Sunday, December 9, 2012

Complete Analysis of the Myers-Shields Trade.

This sucks.

142 comments:

twm said...

Yes it does.

Mark Johnson said...

Agreed. Also that Davis was a key to this. Wish Hoch was their problem, but, than again, he would probably reach whatever potential remains there.

Hunter Burk said...

*Like*

StPeteRoyalFan said...

Feels like Allard Baird is back in town....

Hector Savage said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Hector Savage said...

Rany, I hate to say it, but I think this should be it: the end of Rany On The Royals. I'd rather you dedicate your writing time to more worthwhile things so that I can continue to read your prose.

I just can't continue anymore with this abusive relationship with Kansas City professional athletics.

Thank you for all your passion and thoughtful analysis over the years. It's meant a lot but after tonight... I'll not return.

Kenneth said...

I agree. Don't write less. Just write less about the Royals

CL_on_the_DL said...

I can't believe that Dayton Moore just traded Baseball America #1 prospect (of which we have 6 years of club control) PLUS our best pitching prospect who hasn't had Tommy John surgery in the last 12 months AND 2 other players for 2years (and $32.6M) of James Shields and Wade Davis.

We could have spent an equivalent amount on Anibel Sanchez (with 3 more years and $60M) and then had Myers to replace Francouer as early as May this year and create an even more potent lineup to go with our improved pitching.

This is the mark of a desperate GM, sacrificing the future for an immediate shot because he knows he hasn't produced in the previous years.

Josh Parsons said...

I agree that this sucks. It is shocking that they threw Jake O in as well. Is Wade Davis coming over as a starter or reliever? With the money he is owed in the coming years I would hope they would try to use him as a starter.

Carson Cornelius said...

I'll admit it looks bad, but I think we have to see how Shields fairs. If they make the playoffs, and Shields signs an extension, it's a whole new ballgame.

Jackson Curve said...

Turns out Jeff Francouer made a deal with the Glasses to start purchasing jewelry at a 200% markup for the left field fans instead of pizzas. Everyone wins!

Or, Luke Hochevar thinks he's like Luke Skywalker at the end of Star Wars, where he can turn off his targeting computer and still throw it down the pipe.

How about this - Dan Glass, the resident business genius at 1 Royal Way, has developed a plan to increase revenue by charging fans 25 cents per letter for every player jersey or shirt they purchase that has a player's last name printed on it. Francouer and Hochevar have a lot more letters than Myers. More last name letters equals more revenue...genius.

Let's see, what other ridiculous things can I come up with that would make sense of this...? Umm, nothing. I get it that Dayton Moore has to do something, but with his hands tied by a penny pinching owner, this does really suck.

John said...

I'll say the same thing I said when Myers for Jon Lester was being discussed. If Dayton Moore had the payroll flexibility to take on a pitcher with that kind of contract, why in the freaking h-e-double hockey sticks didn't he just sign one of the free agents? He could have gotten Sanchez or Jackson for nothing but money. Instead, he just traded two of the best prospects in baseball for a comparable pitcher and he's still out the same amount of money.

If the Royals don't make the playoffs in 2013, Moore should be fired for this. On second thought, he should be told to drink hemlock or commit seppuku, like that one anonymous poster used to suggest a few years ago. The only way he can justify this would be if it works, and even then it's a bad trade, because he could have acquired a pitcher just as talented without surrendering Myers and Odorizzi.

Royals Realist said...

I agree with Rany - THIS SUCKS! Time will tell but it looks as though we gave up way too much for only two years of Shields. Davis better start and be around more than two years with double digit wins for this trade to make any sense at all. What was Dayton thinking??? I know - don't spend DG's money on free agents and really make your team better without raping your farm system.

twm said...

DM says of the trade "we have to start winning at the Major League level." And Rany's worries of a moral hazard are ringing in my ears. And the thing is, this isn't even a smart way to go about bumping your ML wins to try and keep that job. And so want is the magic trick next off season after the Royals fail to "win now" in 2013? How do you convince Glass that you didn't handcuff the team by shipping off four young players for a 32-year-old with one year left under contract and a reliever who is owed $7 million?

Royals Realist said...

I agree with Rany - THIS SUCKS! Time will tell but it looks as though we gave up way too much for only two years of Shields. Davis better start and be around more than two years with double digit wins for this trade to make any sense at all. What was Dayton thinking??? I know - don't spend DG's money on free agents and really make your team better without raping your farm system.

Jackson Curve said...

Conversations heard in the Dan Glass office today:

"Eenie, meenie, miney"

"If the Chiefs win today, I will not approve this trade".

"Daddy, I was just watching my DVD of Smokey and the Bandit..."

"James Shields?...THE JAMES SHIELDS? I can't believe we are gonna get the guy in charge of the Avengers."


twm said...

Sanchez might not have come to KC even if the money was right, but giving Dempster his third year, while not a great idea, would have improved the rotation without also cutting out our hearts. Or sign Edwin Jackson. That dude is probably as good as Shields is away from the Trop anyway, right? And, again, signing him would not have required the non-surgical removal of our hearts. The remove-it-with-a-dull-spoon method, if you will.

twm said...

Being a Royals fan rarely seems fun, does it?

twm said...

What happens if two years from now Shields leaves without us making the playoffs? Or even if we did make the playoffs once (or even twice), but meanwhile Myers has become an All Star regular while Hosmer and Moose and Cain and Escobar and whoever plays 2B for us in 2015 have turned into decent regulars without star quality? Who can I write to about that? Because they sure as heck don't appear interested in our complaints now.

twm said...

Spending some time at ESPN at least adds levity to the situation: so many there seem pleased with this trade, and they self-describe as Royals fans. One person is excited that the Royals are trying to win for once. Apparently the winter of Mike Jacobs and Coco Crisp and Rick Ankiel is forgotten already, when DM thought we could win the division and made a series of win-now moves that, I think, all back fired. Or maybe I just remember them as all back firing. Either way, we lost a lot of games that following season.

Drew Milner said...

Sacrificing the long term for the short term to save dayton moore's job.

twm said...

Worst off season ever? First we get Glass's dog and pony show in which it is learned that he has zero regard for our intelligence, nor does he believe us capable of simple arithmetic. Now this. Horrible.

And I disagree with those who suggest that Rany spend less time writing about the Royals. I want him to write more, and I want him to eviscerate this team. It won't make me feel better as a fan (winning is the only chicken soup for that soul), but it will be enjoyable, because no one in the Royals blogosphere brings contempt like Rany does, and because we need a strong voice of dissent to record the opinions of those who resent this time in Royals history. So, please, Rany, Mr Jazayerli, keep writing, do not go to ground because of this one.

twm said...

Now the little things are breaking through and inflicting their own pain. Why include Leonard? Why isn't our top prospect (who also happens to be a top-5 prospect in all of baseball), our top pitching prospect and a former top prospect who has fallen on hard times enough for two years or Shields and a flier that Davis becomes more than a reliever? And if we have to throw in a fourth, why not a reliever, why make it a potential 3B with an advanced approach at the plate and breakout potential?

Thresh said...

@twm,

Because as Royals fans we value our prospects more others do? It was always going to take Myers plus someone else to get a pitcher like Shields.
With Moustakas at 3rd, where would Leonard fit in?
Davis was a solid reliever last season, he can take over the reliever role or split with Holland.
At some point, having potential is just not enough, you have to have results, and with Shields and Davis, you know what your getting. Myers could be the next great right fielder. He could also be the next Francouer...we won't know till they start playing the games.

Thresh said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Josh Kastman said...

I know Myers could be special and Jake O could be a solid starter. However, 8-12 M/yr buys you a RF with 30+ homers (see Jason Kubel). Myers isn't a 5 tool guy. My point is I think a top-of-the-rotation-guy and a mid rotation guy are worth a potentially good RF and a potential solid mid rotation guy. I know this is KC and I know that everything we do explodes in our face. But what if Myers k's way to much and Jake O flounders. We could look back at this as an inflection point in the right direction

jmbmd said...

