#4: Sean Manaea
Pos-T: SP-L
H-W: 6’5”, 235
lbs
DOB: 2/1/1992 (22
years old)
Signed:
Supplemental 1st Round (#34), $3.55 million bonus, 2013, Indiana State U.
Stats: None
This is the first spot on the list where I differ from the
consensus opinion – every other Top 10 list I’ve seen has placed Manaea behind
either Bonifacio, Almonte, or both. And I certainly understand the concern –
Manaea had surgery essentially immediately after he was drafted, and while it
was both expected and routine, he has yet to throw a professional pitch.
But I’d still rather have him than either Bonifacio or
Almonte, for this simple reason: one year ago today, before Manaea’s hip issues
surfaced, he was probably the favorite to be selected with the #1 overall pick
in the draft. He was the talk of the Cape Cod League in the summer of 2012;
left-handed pitchers who throw 98 with an above-average slider tend to get the
scouts abuzzing. (He struck out 85 batters in 52 innings on the Cape, the most
strikeouts by any pitcher in that league since at least 2000.)
The Royals only had a shot at Manaea because he had a torn
labrum in his left…hip, possibly the result of pitching through an injured
right ankle. His velocity was down for most of the season, generally pitching
in the low 90s – and yet, in a credit to his talents as a pitcher, he still had
a 1.47 ERA and was third in the NCAA in strikeouts per nine innings (11.4).
You’ll recall that for about two hours last June, we thought
the Royals had lost their minds, selecting Hunter Dozier – who no one saw as
better than about the 15th-best player in the draft – with the #8 overall pick.
But the Royals had a plan, and when Manaea was still there at #34 – by luck or
by shrewd planning, and I’m betting the latter – it fell into place perfectly.
Manaea got the bonus money that was awarded for Dozier’s slot and a little
more; his bonus is the second-highest in history for a draft pick after the
first round.
It’s possible that his velocity won’t pick up even now that
he’s had surgery and fully recovered. If that’s the case, his prospect status
takes a hit, although being left-handed I’d still imagine he’d project as a
major league starter. But if his velocity is
back…you’re looking at a pitcher with quite possibly the best stuff of any
left-hander in the minor leagues. (Well, until Carlos Rodon signs.) It was a
very shrewd gamble by the Royals, and frankly I don’t know why so many other
teams elected not to take the gamble.
Remember, this was the second straight year that a pitcher
who had the potential to be a #1 overall pick showed injury concerns before the
draft. In 2012, it was Lucas Giolito who fell to the #16 overall pick because
he sprained his ulnar collateral ligament three months before the draft. He had
a real shot at being the first right-handed high school pitcher ever to go #1;
instead the Nationals signed him for $2.925 million, and a few months later he
underwent Tommy John surgery. He returned last July and made 11 starts in
rookie ball, and showed such devastating stuff that he ranked #21 on Baseball
America’s Top 100 Prospect list. (Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus was even
more effusive; his scouting report on Giolito is borderline pornographic. If
Giolito reaches the upside Parks projects for him, he might be the best pitcher
in baseball.)
Manaea’s recovery might not go as perfectly as Giolito’s
has, but if it does, he’s a Top 25 Prospect in the game by mid-summer. I could
see him starting in Wilmington, and moving to Northwest Arkansas by June or
July – and if everything goes right, he could be ready for a major league
audition by September. If the Royals are in a playoff race, adding Manaea’s arm
– even out of the bullpen – would be a huge boost to the team when it needs it.
If he’s fully recovered. Which we don’t know yet. But we
ought to know soon – spring training is in session and the minor leaguers arrive
shortly. I know this much – when they do report, how Manaea looks, and what the
radar gun says, is the one piece of information I’m looking forward to getting
the most.
