Kevin Goldstein, as many of you know, is the prospect expert for Baseball Prospectus and is as well-connected as anyone in the industry, despite living in the mighty metropolis of DeKalb, Illinois. As it happens, I have an office in Sycamore, Illinois, about 10 minutes from Kevin’s house, so every month or two we get together for lunch and to talk politics and the Middle East – and, yes, baseball.
We had lunch on Thursday, and we actually got into a spirited discussion about whether the Royals can upgrade their rotation in time for next season. Kevin is skeptical – he thinks that people are underrating just how difficult it is to acquire starting pitching, given that almost every team in baseball is trying to do the same thing. If the Royals are going to trade for a starter, in his opinion, it’s more likely to be for someone like Derek Lowe than for someone like James Shields.
I’m willing to bet that the Royals acquire an established, league-average or better starting pitcher this off-season anyway, and told Kevin that. But he’s certainly right that if the Royals want to trade for a starter of that caliber, they’ll have to pay through the nose in terms of prospects and cash. Fortunately, the Royals have plenty of both. But if they can sign a free-agent pitcher and keep the prospects, so much the better.
The problem is, well, take a look for yourself.
There’s a lot of names on that list. Hardly any are elite names, and most of the ones that are elite have a club option tied to them. Some have already been picked up; Chris Carpenter is no longer on that list after the Cardinals turned his option into a two-year, $21 million contract. (I don’t know if the Cardinals have the best fans in baseball, but what’s important is that the Cardinals players must think they have the best fans in baseball. How else do you explain so many of their stars being willing to give up millions to stay in town?)
So to make this analysis easier, I’m going to assume that none of the players with club options will actually make it to free agency. That means no Ryan Dempster or Adam Wainwright or Paul Maholm or Aaron Harang or – as much as I’d love him – Roy Oswalt to consider. I’m also assuming that if C.C. Sabathia opts out of his contract, it’s only to get the Yankees to cough up even more money to keep him.
The Dodgers have already turned down Jon Garland’s option, but given that Garland hurt his shoulder in June and wasn’t exactly a power pitcher before the injury, we’ll ignore him as well.
To save time and space, I’m also going to ignore every pitcher below what I’ll call the “Francis Line”. Jeff Francis was a much better pitcher for the Royals than most people realize, certainly better than his 6-16 record and 4.82 ERA. He only walked 34 batters unintentionally all season, barely one per start. He gave up 19 homers in 183 innings, a perfectly acceptable rate. But he didn’t strike people out and the Royals’ defense didn’t do him any favors. Even so, he was worth 1.4 bWAR for the season. He was worth his modest contract.
And, of course, the Royals have shown no interest in bringing him back. Which is not surprising, given that the whole point of this exercise is to improve the rotation. This means that any free-agent starter who isn’t clearly better than Francis can be eliminated from the discussion right now. So say goodbye to Kyle Davies (please!), Justin Duchscherer, Zach Duke, ageless wonder Livan Hernandez, Kenshin Kawakami, Scott Kazmir, Rodrigo Lopez, John Maine, Kevin Millwood, Brad Penny, Tim Wakefield (cool as that might be), Chien-Ming Wang, and Chris Young, among others.
Before we get to the free agents on this side of the Pacific, I should at least discuss the possibility of signing one of the two premier Japanese League starters whom might – might – be coming to America next season.
The first is Hisashi Iwakuma, a 30-year-old right-hander who from 2008 to 2010 threw 572 innings for the Rakuten Eagles and had a 2.61 ERA, along with 433 Ks against 115 walks. This season Iwakuma has only made 16 starts and thrown 114 innings – I’m guessing he was hurt for part of the season – but has a 2.13 ERA and allowed just 98 hits and 17 walks. Those numbers have to be taken with enough salt to kill a small animal, of course; the competition is weaker in Japan, and offensive levels – particularly home runs – are lower to begin with. Still, Iwakuma is widely seen as a probable #3 starter in the majors.
