitters...and sometimes when you do that they get the better of you.

He will be better than what was trotted out last season and hopefully Farnsworth can be the setup guy Soria needs.

The reason I know so much is beacuse I am a Rays fans and have followed Weachter for a long time. He is a good pitcher and a professional)

Ryan said...

We wouldn't give up Greinke for Escobar. We'd give up one of our good pitchers from last year's draft.

Brendan said...

yep Furcal goes back to Atlanta. I remember when he came up with the Bravos and watching the games on TBS and he had a cannon from SS, haven't seen him play in a long time.

Anonymous said...

Braves Blog

http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/ajc/braves/entries/2008/12/16/furcal_could_tr.html

“The other big pitcher the Braves have talked to with Escobar in the mix was Zack Greinke of the Royals, but K.C. seems reluctant to deal him. Still, he’s gone from Kansas City in two years as a free agent, almost certainly. So if Royals GM Dayton Moore might realize a deal for a potential All-Star shortstop (and yes, Escobar is just that, folks, particularly in the American League) who’d be under contractual control for a few more years makes sense. But we’ll see.”

Anonymous said...

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

http://www.ajc.com/wireless/content/sports/braves/stories/2008/12/16/braves_furcal.html

“The Braves might try to revive trade talks with the Padres for Peavy, but it’s also possible they have a deal in place with another club for a pitcher. They talked last week with the Kansas City Royals about a deal for hard-throwing young starter Zack Greinke, who is two years from free agency.”

Nathan said...

I think Escobar and Francoeur could be part of a deal for Grienke, but the Braves would need to give up much more to get Moore to sign off on it. Honestly, I think Grienke might bring more in trade than Peavy, since he's still two years from free-agency.

I read somewhere that GMDM was willing to talk, reluctantly, about Grienke, but that the price is at least young major-league-ready players and three top prospects. Francoeur and Escobar have a lot of upside, and if the deal is those two and three top prospects, it might be good for the team in the long run. Who knows, maybe they'd even take Guillen's contract off our hands?

I think the Royals can win soon, and don't really want to trade Grienke at all. However, if it is going to happen, the Braves are at least a team with enough young talent that we might get something worthwhile out of the bargain. It was only two years ago that everyone thought Francoeur was a darkhorse MVP candidate, and he's only 24. He's a significant buy-low opportunity, and I like the fact that Moore is interested in getting him.

Ted said...

The Braves bloggers seem to think that a Greinke deal is not only in the works, but nearly done and relatively painless. I have read that the Braves would like to move Furcal to 2B, though, and maybe protect his back a bit; a move which also allows them to move Kelly Johnson into LF. If this is true, then a deal for Greinke seems remote. So I hope it is true, particularly because I despise the Braves and I am tired of watching my favorite Royals go on to productive careers for teams I loathe.

But, I can see how a trade that might net Escobar and one other regular plus prospects might not be horrible for the Royals. Of course, then we are officially no longer trying to win now, and the Jacobs/Farnsworth/Crisp decisions make even less sense. I still think Dayton would have to be blown away to trade Greinke, and I don't think Escobar + Francoeur + prospects gets him there. Maybe Escobar + McCann + prospects, but there is seemingly no chance of that happening. Also, any trade for Greinke would have to include pitching, and as a team starved for top-tier pitching, I doubt the Braves would be willing to part with pitching prospects (see the Peavy talks unravelling as proof of this).

I just don't see this happening, not unless the Braves are content to role the dice with Furcal's back at SS and Dayton is convinced that Greinke won't ever sign an extention.

We should be able to find other options at SS and hopefully OF and catcher as well. Pitching is just too precious a resource, especially when you can't spend $161 million -- or $82 mil -- on the available free agents. If Dayton really does think we can win, trading Greinke should be the furthest thing from his mind.

Otis26 said...

Farnsworth will surprise you this season Rany. And Guillen will have a rebound year. I'm not thrilled about Farny but I've got a feeling he'll do well in spacious Kauffman.

Anonymous said...

If we EVER want to get this turned around here in KC and build a winner, we simply CANNOT trade Zack Greinke. He is definitely a key to our turnaround, at least for the next two seasons.