If I'm not mistaken Moose and Hos had even better minor league numbers than Myers. I'm still waiting for those guys to do something. Maybe this brings us enough pitching to win those games our lousy starters have given up for years. Luke and Mazarro and O'Sullivan can all be gone now and never come back as we have possibly a surplus or arms when Paulino and Duffy return. If we don't realize that pitching is what we need we are crazy. This is at least a pretty decent shot at having some.

RickMcKC said...

Agree w/jmbmd.

I believe Zack said (in the season in which everyone soured on him), that it took Gordon and Butler four years after reaching the majors to start figuring things out and he wasn't excited about the "pipeline" accomplishing anything anytime soon. Why would we not also expect that it will take Myers a similar amount of time to become a decent player? You're trading a possible star FOUR years from now for an ALL-STAR today who puts at least a dent in the Royals biggest woes: starting pitching.

I'm happy. Let the games begin!

Antonio. said...

Billy was good his first full season. And he's only had four full seasons. So he doesn't belong with that statement. And Moore could have easily improved the rotation a third time this off season without making a trade. And

Myers: .303/395/.554
Hosmer: .312/.393/.493
Moose: .282/.337/.503

Myers has a better approach (Split) and more power (ISO) than either Hosmer or Moose. Plus Shields in '12 had a 2.2 WAR (which is almost what Guthrie put up in his half-season with the Royals) and Frenchy had a -2.7 WAR. Seems like adding Myers to what we already had would have been a bigger step forward than trading him for Shields.

ChaimMKeller said...

As I said when Guthrie got the third year - Moore knows that if something good doesn't happen by 2014, he's out a job, so why should he care that as of 2015 the Royals will have no Myers, no Odorizzi, no Shields, no Davis and a $9M commitment to a 36-year-old Jeremy Guthrie?

Forget about building a sustainable future for the Royals. This off-season is about the term of Dayton Moore's contract, and no further.

Viva la Process!

royalsfan67 said...

If the Royals can somehow work out an extension for James Shields and we can keep him in the rotation for 4-5 years then I am much better with this trade. But as of right now I am not ok with trading 7 years of Myers for 2 years of Shields.
I would only have traded Myers for a true no 1 starter. I realize it would have to be a cash strapped team, but that is who we just dealt with and they had a guy named David Price.

CoolHead said...

I gotta say, people who are slamming Dayton Moore here seem to be doing it because piling on is the fun thing to do.
Myers might be Mike Trout 2.0, but I doubt it.
Shields and Davis have some major league pedigree, none of the Royal prospects really do. I remember a lot of Next Big Thing guys, but not a lot of perennial all-stars.
I think maybe playing some games before we decide the Royals got 'hosed' would be more prudent.

I'd like another... said...

Anyone remember what the name of the GM was from the Cubs in 1964? He got a potential no. 1. Starter in Ernie Broglio.

Mike said...

Those who have lived and died with this team for the past 15 years are sour and bitter. Sorry, but it's true. Those of us who reluctantly turn away from the carnage sometime in late June are excited about this trade. At this point, I think we're more objective than the Rany's and Petro's of the world.

Unknown said...

At first i was very unhappy with the trade asking if we are given up Myers, why not get Price. Look at what we gave up to get Shields. Imagine the haul for Price. The entire system would have had to been gutted. Say goodby to Myers, Bonafacio, Ventura, and God knows who else. Montgomery probably would not have panned out here, Ordirozzi is a 3/4 at best.

Best case scenario Davis finds his niche as a starter an either Chen or Luke pitch well enough so when Duffyand Felipo come back we can trade one of them for a RF or 2B. Also hat we can find another diamond in he rough OFer like Melky to push/replace Frenchy.

PW84 said...

I think Rany's made it pretty clear in the past that he wasn't happy with giving away prospects in order to compete now, and giving away our best, plus another good one, is a heavy price to pay. So if you wanna disagree with Rany that's fine, but there's nothing suprising here. I tend to agree with CL on the DL, this strikes me as a desperation move but us, the fans, probably helped create that enviorment in our frantic desire for the Royals to finally even get to .500.

Fast Eddie said...

Wade Davis, in his last year as a starter (2011), struck out 5.1 batters per 9 innings.

Tampa Mike said...

Giving up Myers, Montgomery, and Oderizzi for 2 years of Shields seems an awfully heavy price. We would have been better off coughing up money for a free agent and keeping the prospects.

That said, it will be nice to have some semblance of a rotation after that horrorshow last year.

Glass is at least putting his money where is mouth is and making moves to win. That is a win in and of itself. We like to complain about Glass being cheap and selling everyone off, but seems to have turned that corner. I'm not thrilled with the trade, but the Rays weren't going to give Shields up for free...

kcghost said...

This is a "save my job" trade pure and simple. One year from today GMDM will be trying to trade Shields because he has only one year left on his contract. So in truth we get Shields for one year and someone else's prospects. That's a "process" for.

And to make it worse GMDM has made RF safe for Frenchie.

Now we don't have a single prospect at AA or AAA who has any real future in the majors.

If Rany decides to give up on the Royals I'm going with him. At some point the insanity and heartache have to end.

crimsonblue said...

I emailed my BiL this morning to see if he had any spare Cardinals hats. This is how upset I am about the trade.

AJ Polo said...

My response... I'm leaving. (Sent to Royals this morning)
I'm breaking up w/ you. You have hurt me too much & it is clear now that you will not change. I will be staying w/ The Rays, forward my stuff there.

Rays Management,
I am a life-long Kansas City Royals fan from NJ(you don't want to hear the explanation), a life now spanning over 38 years, 34+ of which have been spent engrossed in my sports teams, baseball in particular. I would describe myself as an avid follower of statistical analysis, and a well-above novice follower of Sabermetrics(in an almost religious way, I feel excessive statistical analysis takes some of the joy out of watching the game & liking particular players & teams for their approach to the game... The Rays being a perfect example of a team you can appreciate for their approach to the game).
I woke this morning to news of the trade you made with the Royals & immediately became ill. For that, you should be commended, as I thought after all of these years of abuse, I thought I was immune to anything that Royals management could do, clearly I am not. This time was different because of the (in my opinion) short-sighted nature of the trade from KC's standpoint, clearly the actions of a GM to remain unnamed clinging to his job while mortgaging the team's future & in turn, fan's potential enjoyment/satisfaction. This trade not only ripped my guts out (a figurative, emotional gutting), but has also insulted my intellect, clearly allowing a more savvy team to exploit their short-term needs for the riches paid in this trade.
So, I am left to determine an appropriate response to voice my displeasure, & this is it:
I am writing to ask your organization to include my fanhood as a term of the trade. Now, I'm sure this appears to e the ranting of a madman, but play along with me for a moment. If you have some template or letterhead, it will be quite easy to create something resembling a press release that along with the rest of the obscene bounty you received, please just add " and the fanhood of AJ Plinio" & I will be given no choice but to switch my loyalty spanning 34+ years because it is written, so it must be true.
In return, you can expect to see me 2-3 times per season at games (driving from Delray Beach, FL, my current home), plus playoffs(a term I am rather unfamiliar with, but I see them on TV every October & unless it is some grand conspiracy staged in a warehouse somewhere like the moon landing, I believe them to be real... you guys seem to get invited every year by the way)... I also will buy your gear(I expect to be the first kid on my block w/ a powder blue Wil Myers jersey), become well versed on your minor-league system & read "The Extra 2%" promptly to learn of the philosophy (another foreign word to me) of your fine organization... Additionally, you will be the recipient of my misplaced, undying devotion as a fan heretofore... I know I don't offer much, but I think it's enough considering all you would have to do is write a fake press release.
You have my e-mail address, you have my cellphone, I will sit eagerly by awaiting your reply.

Steve N said...

If the Royals use Davis as a starter and dump Hoc. then the rotation is suddenly respectable. I figure that teh young hitter look to be on the brink. The Royals could be a surprise team this year. Myers makes it expensive but if they make the playoffs it may be worth it. (Yes, I remember the amazing suck pit in RF.)