Iwakuma almost came to the states last year; the Eagles posted him, using the system which allows a Japanese team to be paid by a major league team for the right to negotiate with their player. The A’s won the bidding at $19 million, and then didn’t come anywhere close to signing Iwakuma. Since the posting fee is only paid if the player signs, there are some who think the A’s deliberately over-bid simply to keep the Rangers or another AL West team from getting him. There’s no way to know if that’s true, but there’s no question that the system, as it is currently set up, can be gamed.
This is Iwakuma’s 10th season in Japan, which means he will be a free agent this winter – meaning he is free to negotiate and sign with any major league team and the Eagles don’t get a dime. I think the Royals should certainly give consideration to bidding on him, but given 1) the risk inherent with all Japanese players; 2) the fact that Japanese players almost always prefer to play on one of the coasts; and 3) the fact that Iwakuma can negotiate with any team, I highly doubt he would sign with the Royals even if the team were so inclined.
Besides, if the Royals were inclined to sign a Japanese pitcher, they ought to be balls-to-the-wall for Yu Darvish, who is quite possibly the greatest Japanese pitcher of all time. (He is most certainly the best half-Iranian, half-Japanese pitcher ever.) Darvish’s numbers aren’t Cy Young-caliber, they look like Cy Young’s actual stats from the dead-ball era:
2007: 1.82 ERA, 208 IP, 123 H, 49 BB, 210 K
2008: 1.88 ERA, 201 IP, 136 H, 44 BB, 208 K
2009: 1.73 ERA, 182 IP, 118 H, 45 BB, 167 K
2010: 1.78 ERA, 202 IP, 158 H, 47 BB, 222 K
They’re finishing up the regular season in Japan, but it looks like this will be Darvish’s best season yet: 1.49 ERA, 223 IP, 153 H, 35 BB, 261 K.
Oh, and he just turned 25 years old.
I know what you’re thinking: Daisuke Matsuzaka was the best pitcher in Japanese history, and look what happened to him. It’s a fair criticism. But Matsuzaka’s best ERA in Japan was 2.13. Matsuzaka also famously threw close to 500 pitchers in a four-day span during Japan’s annual high school tournament, which is sort of like March Madness and the Super Bowl all wrapped into one. Darvish has better stuff, better stats, and hasn’t been abused as much as Matsuzaka was.
Darvish is subject to the posting system, which means that if the Royals outbid the other 29 teams, he’ll have no choice but to sign with Kansas City unless he decides to stay in Japan. The Red Sox paid $51 million for the posting rights to Matsuzaka, and roughly the same amount to sign him. His performance in Boston has soured enough people on the value of high-end Japanese pitching that Darvish may go for less.
Look, I think it’s incredibly unlikely that the Royals get him. But IF they believe he’s a true ace or at least a true #2 starter in the majors, and IF they think he’ll stay healthy, I think they should make a good-faith effort to get him. Offer up to $40 million for the posting fee, offer about the same for a six-year deal, and hold your breath that even if he breaks down by the end of the contract, he’ll give you enough value up front to make it worth your while.
Now that I’m done chasing rainbows across the Pacific, let’s look at the stateside free agents.
That leaves 11 starting pitchers of various quality and availability. In roughly increasing order of intrigue, they are:
Mark Buehrle. Listed more as a courtesy than anything else – there’s about a 95% chance that Buehrle either re-signs with the White Sox, or signs with his hometown St. Louis Cardinals. I can’t knock Buehrle’s work in the majors – he’s won 161 games and is just 32 years old – but his consistent success is as baffling as that of anyone in the majors. The last three seasons, Buehrle has struck out less than a batter every other inning – just 313 Ks in 629 innings – but still has a 3.91 ERA.
He’s as close as this generation gets to Tommy John, the classic crafty left-hander who didn’t strike anyone out but succeeded by controlling the running game and not walking anyone and getting tons of groundballs. The problem is that Buehrle isn’t a groundball pitcher; he actually gives up a good number of homers, granted that he plays in a very good home-run park. It’s possible that Buehrle will hang around like John did into his 40s. But for a pitcher with his credentials, his margin for error is slim, and some team is going to pay him eight figures a year.
