Sixteen days ago, I was at U.S. Cellular Park simply
hoping – albeit with a good deal of confidence – that the Royals would clinch a
spot in the Wild Card game that night, a spot which still put them four tiers
away from a world championship, a spot equivalent to playing in the Sweet
Sixteen round of March Madness.
Twelve days ago, I was at Kauffman Stadium simply hoping –
with almost no confidence whatsoever – that the Royals could overcome a
four-run deficit with six outs to go. Somehow surviving that game was all that
my mind was capable of processing at that moment.
Today, anything short of winning the World Series would
be a disappointment. Failing to reach the World Series would be almost
devastating. With great success comes great expectations. I can almost see how
15 years of constant playoff appearances could turn someone into an
insufferable Cardinals fan. Almost.
But if expectations have been raised, so has the payoff.
For the better part of two decades, when someone would ask me how I’d react if
the Royals won the World Series, I didn’t know how to fathom the question. I
think it was Joe Posnanski who once framed a similar question as analogous to asking
“how do you wash a unicorn?” I was having enough trouble comprehending how I’d
react to a humble playoff spot.
And yet here the Royals are, with six wins in the postseason and just six wins away from a
championship, just two wins away from playing in baseball’s marquis event.
Mathematically speaking, the odds that a team that wins the first two games of
a best-of-seven series will go on to win the series is 81.25%. The Royals’ odds
are probably higher than that, because they won the first two games on the road,
and only need to win two of three in Kansas City to keep the series from even
going back to Baltimore. In LCS history, 11 teams have won the first two games
on the road in a best-of-seven, and all 11 won the series. Of course, that
perfect correlation does not hold up in the World Series – that was taken care
of by the 1985 Royals. (And later by the 1986 Mets and 1996 Yankees.) The
Royals are in a good place right now. But nothing is guaranteed.
They’re in this place because they continue to work
late-inning magic at a scale never before seen in the postseason. They are the
first team in major league history to win four postseason games in extra
innings, and they accomplished that feat by Game 1 of the ALCS. They’ve won all
six of their playoff games so far – something only the 1970 Orioles, 1976 Reds,
and 2007 Rockies had accomplished – despite entering the ninth inning trailing
as often as they were leading (once each). They’ve scored the winning runs in
the ninth inning once, the tenth inning once, the eleventh inning twice, and
the twelfth inning once.
From the ninth inning on, the Royals have outscored their
opponents 12 to 2 in the postseason. From the eighth inning on, it’s 15 to 3,
and the run the Royals allowed in the eighth inning came in the clincher
against the Angels when they were leading 8-2.
Averaging two runs a game after the eighth inning is a trait that is utterly unsustainable.
It is also a trait that, when accomplished over a six-game stretch in the
postseason, can profoundly and permanently change the narrative of an entire
franchise. The Royals were six outs away from being an afterthought to these playoffs.
They are now the greatest story in sports, and this has been the greatest two
weeks in my life as a sports fan.
So yeah, it would be a disappointment if they don’t go all
the way. But only because I now know that they have a legitimate chance to be
the greatest sports story I’ll have the privilege to witness in my lifetime.
The way they beat the Orioles in the first two games was
by beating the Orioles at their own game. While the Orioles had more steals (2)
than the Royals (1) in Games 1 and 2, the Royals out-homered Baltimore, 4-1. As
I talked about last time, this was both the key to the Royals’ success, and not
nearly as improbable as it would have seemed from the team’s respective home
run totals during the season. Granted, no one was calling an Alcides Escobar
shot, but Alex Gordon’s home run off of Darren O’Day was about as unsurprising
as a home run can be. And while in a vacuum a guy with Mike Moustakas’ regular
season numbers unloading for four homers in six playoff games would be a
massive upset, an examination of his track record would suggest that the real
upset is how poorly he has hit over the past two regular seasons.