#3: Kyle Zimmer
Pos-T: SP-R
H-W: 6’3”, 215
lbs
DOB: 9/13/1991
(22 years old)
Signed: 1st Round
(#5), $3 million bonus, 2012, U. of San Francisco
Stats:
2013: 108 IP, 91 H, 36
BB, 140 K, 11 HR, 4.32 ERA in High-A (90 IP) and Double-A (19 IP)
2012: 40 IP, 39 H, 8
BB, 42 K, 1 HR, 2.04 ERA in Complex (10 IP) and Low-A (30 IP)
The decision on whether to place Kyle Zimmer or Yordano
Ventura higher was probably the most difficult ranking decision on this list
for me. When I started this list, I actually had Zimmer ahead of Ventura. The
Top Prospect lists are mixed; some (Baseball Prospectus) have Ventura higher,
some (Keith Law at ESPN) have Zimmer higher, some have them almost equal
(Baseball America has Zimmer #23, Ventura #26.)
But I’ve decided that Ventura should rank higher, for a
pretty simple reason. The #1 concern we have with any young pitcher, no matter
how good the stuff, is whether he will stay healthy or not. These concerns are
a little more acute for both Ventura and Zimmer, but for different reasons.
In Ventura’s case, the reason is simple: he’s 5’11”. Short
pitchers are not expected to be as durable as tall pitchers, and short pitchers
who somehow break triple digits are expected to break down more often than
pitchers whose long levers present a simpler biomechanical explanation for
their velocity.
In Zimmer’s case, the reason is also simple: we’re concerned
about whether he will stay healthy because he hasn’t stayed healthy in the
past. A minor procedure to remove bone chips in his elbow ended his first pro
season prematurely; some mild tightness in his throwing shoulder ended his
second pro season prematurely. And now, some mild tendinitis in his biceps will
delay his third pro season temporarily.
On their own, none of these injuries are too worrisome. Bone
chips happen all the time; pitchers have come back from surgery within six
weeks to pitch good as new. The Royals insist that Zimmer was shut down last
year out of an abundance of caution, and they insist that they’re taking it
slow with him this year because they want him to be able to pitch into
September – and if need be, October. That’s a new priority for the Royals, and
it’s hard to criticize them for thinking optimistically.
We still know a lot less about how to prevent injuries than
we’d like to, and we’re still less able to predict
injuries than we’d like to. But the variable that predicts future injury risk
the most – by far – is simple: a previous injury history. The concerns about
Ventura are purely theoretical; with Zimmer, they’re practical.
And beyond that, I hate to say this, but when it comes to
pitchers coming back from arm problems, no matter how mild, the Royals have
cost themselves some credibility in my eyes by the way they handled John
Lamb.
I’m not blaming the Royals for the fact that Lamb’s career
has been all but ruined by Tommy John surgery, a surgery that pitchers return
to full health from 90% of the time. I’m not saying it’s not their fault – certainly there ought to be some soul-searching
going on in the organization over that – but it’s quite possible that Lamb
didn’t take his rehab nearly as seriously as he should have. I don’t know who
to blame, or even if there’s any blame to place at all.
But I am blaming the Royals for consistently downplaying
concerns about Lamb’s rehab – the decline in velocity when he first returned,
the longer-than-usual time it took until he returned in the first place – when
it was obvious to anyone that Lamb’s recovery from Tommy John surgery was not proceeding normally. We were told
that everything was fine right up until he took the mound last April – 22
months after surgery – and put up a 5.63 ERA in Wilmington, with a fastball
that wouldn’t get out of the mid-80s. Maybe it's not fair to blame the Royals for not coming out publicly and saying, "yeah, we're really worried about him", but if that's the case, it doesn't make sense to take anything the Royals say about Zimmer - or any other pitcher with injury concerns - at face value.
So I think it’s reasonable to be concerned about Zimmer
until he proves that he’s healthy and proves that the adjustments he made in
the middle of last season – from June 29th on, Zimmer threw 44 innings, allowed
25 hits and eight walks, and struck out 63 – were for real. If he does and he
does, he could be the ace of the staff when James Shields departs at the end of
the year. But at this point I’m a little more convinced that Ventura will fill that role
than Zimmer.