Hiroki Kuroda. He’s already making his case for the title of the best Japanese pitcher in major-league history, and even at 37, he ought to be one of the most highly-sought after free agents on the market. That is, if he were willing to entertain the thought of playing elsewhere. Kuroda seems very comfortable playing in Los Angeles, and refused to consider a trade this summer that would have allowed him to escape the Dodgers for a team in contention – the Red Sox for certain, and possibly other teams. I think it’s safe to say that Kuroda won’t be willing to consider moving to Kansas City. Even if the situation with the Dodgers becomes unbearable, he’s almost certain to stay on the west coast.
Jason Marquis. If you look at the list of free agent starters for long enough, pretty soon you’re wearing beer goggles and the likes of Jason Marquis start to become appealing. The goggles make Marquis look like a perfectly acceptable innings-sponge for the last seven years. Once you sober up, you realize that Marquis hasn’t had an ERA below four since 2004, but twice has had an ERA over six in that time. He struck out 76 batters in 132 innings this season before a line drive ended his season with a broken leg. That comes out to a strikeout rate of 5.2 per nine innings, which is bad enough, but even worse is that it’s his highest strikeout rate since 2004. Furthermore, his entire 12-year career has been spent in the National (read: inferior) League. Stay away.
Freddy Garcia. After three lost seasons from 2007 to 2009, Garcia has had similar back-to-back seasons, throwing about 150 innings each in 2010 and 2011, giving up a little over a hit an inning, striking out about twice as many batters as he walked. But in 2011, his ERA was a run lower than in 2010 (3.62 to 4.64), and he was a well-publicized part of the Yankees building a rotation out of unheralded rookies (Ivan Nova) and retreads (Bartolo Colon).
I expect Garcia will re-sign with the Yankees, as will Colon, who I elected not to list here because he’s almost 39 years old and apparently owes his revival this season to a steady diet of unicorn blood. Even if Garcia doesn’t, I’m not sure he is someone the Royals should spend their money on. His ability to miss bats disappeared years ago, and he now survives as a very different pitcher, a guy who gets outs with guile and command more than anything else. If the price is right and he only wants a one- or two-year deal, sure. But if that’s what the Royals are in the market for, they might as well re-sign Bruce Chen.
Joel Pineiro. Once upon a time, Pineiro was a young starter with promise. That time ended after the 2004 season. Pineiro has not struck out more than 110 batters in a season since then. He had a bit of a career resurrection with the Cardinals under the tutelage of Dave Duncan, who helped him master his sinker, and in 2009 he was about as effective as you can be without striking out even a batter every other inning: in 214 innings, he walked just 27 batters and allowed just 11 homers.
Pineiro signed with the Angels after that season, and while he still has good control and keeps the ball down, he couldn’t maintain walk and home run rates that low. Few pitchers can. He’s basically a right-handed version of Jeff Francis at this point, maybe 10% better. If he’s the best starting pitcher the Royals bring in this winter, it will have been a bad winter.
Chris Capuano. If you want to understand just how high the success rates are for Tommy John surgery, consider this: Capuano blew out his elbow in 2007, had Tommy John surgery, the ligament failed, had the same surgery again, finally made it back to the majors three years later…and he’s basically the same pitcher that he was before the surgery. His strikeout rate has actually ticked up since coming back, and this season he was healthy enough to make 31 starts and throw 186 innings, and struck out 168 batters.
Even so, I’m not sure he’s worth taking a flier on. He also gave up 27 home runs, leading to a 4.55 ERA, and homers have always been an issue for him. Capuano is 33 years old, and he’s spent his entire career in the NL. If the Royals didn’t have prospects to trade and absolutely had to use the free agent market to find their starters, Capuano would be an option worth considering. But I think Capuano’s upside is to be a good #4 starter, a Randy Wolf-type pitcher. There’s nothing wrong with that – Randy Wolf is the #4 starter on a playoff team at the moment – but I think the Royals can do better.
C.J. Wilson. Three years ago, Wilson was a reliever with a 6.02 ERA. In 2009, he cut his ERA by more than half; in 2010, he moved to the rotation after four years in relief and was shockingly effective, with a 3.35 ERA in 204 innings and just 10 homers allowed. He was even better this season, cutting his ERA to 2.94 and striking out 206 batters in 223 innings.