Kurt Vancil said...

Before this trade I was in the minority of supporting DM and trusting the "process"

After this trade I am hoping he is canned ASAP along with Yoster Struedel.

I will be watching (as I'm sure many of us will) to see the difference between Frenchy's WAR and Myers WAR for 2013-2014 and to see if Shields and Davis adequately fill in that gap.

Between Moose, Hosmer and Myers my money is on Myers for having the best career.

Also, if you listed in order the best pitchers in baseball how many names would come before Shields?

I'm joining AJ Polo on the Rays bandwagon. I only need to remove two letters to get there anyway so it should be simple enough

Tim Bosler said...

Love the Royals and went to bed last night thinking of what would happen. I was thinking that they would give up Myers and Odorizzi to get Shield...was kind of right.

The fans do have a voice and it appears that the Wal-Marts were listening. This is the result when weak men get publicly ridiculed...they throw a fit and say look how good we did.

All that said, I am not as nearly down on the trade as most. I am more down on the absolute incapability to realize that Frenchy was historically bad and Hoch wasn't much better.

Tim Bosler said...

Love the Royals and went to bed last night thinking of what would happen. I was thinking that they would give up Myers and Odorizzi to get Shield...was kind of right.

The fans do have a voice and it appears that the Wal-Marts were listening. This is the result when weak men get publicly ridiculed...they throw a fit and say look how good we did.

All that said, I am not as nearly down on the trade as most. I am more down on the absolute incapability to realize that Frenchy was historically bad and Hoch wasn't much better.

wetleg said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
wetleg said...

I personally watched Hochevar bomb on opening day last year sending us into a season ending tailspin in the first month. As of yesterday, every pitcher in our rotation was capable of repeating that. Shields will not, and for that I am happy.

Unknown said...

I've been a Royals fan since they were founded. I snuck in (heck, the gates were open) to see the last couple of innings of their pennant-clinchers in the 1970s. I quit my job to use the World Series tickets I won in 1980. (Thankfully, they took me back.)

More recently, I've suffered through their bad times, knowing that when they turned it around and made the playoffs (at least), the years of pain would make the winning feel even better.

But when Glass started crying poverty so soon after pumping the taxpayers for the stadium overhaul, I started wondering whether it's right to root for the Royals. And now this stupid trade that adds a blinking neon sign facing I-70 that says, "We just don't get it."

Why should I continue to be a Royals fan? Nostalgia? Kansas City's uncanny ability to attract talented writers? If I moved to the US and had to pick a team to follow, would this be the team that I liked?

No. Continuing to root for the Royals is dumb, as dumb as this trade. If you live nearby, I guess you can't help but take some interest in your only convenient MLB team. I moved away, so I don't even have that reason.

The Royals of the glory years are long gone, just like the Leawood Drive-In and the bowling alley in the Plaza. If I see a photo or read a story about them, I'll smile and sigh. But for 2013 and beyond, I've got better things to do and better teams to follow.

Rany, thanks for the years of entertainment. I hope that one day you find a team that's worthy of your efforts.

bbxpert said...

To the people claiming they won't root for the Royals anymore, I say good riddance. You weren't fans anyway. Royals look like contenders in 2013. Go Royals!

Eric said...

Are we giving up 12 years of Odorizzi and Myers for 7 years of Shields and Davis? Yes.

But if Myers and Odorizzi struggle for 2 years each, then it's 7 years vs 8 years, with Myers' and Odorizzi's better years being arbitration years at 5-10 mil apiece.

And we get the piece of mind that we got the players who will produce for sure, and the Rays are taking the potential.

Is there a chance these two turn into great players under the coaching they'll get in Tampa? Yeah. Does that mean they'd have the same success in KC in our park and with our coaches? I don't know.

Am I excited to see 4 pitchers better than our opening day guy last year take the mound to give us a chance to win every day? Yes. Am I hopeful that the Royals should win 2 games every trip through the rotation, and win 3 or 4 often enough that they should be either in the lead or breathing down the Tiger's necks the entire summer? Yeah.

Ultimately, whether this deal is good for the Royals will be determined at the end of 2014 (at the earliest), unless Myers is in the MVP hunt or the Royals are below .500 entering September this year.

AJ Polo said...

Loyalty has it's limits & as Rany stated, it is a clear "Moral Hazard" trade. Moore has put his job ahead of the best interests of the team. 2013 will be better, but is the goal to win 82-85 games the next 2 years or compete indefinitely? 82-85 wins does not catch the Tigers nor does it compete for the wildcard.

I would really like to hear what Rany's old friend Rob Neyer has to say as an authority that can actually remove himself from the emotion of the trade.

Daytonajoemama said...

Myers is the greatest Royal prospect since Clint Hurdle.........

AJ Polo said...

Found what I was looking for:

robneyer ‏@robneyer
My quick take: This is the worst trade in MLB history unless Wade Davis becomes a good starter, in which case it's only the second worst.

AJ Polo said...

What everyone giving the benefit of the doubt to DM is failing to see is that KC will pay Shields $21M over the next 2 years... that, plus maybe another $3-4M at most could have gotten close to comparable talent w/o surrendering Myers & Odorizzi, et al.

Yaku said...

This is just plain silly. When did Will Myers become the new Mike Trout? Sure, he's a great prospect. But he's no Bryce Harper. He's no Profar. He's no Bundy. Quit acting like he's a can't miss, lock solid Hall of Famer.

He's a decent corner outfielder with good power and a tendency to strike out. Solid corner outfielders aren't exactly a dime a dozen, but they certainly aren't rare either.

The Royals are far better today than they were on Saturday. Maybe not in 2015. But for 2013, this is a pretty positive move.

sp said...

Let's face it, Moore is handcuffed by Glass and can't spend big money on a free agent pitcher. Trading away prospects was the only way to improve the major league roster. Shields is a known quantity. Only time will tell how this trade works out for both sides. Is it David Cone for Ed Hearn? Or Saberhagen for Miller, McReynolds and Jeffries? It's certainly better that getting Mike Jacobs, Coco Crisp, Jose Guillen or even Gil Meche. Myers is a minor league stud, but no one knows what will happen when he's facing major league pitching every day. I like our young core and our bullpen is solid. Who knows, Hochevar could even figure it out in short relief stints. This team still needs to get fundamentally better to contend, even in the weak a.l. central. Future in question, who knows? Moore has proven to draft everything but starting pitchers. And moves like this could attract other clubs to send major league ready talent here. All I know is that this town is starved for a winner and Moore has some real guts for making the deals he's made.

twm said...

The support for this is odd.

Consider this: Edwin Jackson was about half a run worse than Shields last season, that is in ERA, FIP and xFIP, and it has been consistent throughout their careers, so it is fairly safe to say that Jackson is about half a run worse than Shields. He also doesn't throw as many innings each year, maybe 25 fewer innings. Jackson made $11 million last season and could probably be signed for three or four years at that annual value. Does anyone really think that Jackson plus Myers is not at least as valuable as Shields plus Davis?

Or how about Dempster plus Myers?

It is clear from this off season that DM had the money to spend on a free agent. What if we had taken a pass on Santana and used that money plus the Shields/Davis money to sign Anibal Sanchez? Sanchez is essentially James Shields. I don't know if he would have signed with us, but that is three alternatives to Shields/Davis that all allow us to retain the added value of playing Myers in RF and still add nearly equivalent value into the rotation.

Is money an issue? Of course, but we are paying a combined $24 million to Santana and Shields next season. Money is not so much of an issue as to prohibit us from signing one of those three guys.

I guess the thinking has to be that Shields helps us compete for the next two years and then his salary comes off the books when we need it to pay Hosmer and Moose (who hopefully have developed into dependable middle-order bats), and by then Zimmer and Ventura should be ready to contribute to the rotation and take Shields' place. That is a huge gamble to make when we could have captured roughly the same value with a Jackson/Myers combo over those same two years and likely not owed Jackson more than a third season.

