Reason #1: The Boss.

Like there was ever any doubt.

There’s little to say about Dayton Moore that hasn’t been said before, and probably said by me before. But nearly two years after he was hired, it is undeniable that the day the Royals hit rock bottom was the day before they hired Moore. (True story: there was a rumor going around shortly before Moore was hired that the Royals were prepared to offer the GM position to…Steve Phillips. For about 48 hours I was contemplating switching my allegiances to a less star-crossed ballclub. Like, say, the Cubs.)

Allard Baird was not, in the grand summation of things, a terrible GM. He made some terrible moves, to be sure. Some were of his own volition (Johnny Damon and Mark Ellis for Angel Berroa and Roberto Hernandez.) Some were forced upon him (Jermaine Dye for Neifi Perez.) But he also made some moves that were truly inspired. Baird traded Carlos Beltran for Mark Teahen, John Buck, and Mike Wood, a trade which has at various times over the years looked terrible, brilliant, and terrible again, but from where I’m standing today looks like an excellent trade given the circumstances. (Especially when you consider that a lot of analysts thought the Royals would have been better off going after the Angels’ star third base prospect, Dallas McPherson.)

When Baird became disenchanted with his options on which to use the #1 pick in the 2005 Rule 5 draft, he found an eager buyer for the pick in the Texas Rangers and extracted Esteban German from them. Joe Posnanski wrote a column the following day detailing his epic quest to figure out who the Royals were trading for – Baird had given him a few clues – and his disappointment when he finally solved the puzzle:

“You know,” I tell [Baird], “I spent an awful lot of time trying to figure out your mystery second baseman. I didn’t think I would end up with some guy I never heard of, Esteban German, who had four at-bats in the majors last year. I’m not sure that was worth it.”

It was worth it. A total of 89 players have batted 700 or more times in a Royals uniform, and German ranks 2nd with a .381 OBP, just ahead of Kevin Seitzer’s .380 mark. (I’ll let you guys use the comments to speculate over who ranks first, with a .385 OBP.)

My favorite Baird trade, though, was probably the time he suckered the Pirates – a few days after they had dumped Jason Kendall’s salary to Oakland – on the need for a veteran backup catcher. Benito Santiago played in six games for the Pirates before his career ended. In exchange the Pirates took on half his salary (a cool $1 million)…and Leo Nunez.

On the whole, Baird was a mediocre GM. He was absolutely hamstrung by ownership at times, but that can’t excuse the Damon trade, or picking up Matt Diaz but then designating him for assignment after he had hit .371 in Omaha, after hitting .332 and .354 in Tampa Bay’s farm system the two previous years. And it absolutely can’t excuse the 2001 draft, one of the most disastrous drafts executed by any team in history. Remember, David Glass opened up his pocketbook to sign both Colt Griffin and Roscoe Crosby. It wasn’t the owner who argued in favor of Bust One and Bust Two, it was his front office. (The sidenote to that draft was that the Royals’ third-rounder, Matt Ferrara, who played shortstop at Alex Rodriguez’s alma mater, wasn’t even listed in Baseball America’s draft preview as a potential Top-15 round pick. Ferrara hit .220/.301/.350 in his career, never escaped rookie ball, and was finished at age 21.)

Even some of Baird’s best moves, as they appeared at the time, lost their luster quickly. He traded Jason Grimsley for Denny Bautista, which at the time looked like the heist of the year. He traded Jose Bautista for Justin Huber. The Royals were supposed to get an above-average starter and a middle-of-the-lineup hitter out of those deals; instead they ended up with a lot of heartburn.

But it’s the team’s failures in drafting and player development that stung the most. There’s only so much talent you can acquire by swindling other GMs. When you’re a small-market team and you’re limited in how much talent you can buy, the only remaining option is to be an industry leader in the talent you develop. Under Baird, the Royals were always lagging behind others in that regard.

So in evaluating Moore, we have to keep in mind that it will take years before we can truly evaluate the most important part of his job, his ability to lead an organization that identifies, signs, and develops amateur players better than anyone else. Moore was hired a week before the 2006 draft, but Atlanta sensibly denied him the opportunity to assist the Royals in the war room, given that he had been preparing for that draft as a member of the Braves all spring. (Not surprisingly, that was a rather disjointed draft for the Royals. Hochevar emerged as a compromise pick at #1 overall, and second-round pick Jason Taylor was suspended for all of last season for off-field issues. Third-rounder Blake Wood looks awfully good, though.) It will be years before we can evaluate the 2007 draft and the players signed out of Latin America in the last two signing periods.

We can’t evaluate the results, but we can evaluate the process. The Royals added a third short-season minor league affiliate last season, and are one of only two franchises with that set-up. More teams means more playing time, more playing time means more players with an opportunity, and the more players with an opportunity to develop, the more likely you are to get lucky and find a diamond in the rough. Now that MLB has eliminated the draft-and-follow process, teams can no longer draft 50 guys, sign 20 of them, and then watch the other 30 play in junior college. If your 27th-round pick suddenly adds 5 mph to his fastball when he returns to campus, well, you’re out of luck. But if you signed that pick because you have a third affiliate to place him at, you’re prepared to reap those rewards.

The Twins, to pick an AL Central rival with a well-regarded player-development crew, signed only 22 of their draft picks from last season. The Indians signed 26, the White Sox 24, the Tigers 29.

The Royals? They signed 35.

Then there’s the fact that Moore has gotten Glass to open up the pursestrings for amateur talent in a way that Baird, for whatever reason, never could. The Royals signed five different players out of Latin America to six-figure signing bonuses, which is more Latin players signed to six-figure bonuses in the previous decade combined. (I’m almost certain on that, although the lack of data on bonuses to foreign players makes it impossible to check.) None of those players are likely to surface in the majors until 2011 at the earliest, but the focus on the long term is exactly the sort of thing the Royals have been lacking for the last 15-20 years, ever since Ewing Kauffman’s health started to fail and the Royals started making short-term moves to win him one more title.