He’s probably the best pitcher on the market – and he’s going to be paid like one. The bidding will start around $16 million, and a 5-year, $100 million contract wouldn’t be out of the question. The betting money is on Texas to do whatever it takes to avoid a repeat of last season, when Cliff Lee signed elsewhere. But whatever team signs him, I can pretty much guarantee you it won’t be the Royals. It’s not clear whether the Royals can afford to pay for an ace; they certainly can’t afford to pay for an ace while actually getting a good #2 starter for their money.
Erik Bedard. When he’s healthy, Bedard is a terrific pitcher. Going back to 2007, Bedard has a 3.31 ERA in 82 starts, and in 475 innings has struck out 508 batters. He has the highest strikeout rate (9.6 per 9 innings) of any left-hander in baseball with 400+ innings over the last five years.
“When healthy” is a big qualifier with Bedard, though. He missed the last half of 2008 to have surgery on his labrum, then tore it halfway through 2009 and missed the last half of that season and all of 2010. It was frankly stunning that he returned in 2011 at close to 100% - in 129 innings he had a 3.62 ERA and struck out 125 batters against 48 walks. But he seemed to wore down as the season went on; after being traded to Boston at the trading deadline he only threw 38 innings in eight starts. He also doesn’t have a reputation as the friendliest guy in the world, and believe it or not, on a team this young and inexperienced, I actually think that means something. Not a lot, but something.
If you can sign him to a Bruce Chen/Jeff Francis deal, one year for $2.5 million and incentives or something, then do it. When he’s been healthy enough to pitch, he’s been healthy enough to pitch well. But I expect him to get a lot more money than that. If the Royals want to take a chance on an oft-injured pitcher with upside, they’re likely to get a much better price on…
Rich Harden. I list him here partly out of transparency – two years ago I hinted that I thought the Royals should pursue him as a free agent. At that time he was coming off a season in which he struck out 171 batters in 141 innings and had a 4.09 ERA. And the year before that – 2008 – he was probably the best pitcher in baseball inning-for-inning, with a remarkable 2.07 ERA in 148 innings.
You’ve probably noticed one of the problems with Harden – even at his best, he can’t stay healthy. He hasn’t thrown 150 innings in a season since 2004, when he was 22 years old.
The Royals didn’t sign Harden in 2009, which was for the best; over the last two seasons Harden has thrown 175 innings combined, with a 5.36 ERA, 35 homers and 93 walks allowed.
But you know what? He still struck out 166 batters in those 175 innings. When healthy, and when his control doesn’t desert him, he still has the ability to dominate. Those are two mighty large conditions, granted. But precisely because of them, Harden is not going to get anywhere close to as much money as he did two years ago, when he got $7.5 million guaranteed from the Rangers, or even last year, when he signed with Oakland for $1.5 million. Given his track record, he probably won’t get a seven-figure offer this winter; he might not even get a guaranteed deal.
So while I don’t think Harden is the established starter the Royals are looking for, I think he would make for a fine lottery ticket. Bring him into spring training, and if you get lucky, maybe you can coax 20 above-average starts out of his right arm. If not, maybe he finds new life (and better health) in the bullpen. And if not, then you cut your losses. They won’t be much.
Every pitcher I’ve listed so far is either a bad fit for the Royals or is unlikely to sign with them for what they’re willing to pay. The pitchers below, on the other hand, are pitchers who I think fit the Royals very well, and yet might fit into the team’s payroll restrictions. There are only two of them, unfortunately.
Javier Vazquez. Vazquez has been, for his career, as underrated as any starting pitcher in the majors. (Want to win a bet? Javier Vazquez leads all active pitchers in career strikeouts. And it’s not even close.)
It helps that he’s always been healthy; he made 32 or more starts ten straight years from 2000 to 2009, and when his streak ended in 2010, it was because of ineffectiveness. As recently as 2009, Vazquez was one of the best starters in baseball; Keith Law famously got some flak (from Cardinals fans – we got your back, Keith!) for giving Vazquez a second-place vote on his Cy Young ballot. That year Vazquez threw 219 innings, walked 44 batters, and struck out 238. He was fantastic.