I don't know. The sunny perspective perplexes me, but at least it is kind of exciting to get a guy like Shields even if it is for two seasons during which we almost certainly will not win the division barring some sort of en masse improvement in the lineup.

Andrew II said...

Hey Rany,

Long time first time. I can't wait to read your take on the trade over at Grantland. If this IS your last straw with the Royals (as some people in the comments are suggesting) then ditch them and find something else to write about. As a Mets fan, I'd kill for a writer with your insight and humor covering my team!

Yaku said...

TWM, I don't think a couple of second tier, high dollar pitching mediocrities are going to help the Royals win, with or without Myers in the line up.


Dr. Funkenstein said...

the Dodgers have changed the top FA market. Watch what Sanchez's signs for...the Royals weren't going to be in on any top starter.

kcghost said...

I am astounded at the number of people (though a minority) who think we ought to take a "wait and see" attitude toward this trade.

At what point do you guys ask the Royals front office to fish or cut bait? Seriously, boys, the front office just made a trade that might make us 5 wins better than in 2012. So you are happy to get rid of your top prospect so you can have 77-78 wins instead of 72. Color me unimpressed.

Take the rose-colored glasses off and see this for what it is. It is a "save my job" move by GMDM, et al. And shame on the Glasses for letting him do it.

Also, I don't want to hear this foolishness "your not really a fan" if you don't support this move. I was watching baseball when the Dodgers were still in Brooklyn.

LastRoyalsFan said...

Having had the benefit of the day to think about this trade my perspective has changed a little.

I agree that for similar money GMDM could have signed a quality FA pitcher. Question is, could he find one that would be willing to sign with the Royals? This is not exactly a premium destination for baseball players.

I do think GMDM gave away too much to sign two pitchers. But looking at the system there are still a ton of quality assets on the way through. You have to do business in the currency you possess. The Royals possess prospects.

I saw a report today from ESPN where Shields indicated he'd be willing to sign an extension with the Royals right now. I wouldn't mind if GMDM would jump on this and add a couple years.

Last year everyone complained that we had a rotation full of #5 guys. Now the Royals have upgraded the rotation to the point that most of last years guys will be competing for one #5 spot. Feels like progress to me.

Dr. Funkenstein said...

kcghost, since you know the net results of this trade (at least for next season) can you share with us winning numbers in the next mega lotto?

Craig said...

I sure hope the Royals catch lightening in a bottle because if not this trade is terrible. Dayton made a desperation move to save his job and that cannot at all be argued that it is about good baseball and team building. Yes, it will be fun to see the Royals have a good pitcher. No, it will not be fun to see Frenchy STILL in RF. It will absolutely not be fun to see the Royals win maybe an extra 8-10 games and still have nothing tangible to show for it. I don't even want to think about what happens if Myers turns into Mike Trout.

PW84 said...

Good article on SI which points out that the trade was made from a mistake assumption that the Royals are just one good pitcher away from competing when our lineup has some real issues. On the other hand, if DM is in danger of getting fired this season he's gotta do something to fix the ship.

Brad Barnes said...

Unlike almost all of you, I am optimistic about the deal. I mean I have to be, I'm a Royals fan afterall. I'm 23 years old and have no comprehention of what baseball "playoffs" mean in KC. Now I might finally understand the true meaning.

Litteraly it is IMPOSSIBLE to please almost ANY Royals fan. That is my conclusion from reading through these comments. This deal makes us so much better for the next two years, AND we did not give up any players on our current roster.

Shields is a boarderline #1 that gives you a ton of quality innings. When Davis was a starter, he was better than anything we had in the rotation last year, before we got Guthrie. He is being greatly overlooked in the deal and we have him under control through 2016. He was one of the best relievers in baseball last year, and his fastball and slider improved. That alone should result in a lot more strikeouts as a starter and better numbers.

As for what we gave up, we will never know until they actually play in the majors. Myers might be the next Ryan Braun, Alex Gordon, or Brandon Wood. He could be a star right away, take four years to develop, or just plain suck. Odorizzi projected to be a #3 at the most! So you could easily assusme he could be a #4 without question, but we already have a TON of those guys!

I hate how everyone thinks we gave up the whole farm, but we did not. Sure Myers hurts and Odorizzi too,but while it may take a few years, we got some talent on the way. We still have a guy named Bubba Starling who has tons of All-Star level potential.....like Myers. Kyle Zimmer who projects as a top of the line starter who has a chance to get a September call-up, ohhh and only started pitching TWO YEARS AGO! Then there is Christian Colon, John Lamb, Jorge Bonifacio, Yordano Ventura, Jason Adam, the Mondesi kid, Kyle Smith, Sam Selman, etc. WE STILL HAVE TONS OF TALENT!

Last, good pitching ALWAYS beats good hitting. Just ask triple crown winner Miggy, Prince, and Austin Jackson. The Giants had Buster Posey and...........a lot of average hitters. Pitching wins.

Short term it's a good trade. Long term it hurts, but we still have enough talent to help in the near future. So true Royals fans, Lets stop hating, and start loving this team again. This is the best team we have had in years, and we can certainly contend in this division that only took 88 victories to win. As Tony Pena said, "Believe!". I do and so should Kansas City.

Unknown said...

I've been reading Rany's blog faithfully for at least 4 years, and one thing I vividly remember is how he used to constantly blast the Royals for not playing Kila Ka'aihue. He used to tell us CONSTANTLY about Kila's great power and plate discipline, and early on he compared him to Ryan Howard.

My point is that Rany is a bright guy, but he's not always right. When he tells us how GREAT Will Myers is going to be and how idiotic this trade is, I take it with a grain of salt.

Yaku said...

I'll copy a post I wrote at Fangraphs over here:


I never thought I’d see the smarties on this site get fooled by PCL numbers. Funny stuff.

Just a heads up before anyone else mentions how outstanding a prospect Wil Myers is:

1) Kila Ka’aihue slugged .598 for Omaha in 2010.
2) Alex Gordon slugged .577 for Omaha in 2010
3) Mike Moustakas slugged .564 for Omaha in 2010
4) Lucas May slugged .501 for Omaha in 2010

New ballpark in 2011, but the numbers are still pretty inflated:

1) Mike Aviles slugged .586 in 2011
2) Eric Hosmer slugged .582 in 2011
3) Clint Robinson slugged .533 in 2011
4) Lorenzo Cain slugged .497 in 2011
5) David Lough slugged .482 in 2011
6) Johnny Giavotella slugged .481 in 2011

And now we go to 2012:

1) Will Myers slugged .554
2) Anthony Seratelli slugged .492
3) Tony Abreu slugged .492
4) Jerrod Dyson slugged .476

Now maybe Myer’s power stroke, discovered after hitting an incredible 8 homers with a .393 slugging % in 2011, will carry on to Tampa. I hope so for Wil’s sake. But I think it is far more likely Myer’s career path looks like Nick Markakis or pre-roid Rafael Palmeiro instead of a path like Miguel Cabrera or Ryan Braun.

David Hovey said...

I almost always agree with Rany on all things royals....here I must say I am not with him. I am not sold on Myers, because early on I think he will struggle. Hosmer's approach last year was horrible, and Myers struck out at a higher rate in AAA. Odorizzi was a pitcher who struggled to get out of the 5th often times. Montgomery was a sinking ship, and Leonard is in the same timeline as Mondesi...

The benefit to free trade in economics is that if you make food more efficiently than another country and they make electronics, then trade food for electronics so you're both better off. Moore is not a savvy GM, he doesn't get the best out of deals and oftentimes in my opinion undervalues things like defensive versatility and switch hitting and unloads cheap players like Pena and Callaspo and keeps one position useless players like Getz around. When they look savvy with Gordon at leadoff they back out on it at first chance.

Here he made a deal that gets what he's bad at and trades away someone who's come from what he does well (overpay position high schoolers in draft). I like Shields a lot. I think Davis is Odorizi in 3 years with similar control. We weren't figuring out Monty, so let Tampa do what they do and fix him. If Shields isn't an ace, then Greinke isn't close to being one. Shields is a horse that allows a manager to protect innings on the rest of the rotation....something that allows a Hoch or Santana to be pulled for a fresh Pen at the sign of trouble. It's only two years, butit's not 6 months either.