Think about this, if we get rid of Zack, we spend the next two years trying to find his replacement, and no real improvement takes place.

If we keep him, and we do improve on the field and possibly even contend (or, GASP, make the playoffs), that is more incentive for Zack to sign long term.

It also gives those free agents out there who sign with other clubs instead of us because "I wanted to play for a winner", more of a reason to come here.

And if Zack does go somewhere else, we'll automatically get two top prospects for him in those two high draft picks for Type A free agents.

Yes, we may get more for him if we trade him now, but in the long run, we'll gain a whole lot more by keeping him.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous @ 12.42 AM: You had the same thought I did: Dayton, while he seems to have a unique ability to build a bullpen on the cheap, has signed at least one somewhat more expensive reliever every year (Bale - although I have to admit I don't remember what we paid him - Dotel, Mahay). Although I think it's a lot of money for Farnsworth, it fits the pattern. (And it's high for HoRam, because I can't see him in the rotation.)

Ted, I have also read and digested Braves bloggers' comments about their notion that "a Greinke deal is not only in the works, but nearly done and relatively painless," but trades are made by GMs, who we think have more sense, not bloggers. Bloggers live in a world where they dream up trades that look beautiful in their copacetic worlds, where their team doesn't have to give quality to get quality. Did anybody follow the Mets in October and November? Before they signed KRod and traded for Putz? Mets bloggers had the wild notion that they were going to get their hands on Joakim Soria. I don't remember the exact trade proposals (Aaron Heilman and a part or two), and there was some rumor foundation on mlbtraderumors.com, although Tim Dierkes pretty much discounted it. I can't see Dayton trading Zack Greinke for anything less than overwhelming if he's working with the idea that he wants to put something together for next year. Not Francoeur; we don't need another outfielder. Not Redmond (this was suggested by somebody as a straight up trade, ha ha). Not Escobar straight up; Dayton says he's comfortable with Aviles and Callaspo if it comes down to it (and Aviles played a pretty darn good shortstop last year; I'd like to see him there again). And there are many other borderline ridiculous proposals for anybody who wants to go look. Zack ain't going nowhere; Dayton needs him to make this work next year. Bloggers' comments (and, for that matter, AJC's Dave O'Brien's comments), to me, should be taken as nothing more than amusement to pass time. It's not real world.

Anyway, I tend to be optimistic and view things with rose-colored glasses. I don't hate any of Dayton's moves yet, nor do I hate Jacobs, Crisp, Farnsworth, et al. I want to see how they do here before I start hating them. It might actually be better than we think.

Antonio. said...

Actually, by trading him, we're given the opportunity to create a big hole that can be mostly filled by other top Royal prospects...and we're given the opportunity to fill holes that cannot be filled by top Royal prospects. The Royals farm system is at a place where the infusion of talent a Greinke trade can bring to Double and Triple-A is a lot more important than two prospects in Rookie ball.

Brendan said...

hmm looks like Furcal is still considering the Braves and the Dodgers....whups

Nathan said...

Just for fun, here's a three-way trade possibility.

To the Cubs: David DeJesus (or, if they'll bite, Teahen).
To the Braves: Zack Grienke
To the Royals: Jeff Francouer, Tommy Hansen, Mike Fontenot, Rich Hill and some decent Cubs prospect.

Hansen is the Braves' top pitching prospect, a near MLB-ready 22-yr-old with four plus pitches (according to Kevin Goldstein), a 3.03 ERA and 114 Ks in 98 innings at AA. The rest, you're probably familiar with. I like the idea of buying low on Hill and Francouer, who are both very talented.

I don't know if I'd do this trade. It strikes me as a close call, but one that possibly meets the needs of all three teams. It might make the Royals worse in 2009-2010 and better beyond. Any thoughts?

Anonymous said...

seems like the indians did ok by holding onto sabathia until the trade deadline of his free agent year, so i see no need to explore a grienke trade for at least another year

Nathan said...

Antonio wrote,

"Actually, by trading him, we're given the opportunity to create a big hole that can be mostly filled by other top Royal prospects..."