The Braves traded him to the Yankees – one of the pieces they got in return was Melky Cabrera – and Vazquez was, for the second time in his career, a flop in New York. In 2004 the Yankees had traded Nick Johnson and Juan Rivera to Montreal for Vazquez, and he responded with a 4.91 ERA. In 2010 he was even worse, but whereas everyone thought his problem was mental the first time around, this time the rise in his ERA corresponded with a decline in the speed on his fastball.
The Marlins signed him to a one-year deal last winter, and he started 2011 worse than ever; his ERA through 14 starts was 6.85, and he had allowed 86 hits and 33 walks in 71 innings. But from June 21st through the end of the season, here are his numbers:
122 innings
92 hits
9 homers
17 walks
112 strikeouts
1.85 ERA
Yeah.
According to Fangraphs, the average velocity on Vazquez’s fastball ranged between 91.1 and 91.8 mph from 2005 through 2009. In 2010, it dropped all the way to 88.7, but last year it rebounded to 90.4 mph. I don’t have a start-by-start breakdown, but it seems reasonable to assume that, based on his astonishing second-half turnaround, he started the season at 88-89 – roughly the same velocity he had in 2010 – and finished the season around 91-92 – roughly the velocity he had at his peak.
There’s a story here, and I don’t know what it is. And I don’t think the Royals should gamble on Vazquez without having some sort of explanation as to what happened, and some reasonable assurance that the Vazquez they’d be signing is not the one who stunk up the joint in 2010 and the first half of 2011.
But for that very reason, and because he turns 36 next July, Vazquez is not likely to get a three-year deal from anyone this winter. Vazquez is, as far as I can tell, the only starting pitcher with high-end upside that the Royals can acquire without trading tons of prospects or spending tons of cash. There is a risk here, no doubt. Even at his peak, Vazquez was rarely dominant – 2009 is really the only great season of his career. Vazquez routinely struck out three or four batters for every walk in his prime, but he always surrendered home runs – he’s allowed at least 20 homers in every season of his career. From 2004 to 2006 his ERAs read 4.91, 4.42, and 4.84.
Precisely because he’s such a fly-ball pitcher, though, Vazquez ought to be suited for Kauffman Stadium. (In six career starts at Kauffman – granted, he was facing the Royals’ offense – he has allowed just two homers in 40 innings.) The risk of serious injury with him is about as low as it can be for any 35-year-old pitcher, so the worst-case scenario is that he gives you 190 slightly below-average innings. The best-case scenario is that he gets some downballot Cy Young votes.
My guess is that Vazquez will get some very attractive one-year deals, and at least a few two-year offers. I doubt anyone will offer him three years. If I’m the Royals – assuming that I have a satisfactory explanation for his struggles the last two years - I strike early with a two-year deal, maybe for $24 million. If Vazquez wants the security of a three-year deal and is willing to accept a lower annual salary, I’d consider 3/$27 or even 3 for $30 million. The Royals can easily fit that salary into their payroll, and they don’t have to touch their farm system (Vazquez isn’t even a Type B free agent.)
There’s a risk here, no doubt; there always is when signing a 35-year-old starting pitcher. But the price reflects that risk. The Royals can sign Vazquez knowing that even if he blows out his arm in March and never throws a pitch for the team, they’ll have the money and prospects to pursue their other needs, both this winter and in the off-seasons to come.
And finally…
Edwin Jackson.
Five years ago, the Royals shocked the industry by outbidding everyone for Gil Meche, signing Meche to a five-year, $55 million deal. The Royals then mismanaged his arm as badly as a team can do so without actually plunging a machete into his shoulder. The horrible malpractice committed in the summer of 2009 obscures the fact that the decision to sign Meche was actually pretty brilliant.
When he signed, Meche was coming off a season with a 4.48 ERA – in Safeco, one of the AL’s best pitchers’ parks – and had walked 84 batters in 187 innings. His performance obscured the fact that there were some legitimate reasons to like Meche going forward:
The Royals thought Meche could be fixed with a few mechanical changes, and they were right – straight out of the chute in 2007, he was a better pitcher than ever. He led the AL in starts in 2007 and 2008, posted ERAs of 3.67 and 3.98, and he had a 3.31 ERA in 14 starts after throwing a shutout on June 16, 2009, the start which began Meche’s descent into mismanagement hell.