Someone has to toe the rubber and go to work, and we got one of the best at that. His mindset will make guys like Will Smith and Danny Duffy better. I haven't argued about the division and ballpark switch yet either, and how Salvy is the best catcher any of these guys have ever had. I like the team and will be open to the fact that this has a 50/50 chance of working out and we shouldn't just cherry pick numbers not supporting the move...because though i hate Dayton Moore if i faced this deal, i would have done it too.

David Hovey said...

I almost always agree with Rany on all things royals....here I must say I am not with him. I am not sold on Myers, because early on I think he will struggle. Hosmer's approach last year was horrible, and Myers struck out at a higher rate in AAA. Odorizzi was a pitcher who struggled to get out of the 5th often times. Montgomery was a sinking ship, and Leonard is in the same timeline as Mondesi...

The benefit to free trade in economics is that if you make food more efficiently than another country and they make electronics, then trade food for electronics so you're both better off. Moore is not a savvy GM, he doesn't get the best out of deals and oftentimes in my opinion undervalues things like defensive versatility and switch hitting and unloads cheap players like Pena and Callaspo and keeps one position useless players like Getz around. When they look savvy with Gordon at leadoff they back out on it at first chance.

Here he made a deal that gets what he's bad at and trades away someone who's come from what he does well (overpay position high schoolers in draft). I like Shields a lot. I think Davis is Odorizi in 3 years with similar control. We weren't figuring out Monty, so let Tampa do what they do and fix him. If Shields isn't an ace, then Greinke isn't close to being one. Shields is a horse that allows a manager to protect innings on the rest of the rotation....something that allows a Hoch or Santana to be pulled for a fresh Pen at the sign of trouble. It's only two years, butit's not 6 months either.

Someone has to toe the rubber and go to work, and we got one of the best at that. His mindset will make guys like Will Smith and Danny Duffy better. I haven't argued about the division and ballpark switch yet either, and how Salvy is the best catcher any of these guys have ever had. I like the team and will be open to the fact that this has a 50/50 chance of working out and we shouldn't just cherry pick numbers not supporting the move...because though i hate Dayton Moore if i faced this deal, i would have done it too.

Mark said...

Just one quick observation for all the haters. Yes, we overpaid, but then so did the Dodgers for Greinke. That "landscape changing" signing tells me that pitching is going to get much more expensive. The first reaction to it was that Texas was looking fir Shields, and now A Sanchez will be even more expensive, and then Dempster, etc.

We do not have the money some teams have, so our currency is prospects. I for one am pleased we have some we can deal and still have talent in the pipeline. (Rany, even you had to know in your heart that we were not going to get Dickey for two B's and a C. I did enjoy your childlike enthusiasm, though.)

Don't kid yourselves: Moore beat Texas to the punch, and Detroit hates this trade too.

Bill Morrison said...

Don't mind the trade too much. Shields for Myers - Davis for Odorizzi.

In my opinion, if you support GMDM creating the best farm system in baseball, you also should allow him the ability to use that system to improve the ML club. A bonafide #1 for 2 years at an affordable price for a guy with 0 MLB ABs for 6+ years. At the end of 2 years, you could keep Shields, progress your internal options to that #1 spot, or trade Shields value for value in return.

Look at the overall opening day starting 25. They are much better and deeper on paper than any year over the past decade, again, IMO.

RickMcKC said...

So, people seriously think DM is doing a "save my job" move? If he was fired tomorrow, he'd have another baseball job in a week with a lot more money to play with.

I think it's silly to think that had anything to do with this trade.

RickMcKC said...

Very interesting take on DM from a competing fan-base ...

http://motorcitybengals.com/2012/11/26/dayton-moore-and-his-talent-usage/

Drew Milner said...

RickMcKC: Is that URL correct? I can't get it to load.

Jeff Basinger said...

If prospects were all it took to win, then the Royals would be winners by now. Let's sell this snake oil to someone else.

Myers WAR will probably be similar to Hosmer's and Moose's the next two years, and he might not turn out to be an irreplaceable RF in the next few years.

Nate Silver says there is no such thing as a pitching prospect, so I am happy to get Davis for Odorizzi.

Glass bought us a chance these next two years. The window stays open until 2016. As long as he's willing to reload in two years, I agree with giving us a chance in the meantime.

scott L said...

I honestly can not believe the heavy bashing that this deal is getting from the majority of readers. I follow Rany religiously because he is much smarter than myself and i enjoy his take and outside the box views on most subjects. But i just cannot agree with most peoples thinking of this trade. Most everyone agrees that this trade makes us better this year. Yes we have Shields for only two years at a very club friendly contract. Most likely this will make us a better team for the next two years than if we had myers instead. And for the people that say well what happens after two years? We will think about that then . I can not keep waiting.

If Myers takes the Alex Gordon path and maxes out at his abilitly,which i see as very likely, several years from now he will not dramatically affect the teams wins.

Eric said...

I've read a few comments that our offensive has problems. That's only really true if we see very little improvement from Moose and Hosmer, or we get hit by injuries the way we did with Perez and Cain last year. If those guys hit well, we have a line up of decent hitters in Gordon, Escobar, Hosmer (improved), Butler, Moustakas (improved), Perez (full season), and Cain (full season).

Add several wins from better hitting as well and significantly better pitching, and we are looking at a team with no more weaknesses than our top competitors. It's just a matter of the hitting coaches and Eiland maximizing the output we get from these guys.

Chris C. said...

Are you serious Rany? Would you prefer to hear the Royals tell us the same "we're 2-3 years from competing" BS that we've been hearing for what, twenty years now? Who gives a flying f*** about the furure when we've been the laughing stock for the past twenty years? WIN NOW for crying out loud! I'd rather take the chance than wait any longer. 20+ years has been long enough.

Besides, have you considered what the Brewers gave up for Greinke? Starting pitching is pricey. You have to give something to get something, and the Rays weren't going to give up Shields for Frenchy or Hochevar. Get a clue Rany. Hell, anyone that is opposed to this trade needs to get a freaking clue for that matter. You guys are unbelieveable.

Bobinkc said...

Rany...please take some time off. You have forgot that the objective is to win at the major league level.

Fast Eddie said...

I always wondered when the Royals would sign Willy Taveras. He was the only remaining worst offensive regular of the past 5-6 years that hadn't played for them. Next year, if Cain is injured, Francoeur and Taveras will possibly play next to each other in the Royals outfield, and you know what the results will be.

kiwilover4 said...

We were NOT going to win with waiting for Myers and still no pitching. We now have starting pitching and our intact major league lineup, so we will now be competitive. No more waiting! Props to the Royals for having the guts to make a change and go for it, and to Glass for swallowing a salary cap increase. Now if only they would dump Hoch, or at the least, if we're stuck with him, put him in long relief, where he can't lose games that are not already virtually lost.

Michael said...

I laugh at those who say Shields is not a true ace. The guy strikes out close to a batter per inning, generally has about a 4-1 k/bb ratio, and most years gives up less than a hit per inning. Stack his numbers vs. Zack Greinke the last two years. They are pretty similar.

Sumnerdave said...

Jesus wept.

Sumnerdave said...

Jesus wept.

Bob Forer said...

Has Rany thrown in the towel? When I click on my bookmark I am diverted to a web page indicating his domain is available for sale.

Lance said...

Seems folks either love this trade or hate it. I'm more in the middle. Call me a 'like' this trade fan. I like the fact that instead of Chen and Hochever as our 1-2 starters, Chen will drop to #5. I'll take our chances in #5 match-ups with Chen on the mound. But these are the things that make sports interesting. Dramatic change. And absolutely nobody knows how this will turn out. Crunch numbers, give it your eye test.....doesn't matter in December. Time will tell. I'm optimistic.

Shoes said...