Do you think the Royals have prospects that could fill the hole left my dealing Grienke? Who are you thinking of? I don't see anyone who can be projected with any confidence as a frontline starter.

Besides, top pitchers don't block each other the way position players do. Having two or three "no. 1" starters is a lot of fun if you can swing it.

Jeff said...

The Royals could have had the money for Furcal had they not traded for Crisp. That trade pushed Teahen to the bench but a Guillen trade (to clear money for Furcal)would have put Teahen back in RF.

DDJ/Teahen/Guillen/Ramirez/Furcal easily beats DDJ/Crisp/Guillen/Farnsworth/Callaspo

But thats just me.

Anonymous said...

Let the Dodgers or Braves have Furcal. I didn't like this from the beginning. Not that I don't like Furcal (if healthy he's great), but I don't like the haunting spectre of the bad back. I have already suffered through Mike Sweeney - and yes, I know he had knee problems to go with the back. But 30+ mil plus for a guy who couldn't get into 40 games last year is frightening and borderline irresponsible. I don't mind risk once in a while, but I don't like that one.

In a year or two I'll be happy to admit I'm wrong, if and when Furcal proves he's healthy. If and when he spends more extensive time on the DL, I can say I told you so, a la Andruw Jones.

Travis said...

Does anyone think Ben Sheets would be worth a try? His threshold is greater then that of Meche and his price tag could be right for the Royals. At least for the idea of 3 legit pitchers in the front of the rotation this is how good teams win

Nathan said...

One quick thought: with the Braves signing Furcal, could it be that Kelly Johnson is available in trade? That's a guy who could really fit well with the Royals.

Anonymous said...

"Actually, by trading him, we're given the opportunity to create a big hole that can be mostly filled by other top Royal prospects"

Oh really? Who else in our system even projects as a frontline #1 or 2 starter?

"The Royals farm system is at a place where the infusion of talent a Greinke trade can bring to Double and Triple-A is a lot more important than two prospects in Rookie ball."

No, actually, its not. While you are correct that we don't have a lot of talent in the high minors, 2 or 3 more prospects aren't going to bridge that gap too much. I'd rather have the 2 guys in rookie or low A in a couple years.

The simple fact is this: If we trade Greinke, we might as well rehire Allard Baird. We're doing the same crap we always have, trading our good/great homegrown players for prospects, most of whom don't pan out.

I think the last 20 years have shown us that way of doing things does not work. We're constantly rebuilding, but rebuilding what? The Royals or the rest of baseball?

Keep Greinke for the next 2 years. He says his biggest concern is that the Royals will continue to suck, and he doesn't want to be stuck on a team that isn't committed to winning. With him, and the team we currently field, I think we will be very close to if not above .500. A few breaks here and there, and we might contend.

Contending, and then showing him that we intend to keep it that way, is our best bet to get him resigned. Not only that, but it will wipe out the excuse other free agents have used for not coming here. "I want to play for a contender."

In order for us to build the longer term success that Dayton Moore wants to build, we need to keep Zack Greinke.

Kevin said...

Teahen? PLEASE. I cannot believe how overrated this guy is with Royals FO and so many fans. Please just trade him.

Anonymous said...

Why not put Moustakas in AAA to start the year. Put him back at SS instead of 3B and lets see what he can do. If it takes till the All Star break or longer so be it, but I think that the kid will fill a hole sooner than later. Keep Greieke as long as you possibly can. Its time to get rid of Butler who has no position in baseball to play anymore. Not good enough with a glove(not that Jacobs is any better) but a guy hitting homeruns compared to a guy hitting 11 in 124 games. I see what he can bring!

Nathan said...

@Anonymous 10:52AM,

You know the Royals are in the DH league, right? Butler is a 22-yr-old who destroyed every level of the minors and hit .305/.341/.476 in the second half last year. Giving up on him would be insane.

Anonymous said...

The Royals signed four guys to minor league deals today, including Oscar Villareal. How they got him on a minor league deal is beyond me, but he has shown in the past that he has the stuff to be an effective major league reliever. I think he could be another steal.