I’m not going to tell you that six playoff games means
that Moustakas, at age 26, after hitting .212/.271/.361 during the season,
after hitting .233/.284/.364 last
season, has finally and instantaneously figured out how to hit. But I am going
to say that it wouldn’t shock me at all if he has. Gordon hit .232/.324/.378 in
2009 and .215/.315/.355 in 2010 – when offensive levels were higher – before breaking
out with a .303/.376/.502 campaign in 2011, when he was 27 years old. Like
Gordon, Moustakas was the #2 overall pick in the draft. Like Gordon, he was a
top prospect in the minors, albeit not the
top prospect. Like Gordon, he showed promise in his first two seasons in the
majors, albeit not quite as much promise.
Like Gordon, Moustakas was thought of so highly because
he was a very gifted player. Like Gordon, he struggled to make adjustments at
the major league level. Gordon finally figured things out after revamping his
swing with Kevin Seitzer over the off-season. Moustakas hasn’t done that, but
he has attempted to change his
approach at the plate during the
season, which might be even more difficult. He had more opposite-field hits in
the last six weeks of the season (9) than he had all year to that point (8).
While his four home runs in the playoffs have all been pulled, most of the
balls he’s put in play this month have been hit to the opposite field. Teams
are still shifting against him, but it’s no longer clear that it’s hurting him
the way it has all season.
As Fangraphs pointed
out, Moustakas’ struggles this year really came down to him getting
absolutely killed by the shift, as his BABIP was a mere .220, the third year in
a row that his BABIP had dropped (.296 to .274 to .257 to .220). Some of that
is bad luck, and some of that may be an inability to adjust – but Moustakas
finally started to show an ability to adjust late in the year. Maybe parking
four balls in the seats in a five-game stretch – the first time in his entire career he’s hit four homers in a five-game
stretch - is a side benefit to hitting to all fields, or maybe it’s just
another glorious fluke. But it’s enough to make me think that, even at age 26,
we can’t conclude that he’s a bust. By happy coincidence, this stretch all but
guarantees that he’ll get an extended opportunity next season to prove that he
isn’t one.
Ned Yost was far from perfect in Games 1 and 2, making
the one mistake I was most afraid he would make, sticking with a struggling
starting pitcher for too long. Neither James Shields nor Yordano Ventura were
on their game – Ventura, in particular, had diminished velocity and erratic
command from the beginning of the game – and yet both were left out there even
when they got into a jam in the middle innings. Shields gave up singles to the
first two hitters he faced in the fifth inning, but because he was in line for
a win, and because the rules state that a starting pitcher must complete five
innings to qualify for a win, there was little doubt that Yost would stick with
him. Shields gave up an RBI double with one out, and with two outs and the
bases loaded, gave up a two-run single that nearly erased what had been a
four-run lead.
The next night, Ventura pitched the fifth inning, and
gave up back-to-back singles with one out to put the tying run at third base;
when the Royals couldn’t turn a double play on Nelson Cruz – in part because
Omar Infante’s lame shoulder kept him from putting much mustard on the relay
throw to first base – the Orioles tied the game. Ventura was then allowed to
pitch the sixth inning, and while he retired the first two batters – thanks to
some typical outfield wizardry from Lorenzo Cain – he pulled himself from the
game after feeling tightness in his shoulder.
Keeping Ventura in the game hurt the Royals less in terms
of its impact on the game, but it might be the more indefensible error of the
two, because it was so clear from watching the game that Ventura was laboring
all afternoon. The Royals seem not at all concerned about his shoulder, and given
their training staff’s track record, they have earned the benefit of the doubt.
But it’s still something that could have been avoided.