Rany, keep em coming. As soon as I am done reading your most recent post I am already wanting to read the next.
Those Royals fans that shot down in June every year are the fans that think this is a good trade. Those that study the game and follow those that understand the game on the highest levels know that unless the Royals make the playoffs this year or next, this trade is drastically one sided. Are the Royals a better team now vs. before the trade.....yes. Are they 16 games better...I doubt it. I used to now believe that GMDM read your blog. Now I believe that he does and goes against the beliefs of sabermetrics if only to prove that old school scouting still has it place in the baseball world. The same guy that said "Pitching is the currency of baseball" at his first press conference has yet to develop a starting pitcher that has won even 10 games in the Majors. That is as big an indictment of his performance as all of the questionable trades he has made.

Unknown said...

To the folks who keep on pointing out that "we had to get pitching..." Yes, you're right, we did.

But we did NOT have to trade Wil Myers to get it. It was available on the free agent market. I can hear your next squeal: David Glass wasn't going to spend for it. Wait, this trade costs us over $12M against next year's payroll alone. For that kind of money we could have had Dan Haren and Jake Odorizzi or Shawn Marcum and Jake Odorizzi or Anibal Sanchez and Jake Odorizzi. Well, maybe not Sanchez, but definitely the other two.

I can understand the thinking that Wade Davis should be better than Odorizzi, but I can't say that that is a sure thing. In his major league career as a starter, Davis has yet to post even a league average ERA. So, I'll be totally generous to Dayton and call that piece of the trade a wash.

That leaves Myers/Montgomery/Leonard for Shields. So, we trade 1 guy that would cost league minimum (Myers) and two guys who won't be on the roster this year for the right to pay a guy $9+M. Sure, that 9M is less than Marcum's projected salary or Haren's actual salary. But not much less. And Davis's actual salary is higher than Odorizzi's. So, not only did you give away years of Myers - you SPENT LOTS OF MONEY, that we now do not have to acquire the RF that we now MUST get.

This trade is awful and it just looks worse the longer I look at it. The apologetics for it make NO sense.

Unknown said...

This doesn't even bring me to the next point: our pitching staff would be better if we quit using Hochevar as anything more glorified than a mop-up man. We're going to WASTE $5M on that guy.

Meanwhile, Dayton and Yost are still saying that Davis fits BEHING Hoch in the rotation.... That's some high praise for Davis: you're worse than one of the worst starters ever.

AJ Polo said...

After much rage & my earlier post flirting w/ abandoning the Royals for the Rays, the trade has grown on me for a few reasons:
-There is some value to winning now beyond the potential immediate gratification of a playoff run (which I am still not convinced this team can do)... If the Royals can parlay winning now into a lifting of the perception that KC is not a free agent destination, this trade has enormous value... Selling KC as a place out of the spotlight where you can win would be appealing to a lot of players... but this requires a financial commitment from ownership.
-Additionally, winning now puts us in a stronger negotiating position w/ our young, homegrown talent, particularly if those players are PART of the reason for success, but not the ONLY reason for success... but this requires a financial commitment from ownership.
-As much as I want to trash DM for mortgaging OUR future to save his job, HE BUILT THIS! It's HIS, & I think it is fair that he is given the opportunity to reap the benefits of what he has built, not run the risk of leaving it for another GM to cash in on... there is something very American about this to me!
-While I don't believe Myers will flop, I want to believe our talent evaluators are keen enough to have disparate info on Myers & make the decision that he is over-valued. I think we are all looking at Trout & Harper as the most recent examples of top prospects making it big, but ignoring our own experience w/ Alex Gordon... If Myers becomes a late-bloomer like Gordon, this trade could be a huge win... Gordon was a much more hyped, Golden Spikes to ML POY to can't miss prospect at a later, more developed age that took a few years to get going... I hope for a Gordon-esque for Myers, which validates this trade... & maybe lands Myers back in KC in a few years years!

Without help of a crystal ball, as Royals fans, we are on the precipice of being a playoff contender, & if we can sneak into the playoffs, anything can happen in that short season. If ownership is committed to allocating the financial resources that would be required to sustain a run, that is all we can ask as fans. I think I'm willing to see what happens in 2015 & beyond for what looks like 2 years of getting my money's worth on the MLB package... I also haven't heard back from the Rays, so I'm going to love the one I'm with!

Chris C. said...

Hey Unknown,

Dayton had options other than trading Wil Meyers? Let's hear them Forrest. Before you mention them, be sure to pull your head out of your ass first so that you'll comprehend the reality that David Glasshole is STILL the owner.

If you think that He was going to open the checkbook wide enough to sign a top tier pitcher in free agency you're SERIOUSLY mistaken. If you think that half of those free agents would come to KC you're seriously mistaken.

This isn't the roto league that you play in your mom's basement doofus. This is reality. In the REAL world (something most of you stat geeks know very little about) players don't become stars simply because they projections say they will, and players don't accept Monopoly money for compensation. Trades don't happen just because you want them to either.

Get a grip. Get a clue.

twm said...

Settle down Chris.

We are paying Santana $12 million next season. Shields earns $9 million in 2013 and $12 million in 2014. Davis makes $2.8 million next season, $4.8 in 2014, $7 in 2015, $ in 2016 and $10 in 2017. Guthrie makes $5, $11 and $8 million over the next three seasons.

That is:

$28.8 million in salary next season.

$27.8 million in 2014.

$15 million in 2015.

Dayton had money to spend.

And kind of looks like DM was planning for the Shields trade when he signed Guthrie, as that salary structure brings us to about $28 million committed in payroll for both 2013 and 2014, with a tapering once Shields' salary comes off the books in 2015, when we will start getting into arbitration raises for some of our young position players.

So, if DM had $28 million to play with in each of 2013 and 2014 but wanted to trim that figure again by 2015, it makes free agent acquisitions a bit more difficult because most will likely go beyond two years of salary commitment, but he still had options and he definitely had money to play with. And he certainly had plenty of money to commit over the next two seasons, beyond that is only speculation. A two year deal for Marcum, maybe an unwise third year for Dempster, three or four years for Edwin Jackson -- these all look like possibilities. Or look at what actually happened: we are paying $12 million to take a flyer on Ervin Santana, the Cubs are paying $5.5 million for Scott Baker, a player with similar upside. Brandon McCarthy signed for cheap (cannot remember the number). There were option both in the low salary/flyer range, as well as mid-tier options still available and affordable.



Nathan said...

Yeah, but Jackson or even Marcum don't improve the team nearly as much as Shields does. We're talking about a pitcher who struck out 225 batters last year as if he were a mid-market starter. He's not. Sheilds has serious upside and is a solid bet to be above average. Winning teams need such pitchers in the rotation.

I for one hope we are still in the market for Marcum. Sheilds/Marcum/Santana/Guthrie is the rotation of a division winning team.

Yaku said...

Yes TWM, let's keep signing flyers and rotation fillers so we can continue the outstanding success we've had over the last twenty years.

bbxpert said...

Is there some reason everyone thinks Wil Myers is Babe Ruth? He is a minor league prospect. Shields over the last 2 years: 477 IP, 3.15 ERA, 31 wins, 448 K, 1.10 WHIP. Price over the last 2 years: 435 IP, 3.04 ERA, 32 wins, 1.12 WHIP. They are virtually the same pitcher. And people say Shields is not an ace? Come on people. This is a great trade. Would you rather trade Butler or Gordon for prospects?

dkoehn said...