Ryan said...

They moved Moustakas from SS to 3b, because he hasn't proven to be a very good fielder.

In Single-A Burlington last season, he had 12 errors at SS in 57 games, and 10 errors at 3b in 59 games.

I believe he's also filling out quite a bit, which may be good for his power, but no so good for his quickness and agility, i.e. playing short.

Antonio. said...

Losing 2-1 is still losing. And the Indians did pretty well, but the Rangers did even better by trading with 18 months left on a contract. They did much, much better.

Antonio. said...

1. Baird limited himself by putting unbreakable parameters around his trades. Even if Teahen became the player Baird thought he'd become, who'd care because he was going to be surrounded by also-rans. Adding a MLB-ready young player to a horrible team doesn't do very much to turn things around. That's what Baird was always looking to do...and as a result, he never traded for the best talent available.

2. Yeah, maybe we don't currently have a pitcher that is projected to fill out to be a number 1, but who says we can't acquire one in a Greinke trade to go with some offensive talent? And even if we don't currently have a number one or trade for a number one, pitchers like Rosa/Cortes and the younger guys can go a lot further above average than most of our young hitters. A team is about balance. We have no balance right now. We were barely above average pitching wise...and replacing Greinke/Bannister with Cortes/Rosa by 2010 could very well be a win...not to mention the other influx of talent we'd get from the Greinke deal.

3. As this team is currently built, and will be built in the future due to precious few good hitters in the minors and Gordon/Butler not breaking out yet (not that they should have been expected to just yet), it will always have to depend on hope and on other teams having off years. Yes, we're currently built to potentially be knocked out of the play offs in the first round, but more because of the weakness of the division than because of the greatness of the Royals. Moore has made some improvements this offseason, but they've been marginal improvements. Other than KK, we haven't any talent in the minors that we can really expect or even hope to be good hitters or better before 2011. The talent that Greinke should be able to bring back will turn that statement around. And free agency should never be the spoon that stirs the pot. Never. We cannot afford that. It shouldn't be more than one ingredient or two with some spices added. The longer a real commitment is put off, the harder it will to build a dominant force, a la Tampa Bay and its farm team.

4. As the farm system is currently looking, the Royals are leaning on two good offensive players, many years away, to lead their offense. (Sounds like Gordon and Butler to me.) The Royals in 2009/10 have very limited upside. 86 games is probably what they'll max out at. And yes, that'll be enough to contend in the division, but at how long can we hope the division remains weak? Williams is doing his best to make his team younger. The Twins have Morneau/Maier as two of the most accomplished young veterans in the league. Cleveland is soon adding LaPorta to Sizemore. Detroit is in trouble and doesn't have a lot of potential for the upcoming years, but even they have Verlander and Cabrera. We have to take the opportunity to build our farm system proper if we're wanting to have a run like '75-'89. And even those Royals were smart enough to know that sometimes you have to trade away Joe Foy for prospects.

Nathan said...

"A team is about balance."

Why?

A team is about outscoring the other guy. Outscoring him 2-1 is just as good as outscoring him 4-3. Balance is overrated. In fact, I'd rather have less balance, because it's easier to improve a bad offense than a mediocre pitching staff.

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"Yeah, maybe we don't currently have a pitcher that is projected to fill out to be a number 1, but who says we can't acquire one in a Greinke trade to go with some offensive talent?"

My question is why? So we can wait for that guy to fill out for another one or two years to get back to where we are now?? Second problem is, teams don't give those prospects up very often. You'd have to find a team that thinks they are one quality pitcher away from contending, that also has that sort of talent in the wings. Not going to happen, really.

By keeping Greinke, we can continue to add pieces without subtracting a really big piece like Greinke is. If Dayton Moore does his job well, and the Royals contend and maybe even make the playoffs, keeping Greinke long term will be a whole lot easier.

We just don't gain anything by trading him, in my opinion. The Royals have been developing good players for the last 20 years and trading them away. And in those 20 years, we've gone absolutely nowhere. I'm extremely happy that Dayton Moore has pretty much shot down all trade rumors involving Zack.

Antonio. said...