But in Yost’s defense, those are about the only mistakes he’s
made. He replaced Shields with Brandon Finnegan and Finnegan immediately
allowed the tying run to score on a walk, a hard-hit single, a potential
pickoff play that turned into a double steal when Escobar’s throw hit Jonathan
Schoop in the back, and a fluke pop-up single that landed in no-man’s land
behind the mound. With the go-ahead runs aboard, Yost summoned Kelvin Herrera,
who himself had come out of a game mid-batter just a week ago, and Herrera got
a pair of groundouts, including a huge GIDP that kept the game tied. Yost then
brought Herrera out for a second inning and he breezed through it. Wade Davis
pitched the eighth, and after retiring the Orioles on just seven pitches, Davis
was asked to pitch the ninth as well, after the Royals had squandered their own
bases loaded, none out situation, and Davis struck out the 2-3-4 hitters in the
Orioles’ lineup on 11 pitches, one of the most devastating and important
innings thrown by any pitcher this season. Davis was rewarded with the win when
the Royals put up a three-spot in the tenth inning.
Herrera had been asked to get six outs in a game just
three times this year, the last time on July 22nd. Davis had been asked to get
six outs in a game just three times this year, the last time on May 29th. They
had never been asked to get six outs in the same game. But with the opening game
of the ALCS on the line, with four days of rest coming in, with an off-day
looming two days ahead, Yost adapted to the circumstances. That’s all we’ve
been asking him to do all season. It’s as if all the mistakes and frustrations
he’s given us for all these years were designed so that he would be ready for
this moment. He was, and Herrera and Davis responded by keeping the game tied
until the Royals could mount their rally.
Yost was able to get an inning out of both Herrera and
Davis in Game 2, and with Danny Duffy warming in the pen in the ninth, the
Royals mounted another rally that activated Greg Holland instead. Omar Infante
beat out an infield single on a swinging bunt – that’s about the best he can
offer us these days, and we’ll take it – and Yost weaponized Terrance Gore. He
then had Moustakas bunt, which seems sub-optimal given Gore’s speed, but
remember, this is exactly how he played it in the Wild Card game. With a
left-handed closer on the mound, Yost decided that even with Dyson or Gore at
first base, it was better to bunt them to second and then let them try to steal
third, because while left-handed pitchers have a significant advantage holding runners
at first base (since they’re staring right at them), they are at a slight
disadvantage when it comes to holding runners at third base because their back
is turned.
Gore didn’t get a chance to steal third, however, because
on the first pitch, Escobar grounded a ball inside the first base line for an
RBI double. However, Gore’s speed still might have contributed to this play,
because with second baseman Schoop having to play close to the bag to keep Gore’s
lead honest, first baseman Steve Pearce was forced to play farther off the
line. Pearce might not have gotten to that ball regardless, but it’s certainly
something you have to take into consideration on the play. Dyson then used his
speed to induce an error by third baseman Ryan Flaherty on his groundball, and
then Cain – the MVP of this series so far – roped a single into left field for
an insurance run.
And now the Royals come home, and while they have to rely
on Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Vargas in Games 3 and 4, the Orioles also have to
turn to their third and fourth starters, which means the Royals will get to see
Wei-Yin Chen and Miguel Gonzalez. Chen has very good command but is hittable,
allowing 193 hits and 23 homers in 186 innings this year; Gonzalez had a 3.23
ERA but a 4.89 FIP, as his peripheral numbers (25 homers, 51 walks, 111 Ks in
159 innings) simply aren’t that impressive. The Orioles might have a slight
edge in the Game 3 matchup, but the Royals have at least a slight edge in Game
4. And while they adapted just fine to playing in Camden Yards, the Royals
should have the edge from playing at Kauffman Stadium, given how reliant the
Orioles are on homers to power their offense, and given that Guthrie and Vargas
are both susceptible to the long ball.
And if the Royals should lose both games, well, they’ll
basically be where they were when this series started – tied up, with the
Orioles holding home-field advantage. But if they so much as split the next two
games, they’ll be a win away from the World Series, with three cracks at it.
I’m not taking anything for granted, and if you’ve been a
Royals fan for longer than about three months, you know not to take anything
for granted either. But I hope it’s not hubris to say that I feel pretty good
about our chances. And that I feel better about being a Royals fan than I have in
29 years. Truthfully, I wasn't sure I would ever feel as good about being a Royals fan as I do right now.