When I heard the news initially while driving to work I just yelled "Royals....Royals" in disgust. I was unhappy that the Royals traded away the minor league player of the year. I wanted them to sign a free agent and keep their prospects. It made more sense long term. In the days since I have grown to like and appreciate the trade. Shields is good. Really good. You can give a lot of excuses why his numbers look good, but he still goes out and executes every 5th day and doesn't get blown up like so many Royals pitchers in recent years. And he pitched in the AL east. So I think Shields is going to be good. Maybe not Verlander good, but then who is. The real reason that I'm really excited about the trade is because the Royals had the resources to acquire a quality pitcher with a good contract like Shields and this aligns the Royals resources (MLB talent + minor league talent) so that they are all producing at the MLB level at the same time. I am excited for that to happen. Like all Royals fans I have been starved of success and longed to have a realistic scenario where the Royals could compete for the post season. This move makes that dream a reality. I don't like Jeff Francouer in RF, but I'll bet his performance is somewhere between 2011 and 2012 and outfielders are a lot easier to acquire from teams than pitchers if that's the move the Royals need to make mid season to improve the team. Another side effect that this move could have, and I realize it's still unlikely, is that if the Royals win with their current 80K payroll, then maybe, just maybe, it will influence Hosmer, and Moustakas to sign an extension to play long term with Escobar and Perez. And the Royals might actually be able to afford it. This could be the trade that breaks the cycle of prospects come up and we can't sign them and they leave. Maybe, just maybe. A guy can dream right. After all, if you are still a Royals fan then you can probably associate with my feelings because we have all lived on hope for a long time.

Kansas City said...

Joe has a column up that is a great read for Royal fans:

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/40623644/

Here is the money quote from Baird that makes sense:

"We think we still have a very good farm system. But what happens if we don't make this Wil trade? You and I both know we don't have enough pitching to contend. So what are we hoping to do? Win 79 games and take another small step forward, then face the same thing again next year? It's time to try and start winning every year. We owe that to these players. We owe that to the fans of Kansas City."

The article gives us an explanation and some hope. The question is whether Moore is smart enough to put together the team in a way that can win. One problem is that Moore has been a lousy judge of big league position playes through his six years, e.g., Betancourt, Guillen, Jacobs, Francour, Kendall. He had been a good judge of minor league talent and probably an average judge of Major League pitchinng talent, good ones being Guthrie, Palido, Chen (maybe) and the guys in the bullpen.

Some of his position player moves have been so dumb to question whether he is smart enough to be a GM. He now has a test. Anyone who follows Francoeur knows that his only place on a good team is limited to playing against left handed pitchers. His career OPS is 820 versus lefties (702 against righties). (In 2011, it was 934 versus 762.) If Moore fails to have a good lefted handed hitting corner outfielder on the team by the end of April (preferrably before Spring Training), he is not smart enough to be a GM and the Royals (absent very good luck) will never win with him in charge.

He just signed Willy Taveras to a minor league contract (647 OPS and 68 OPS+). Not a good sign.

Jeff Basinger said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jeff Basinger said...

I agree, this sucks. Rany had those Marcum and Jackson deals sewn up for us.

Chris Esch said...

Just a thought. If the choices for the fifth starter are Hoch, Chen or Mendoza, don't you go with Hoch? 1-4, I say no way. But for the fifth? It doesn't matter if he kills the bullpen as much since we have good innings guys before and after now. And the idea of an occasional brilliant start from the fifth guy seems better to me than the consistently not very good Mendoza. (Chen mostly just makes me sad as he seems like a good guy and I feel so badly for him when balls are rocketing towards the Hall of Fame building.)

Kansas City said...

Royals were 13 and 19 on Hoch starts last year.

12 and 21 when Chen started.

12 and 13 when Mendoza started.

10 and 6 when Guthrie started.

Nathan said...

If your options for fifth starter are Hochevar, Mendoza and Chen, you probably need another starting pitcher. Chen is okay, but pitchers get hurt, and whoever is your sixth best starter at the beginning of spring training is probably going to pitch a lot of innings. The Royals have acquired three starters and resigned Guthrie, but, incredibly, they still need one more good starter to contend. I hope the phone lines are still open to Sanchez, Marcum and Jackson.

Loserville said...

Awesome SN...love the naked gun!!!

Kansas City said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Kansas City said...

Abreu as left handed bat to platoon with Frenchy? Could be 2013 version of Berkman 2011.

Loserville said...

There is a reason Rany is a dermatologist and not a GM. Myers numbers are inferior in the minors to Moustakis, Gordon, Hosmer, Butler, etc in their last year. Shields is the real deal. Pitching has held the Royals back and we have added 4 legit starters. Nobody is thinking how great pitching will take the pressure off of the lineup. Major league move by Dayton. We have had prospects for years and no wins to show for it.

Unknown said...

Loserville,
Myers numbers inferior to Hosmer's, Moustakas's, Butler's at the highest stations in the minors? Really?

Final full season in minors:
Hosmer - Age 20 - Level AA (Texas League): OPS .980
Moustakas - Age 21 - Level AA/AAA (Texas and PCL): OPS .999
Butler - Age 20 - Level AA (Texas League): OPS .887
Gordon - Age 22 - Level AA (Texas League): OPS 1.016
Myers - Age 21 - Level AA/AAA (Texas and PCL): OPS .987

So, those are about the same (except Gordon's who has perhaps the least impressive looking number of the set due to age and level) and not easy for you to just prattle on about how one is better than another.

I don't see how you can compare minor league numbers across multiple seasons since they are occurring in different amounts at different levels.

Consider also that AA for Gordon and Butler was Wichita; for Myers, Moose and Hos it was NW Ark. Consider also that A+ for Butler was High Desert - for the others it has been Wilmington.

I'm mostly down on the trade because it's only 2 yrs of Shields and 5 of Davis versus 7 of Myers and 6 of Odorizzi. I KNOW we needed pitching (still do, probably); but we also needed the offensive punch Myers could provide (we were near the bottom in runs scored last year - and Francoeur is a BIG part of that).

twm said...

Are the Blue Jays about to pay less for Dickey than we did for Shields? Because assuming he is willing to extend with his next team, that is three years of team control as opposed to two.

I am coming around on this trade, more in terms of understanding and accepting it, not so much in thinking it was the right move, but this impending trade might make us look a bit silly. And once again we might be muttering about how DM jumps the market every off season.

Michael said...

Dickey is 38. No matter the argument about him being a knuckleballer or a possible extra year of control (when he's 41) will make him worth anywhere close to Shields. Then throw in Wade Davis? Very unlikely a Dickey trade makes us look foolish.

Troy Harrison said...

Some not-very-smart analysis here. Here's reality, boys. You can't work on "tomorrow" forever. Sometime, tomorrow has to come. The Royals have been trying to bring up an all homegrown team to win forever, and it ain't happening. In fact, it never has happened; even the great teams of the 70s and 80s had outside components.

Did GMDM do this as a job saving move? Maybe. Why does he care about 2015 if his employment won't outlast a lousy 2013?

Ultimately the goal is to win in Kansas City, not Omaha. We now have the makings of the best Kansas City rotation in 20-30 years.

Kansas City said...

Schumaker would have been a perfect acquisition. Dogers got him. Good lefty bat who can play right field and second base.

Jayboid said...

Maybe you guys and gals feel this way too.

Year by year, July to Sept. began to lose more and more interest in the Royals.

Two years ago spent money on attending AA game trips, including some road games. Boycotted the ML team.

The 12 game losing streak just busted my b@lls last year. Never felt the same zing afterwards. This trade has me regaining some zip as a fan.

Darrel said...
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Darrel said...

"Well, believe this also. You get nothing for nothing." Julian Karswell from the movie Curse of the Demon. He could have been talking about this trade. We don't often get a John Mayberry for Jim York and Lance Clemons.

Darrel said...
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KCyellowjacket said...

For how much extra we gave up on top of Myers we should've gotten Zobrist in return as well! lol pipe dream I know but it's utterly ridiculous the prospects we gave up on top of Myers in this trade. We could've turned those three prospects easily into an upgrade at 2b or RF for this year... I hope this gets them into the playoffs, but when they don't all I'll think about is how Dayton got fleeced...

Mark said...

Dayton should trade more prospects--for Giancarlo Stanton. Failing that, then for Trumbo, or Bourjos. All in, or not?

Unknown said...

This Myers = Babe Ruth talk is typical of KC fans. First of all, Myers is seen more as a future solid regular than a future star by many talent evaluators. Second, we always dream that our prospects can't go wrong, but even the good ones take time to mature. Look at Alex Gordon or Carlos Beltran, both players with more upside than Myers. You're not giving up 6 years of Wil Myers at his peak. You're giving up 2 years of his peak and a lot of tantalizing, but none too productive, growing pains. On top of that, the Rays take on the risk that he fails to develop at all.