Except for then, we'd at least have a lot of offensive talent to go along with said pitcher and all of the other pitchers that are considered top organizational prospects that we have currently in our system.

Antonio. said...

The Royals, as you and Dayton Moore see them, will never be a dynasty.

Brendan said...

Is Kansas City the darkhorse team in the Teixeira bidding? I mean one could never have too many first basemen umm right?

John Pontoon said...

My NL-only league is the Tim Pugh Instructional League. Every year from 1993(-ish) to 1996, someone would bid $825,000 ($30 M budget) on the guy because, well, hell, he had a starting pitching job in the rotation of the Reds... so, maybe he'd luck into 12 Wins just by being there, y'know?

Anonymous said...

The Royals have been doing things your way for 20 years Antonio. They aren't a dynasty by doing it your way either.

Anonymous said...

And like I said, your not going to find a team willing to trade that type of pitcher, AND ON TOP OF THAT, top offensive talent as well. Your little scenario is total hogwash because of the simple fact that no team out there would be willing to do that.

Stan the Man said...

Still wondering why Antonio hasn't killed himself yet. That reader's post/suggestion was the best I've seen!

In all seriousness, Antonio's plan would be nice if it were reasonable. You're not going to get a young can't miss pitcher and 2-3 offensive stars for Greinke. Besides, is there even such a thing as "can't miss" pitchers? Wasn't Phil Hughes can't miss? Jeff Austin? Mark Prior? Andrew Miller? Brien Taylor? Ankiel? You never know what you are going to get and that includes the Braves' Hanson. Throw in Yunel Escobar and all these other scenarios and it's never going to happen. Best case scenario is Zack signs. Next best case....they are able to get a young stud who has proven himself in the majors with a medium level prospect in return. Sabathia only brought back a a top prospect who hasn't even played in the majors yet. Yeah, yeah, I know teams would have Zack for more than half a year but he doesn't have near the pedigree of CC.

Ryan from DSM said...

Stan you are right on point. Four years Peavy, is not going to get Hansen. Why should two years of Grienke get him? I understand that Grienke's contract is much cheaper. If you look at a team, like say the Mets, that does worry about money the returns are not that great for a stud pitcher. Johan Santana is the best lefty in the majors. His trade to Mets was dependent on him signing long term with the Mets.

For Santana the Twins received a outfield prospect without power (Gomez), a pitcher who is long ways away from the majors (Guerra), a prospect who just underwent TJ surgery and lost most of his upside but was close to MLB ready (Humber) at a 4 or 5 and someone who projects to be a 6th starter (Mulvey). I found this at KLAW's blog at the time of the trade. To get even this kind of a return for Grienke would be optomistic. And since top flight pitchers don't just grow on trees, I would not trade Grienke now or even at the trading deadline in the last year of his contract. Good pitching is a necessity for winning. If GMDM is serious about his commitment to winning then he should take whatever payroll flexibility he gets and find a way to sign Grienke long term.

Brendan said...

Ok it doesn't matter what the Royals do this offseason when the Yankees can sign Teixeira, C.C, and Burnett. Yanks now have the 4 highest paid players in the game....hey at least the NHL has a salary cap...

Brendan said...

Rany I'm in dispair! This lassez-fair MLB economics is killing me! (Can we have a Festivus post?) This is my airing of grievances

Antonio. said...

If you have good balance all the way around, you don't have to worry about strengthening either your pitching or your hitting.

Antonio. said...

And they haven't been doing it my way...after the World Series they started trading away young players for bench players. As Mr. K was dying, they started splurging on free agents. And then after Mr. K, they started holding onto players until free agency came up or they demanded mlb-ready players, which limits the ceiling on the players coming back in return, to add to their terrible MLB players. Had they insisted on not limiting themselves with ridiculous parameters like insisting on position opposed to talent, they would have done things the way I think they should do things.

Antonio. said...

I do find it funny that we're already seeing people labeling Hughes as a miss. One, he's been hurt. Two, he has 107 innings under his belt. Three, he's going into his age 23 season. Four, plenty of great pitchers didn't pitch too well to start their careers.

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