- He was very young for a free agent; he had just turned 28 that September.
- He had struck out 7.5 batters per 9 innings, an above-average rate.
- He had good stuff, as attested by the fact that he was a former first-round pick.
The Royals thought Meche could be fixed with a few mechanical changes, and they were right – straight out of the chute in 2007, he was a better pitcher than ever. He led the AL in starts in 2007 and 2008, posted ERAs of 3.67 and 3.98, and he had a 3.31 ERA in 14 starts after throwing a shutout on June 16, 2009, the start which began Meche’s descent into mismanagement hell.
A Gil Meche-level starting pitcher is exactly what the Royals need this winter. As much as they’d like to acquire a true ace, there are very few of those around, and literally none in this year’s free-agent market. The best they can do in free agency is to sign the next Gil Meche, a guy who takes the ball every fifth day and pitches at the level of a #2 starter.
More than anyone on the market, Edwin Jackson could be that guy. The similarities between him and Meche are impressive:
- Like Meche, Jackson is very young for a free agent. Like Meche had in his free agent year, Jackson just turned 28 this September.
- Jackson wasn’t a first-round pick like Meche – he was taken in the 6th round – but he was an elite prospect in the minor leagues. He made his major-league debut on his 20th birthday – and beat Randy Johnson. That winter, I ranked him among the top ten prospects in all of baseball, one slot behind Zack Greinke, and I wrestled with the decision of which of the two should rank higher for a very long time.
- Like Meche, he has been a disappointment for much of his career. In Meche’s case, a shoulder injury cost him two full years, and it took him years after he returned to get his stuff back. In Jackson’s case, he’s been healthy – another point in his favor – but he struggled with his command for several years.
While Jackson made his major-league debut in 2003, he didn’t stick in the majors until 2007, on a Devil Rays team that had no better options. He has made at least 31 starts in each of the five years since. His walk rate has steadily improved over that time; in 2007 he walked 85 (unintentional) batters in 161 innings, a rate of 4.75 walks per 9. This year his rate was down to 2.61 per 9. He’s improved his control without surrendering his ability to miss bats; he’s whiffed a shade under 7 batters per 9 innings over the last five years.
Unlike Meche, Jackson is already a pretty good starting pitcher – take out his first full season as a starter, and over the last four years he has a 4.06 ERA and a 106 ERA+. But like Meche, I think there’s potential for him to get better. His stuff is better than his numbers; he’s still plagued by inconsistency. Unlike almost every pitcher above, he has spent most of his career in the American League, and has handled the stronger league just fine.
In an off-season that features such a weak crop of free agent starters, to me, Edwin Jackson should clearly be the Royals’ #1 target. Much like they made a pre-emptive offer to Meche that looked like an overpay at first, I think the Royals should make a very attractive offer to Jackson as soon as they can. I’m thinking 4 years, $52 million, or possibly 5 years, $60 million if they have faith that his delivery will hold up. Once Wilson and Sabathia sign, Jackson will move to the head of the class, so money that might appear to be an overpay in mid-November might look like a bargain by Christmas.
Presumably, Edwin Jackson and his agent know this. And I would not be at all surprised if the Jackson sweepstakes get truly wacky, and some team offers him John Lackey money. If that’s the case, I certainly won’t fault the Royals for not being that team, just as I didn’t fault them for not taking my advice on a certain free agent outfielder last season once his price tag had crossed the threshold. (Please don’t click that link. Much appreciated.)
But I think it would behoove the Royals to make an aggressive offer as soon as the free-agent window opens. Signing Edwin Jackson would improve the Royals’ rotation significantly, without surrendering a prospect. (Jackson is a Type B free agent – the Cardinals would get a supplemental pick, but the Royals would not lose one.)
So to sum up, here’s my suggestion for the Royals: go hard after Edwin Jackson. If he can’t be corralled, go hard after Javier Vazquez. (And if you can sign both of them, even better.) If Rich Harden is willing to sign for cheap, roll the dice. Kick the tires on Erik Bedard. Place a serious bid on Yu Darvish.
Otherwise, you’re better off saving your money and turning to the trade market instead. Next time, I’ll look at the many options that the Royals ought to consider in that regard.