Myers is a valuable prospect, but you all act like he's guaranteed to become an all-star hitter, and that's not true. It won't have been true even if it happens.

Dr. Funkenstein said...

as I said a week ago:

the Dodgers have changed the top FA market. Watch what Sanchez's signs for...the Royals weren't going to be in on any top starter.


The only option to improve the rotation was via trade.

Michael said...

Sanchez already signed for 5 years, 80 million.

Could you imagine the backlash Royals fans would have if the Royals had Jose Iglesias in the minors and then they signed Stephen Drew? We would hear a lot of bitching about blocking our young guys and spending money that we could have spent elsewhere, etc. But that's what real big league teams do. They make their young guys earn their spot in the big leagues. They don't just hand it to them.

Loserville said...

Come on Rany... WTF? I was looking for some insight from you and I find this post? Disappointing...

Troy Harrison said...

Rany unfortunately has tended more and more to throw tantrums when the Royals don't do what he wants. It's too bad.

Chris Esch said...

Rany, I agree with Loserville. This is what finally breaks you? Honestly, James Shields deserves better than you. You are treating him like Yuni or Nefi or even worse Trey Hillman. Even if you want to show that the trade wasn't good, it still has a CHANCE to work out in our favor. Posnanski at least wrote about it. Look, take this as a backhanded compliment. I'm really just disappointed that you didn't write because your blogs are about the only reason to have been a Royals fan the past few years.

An one thought. Was Sheilds the target also because he is NOT locked past the next two years. It seems like the pitching staff is poised to get cheap in 2016 when our offense gets expensive. This is the kind of insight I look to you for.

KCyellowjacket said...

Guys, quit whining, he did actually write about it...

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8732913/assessing-myers-shields-trade-royals-side-aint-pretty

twm said...

Rany wrote about the trade at Grantland: http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8732913/assessing-myers-shields-trade-royals-side-aint-pretty

ChaimMKeller said...

The Grantland article is good to see - it would have been nice for him to have posted a link to it here. Personally, I've been checking this blog almost daily to see when he'd follow up the gut-reaction one-liner with a more comprehensive analysis.

pjcadwa said...

You're better than that Rany.

twm said...

Yeah Rany, take your analysis elsewhere, we over here at Rany on the Royals are not interested in such drama queen negativism.

Dan Clune said...

This trade had to happen. Did the Royals give up a lot - yes. Can Myer miss - Yes. It's hard to ignore the fact that he's struck out in 23% of his plate appearances in the minors in the past two years. It's hard to ignore he hit .254 with 8 HR's in AA two years ago. He has a lot going for him, but anything that thinks he is a sure thing hasn't studied this very closely.

KMartin said...

I have read about half of these comments and most are in favor of this trade. For me it's simple, I WANT TO WIN. I WANT TO WIN, I AM TIRED OF LOSING...I WANT TO WIN NOW. I remember Greinke's Cy Young season. Huge crowds at the park when he was pitching and not so huge when he wasn't. Huge crowds because we woud WIN with Zack on the mound. Baseball in KC was bearable every 5th day because Zack was pitching! It's possible, with this group of pitchers we have now, baseball in KC could be bearable 2 or 3 days out of every 5.
I would bet that the Royals players LOVE this trade. They are tired of losing too. I bet Billy Butler is screaming, "IT'S ABOUT F'N TIME!!!" The players know we gave up a big part of this team's future to get great pitching now. I have to believe that this will motivate them to work harder on their offense and defense.

So what if we end up like the Brewers 2 years ago. At least they made the playoffs! AT LEAST THEY WON!

Where could the Royals be in two years when Shields will likely exit KCMO: Moose, Hos, and Perez could be hitting their professional stride. Butler will still be crushing the ball. Gordon will learn how to hit 30 HR's. Escobar could be this year's version of JJ Hardy. As far as pitching goes, there's Ventura, Zimmer, and others but pitchers were not in Myers' realm anyway.

Unknown said...

Yep, Rany wants the Royals to lose. That's what his analysis is all about. Since he wants them to lose he is upset because trading Myers means they're going to win.

Jeez, KMartin, don't you think that anyone who goes and comments at Rany on the ROYALS or anyone whose blog is called Rany on the Royals might be interested in the Royals winning? Maybe even more interested in it than you are? That's WHY Rany is upset with this. He thinks that in the short term it'll net a few more wins but long term it will net many fewer wins.

Unknown said...

I agree with the trade because I don't think the balance is that bad. It's not that obvious that Myers' six years will be more valuable than Sheilds' two, and Davis' four, and nobody else in the trade is even a lock to play in the majors. Aren't you glad to see the Royals going for it, instead of counting on prospects for some window in the shifty future? Watching the Royals for the last twenty years has been like watching the Soviet economy bounce from one Five Year Plan to the next.

Troy Harrison said...

For those who are truly upset about giving up offense in favor of pitching, I submit to you 1999. The Royals were third in the AL in offense....and lost 97 games. Why? Because our pitching truly sucked.

In 1985, we were second from last in offense. Not totally sure but I think we had a good year that year.

Good pitching beats good hitting. Period.

Antonio. said...

Actually, that's not the lesson of '99. I submit to you the real lesson of '99.


1. BA sucks. The team was 3rd in BA, not offense. They were 8th (out of 14 teams) in OBP and 7th in runs.

2. Poor pitching (rotation 5.14 ERA and 1.38 K/BB + relief 5.77 ERA and 1.15 K/BB)

3. 1 (average offense) + 2 (horrid pitching) = 97 losses.

'99 doesn't support your theory very well. The best way to look at it is to take Casey's advice. "Good pitching beats good hitting. And vice versa."

Nathan said...

"Good pitching beats good hitting. And vice versa."

I always thought this was a weird canard, because one can perfectly well define good hitting as hitting that performs better against good pitching than poor hitting does.

It reminds me of how TV announcers sometimes intimate that a particular event (say, a sacrifice bunt) might be good for both teams playing. It's good for the hitting team because they advance a runner, and it's good for the pitching team because they get an out. If you think about it, though, nothing can possibly improve each team's chances of winning.

Just because a line sounds cunning doesn't make it true.

John said...

Using 1985 as a standard for anything is silly. The Royals' fifth starter in 1985 was Bud Black, who won 121 games in the majors with an ERA better than league average for his career. If he had been in his prime and pitched for the 2012 Royals, he'd have been their No. 1.

The Royals won it all in '85 because their starting pitching was ridiculously strong. They got 158 starts from their top five, and three of the other four were by Steve Farr, who wasn't bad himself.

Unknown said...

The Royals also were stunningly lucky in 1985, John. The Blue Jays and Yankees were the two best teams in the AL that year.

Both were absurdly good and it was a great development for the Royals that they played in the other division.

Unknown said...

More to "good pitching beats good hitting. period..."

In 1986 the Royals allowed the fewest runs in the league (673) but finished 76-86. Any idea why?

Antonio. said...

Can one not also perfectly well define good pitching as pitching that performs better against good hitting than poor pitching does?


That's kinda Casey's point. You can't really tell what's going to happen when good hitting goes against good pitching. That's why a mantra of "pitching and defense wins championships" is a fallacy. That's why people saying SF won because of their pitching is also wrong. SF had better pitching than hitting, but they were a very well balanced team.

Michael said...

Bottom line, to win a World Series, you need a little of both good hitting and good pitching. I think, with our bullpen and revamped rotation, along with further development of our young hitters and Butler and Gordon being Butler and Gordon, we have a decent shot at having both. We should at least be playing meaningful games in September, and that's all I ask for right now!!

Antonio. said...

The Royals, according to one rumor, tried to get Niese/Wheeler for Myers. Even though neither is Shields, I would have liked this trade better, because it doesn't sacrifice the long term for the short term. I wonder what would have had to be done to make the Mets happy with something like that.