The focus on player development ought to have a huge impact on the organization in a few years. In the meantime, Moore has done what many thought was near-impossible before he was hired: he has made the rest of baseball respect the Kansas City Royals again.

Moore was highly respected himself throughout baseball well before he became a GM. Baseball America named him the top GM candidate in baseball back in 2004, and the Red Sox had offered him their GM position when Theo Epstein briefly left the team the following year. But there was concern that the Royals would infect him with their stench of hopelessness. Instead, it’s been the other way around – Moore’s confidence, preparedness, and baseball intellect has rubbed off on the rest of the organization.

I knew things had changed in Kansas City when I was speaking to a scout right after the Royals signed Gil Meche. It wasn’t that the scout liked the Meche signing; like virtually everyone else in baseball, he thought the Royals overpaid. It was that the mere fact that Dayton Moore signed him made him reconsider. “He looks like a good #4 starter to me,” he said, “but if Dayton wanted him that badly…now I’m not so sure.”

That, my friends, is respect. And that’s respect that Moore had earned before he had done anything as a general manager. Eighteen months later, after the Meche signing – and many other moves – worked out better than almost anyone outside the organization had expected, that respect has only grown. Throughout baseball, throughout the Royals fan base, and certainly throughout this blog.

I’ll stop here, but hopefully I’ll be back later with an analysis of every significant move that Moore has made since the day he was hired. No doubt there have been some clunkers. It’s just that you have to sift through some real gems in order to find them.

Royals Today: 4/15/2008.

Updating y’all on our stat nugget from yesterday…the Royals have now allowed 33 runs in 13 games. Going back to 1982, here’s a list of every AL team which allowed 33 or fewer runs in its first 13 games:

26: 1988 Cleveland Indians, who finished 78-84, sixth in the AL East, and 8^th in the league in runs allowed.

28: 1982 California Angels, who led the league in runs allowed and went 93-69, losing to Milwaukee in the ALCS.

28: 2001 Boston Red Sox, who finished 82-79, the worst record of any Red Sox team in the last decade. They also finished just 5^th in the league in runs allowed.

33: Four teams: the 1985 Kansas City Royals (won a world championship, 2^nd in the AL in runs allowed), the 1991 Red Sox (finished 84-78, 7 games out, and 6^th in the league in runs allowed), the 2007 Red Sox (won a world championship, led the league in runs allowed), and the 2008 Royals.

So of the six other teams on the list, two won a championship, one lost in the playoffs, two finished a little over .500, and one lost 84 games. Half the teams finished 1st or 2nd in runs allowed, the other half finished around the league average. The Royals are following in the footsteps of some great teams...but also some mediocre ones.

Again, the mitigating factor for the Indians was that they played so many games against a hapless Baltimore Orioles team. The Royals have no such crutch; regardless what you think of the Tigers as a whole, you can’t deny that their lineup is formidable.

The Royals have had the weather in their favor; it’s hard to hit in cold weather, which is why offense is always down in April (and this has been a particularly cold April, which is why the American League as a whole has scored just 4.42 runs a game.) Back in the 1980s, the season started later and teams were not subject to early-April cold as much. (The 1985 Royals had only played 5 games through April 15^th.) On the other hand, offenses were much less productive in general in the 1980s; the league as a whole scored 4.56 runs a game in 1985.

Thirty-three runs in 13 games is impressive no matter how you slice it. If the worst-case scenario for the Royals is winning 78 games, we’ll take it. But we’ll also hold out for the best-case scenario.

- It’s not all pitching. The team’s defensive efficiency is .737, which sounds amazing – last year the team’s mark was .689. But there’s a lot of confounding factors there. The cold weather that is keeping offense down also artificially inflates defensive efficiency. The median defensive efficiency right now is .7065, a full 13 points higher than last year’s full-season mark. Even so, the Royals, who ranked 23^rd last season, currently rank 4^th in the majors. Do we give Brian Bannister credit for that? If it’s true that he can manipulate BABIP in his favor, that would mean that the team’s defensive efficiency (which is basically the inverse of BABIP in the first place) would have improved through no fault of the defense.

And comparing this year’s defense to last year’s…where would such an improvement come from? The only significant difference between 2007 and 2008 is that Jose Guillen is in right. Guillen has a gun, but no one has accused him of possessing tremendous range. Has the fact that Joey Gathright played most of the innings in center made a difference? Alex Gordon got off to a horrible defensive start last year, and has been much more steady this year. But I don’t see an obvious reason for the Royals to have made this kind of improvement, other than the fact that what looks like defense may in fact be pitching. This will be a development to keep an eye on as the season unfolds.

- I love the fact that Hillman has twice used Miguel Olivo as his DH against LHP. Love love love. Olivo crushes LHP – his career mark is .293/.322/.532 – and getting both Buck and Olivo in the lineup at the same time makes the most of a catching “platoon” that involves two remarkably similar players. Essentially Hillman is platooning Olivo with Gload, with Butler moving from DH to 1B. This gets Olivo more playing time than your typical backup, without taking PT away from Buck. It also eases Butler into playing first base, giving the Royals the opportunity to evaluate him for full-time play.

The downside – and the reason I’m so impressed Hillman has made this move – is that your backup catcher is DHing, which means if your starter gets hurt you have to lose the DH in order to get Olivo behind the plate. It’s a minimal risk – how often does a catcher have to leave a game because of injury? – but that minimal risk is the entire reason why most managers are terrified of DHing their catcher. Most managers will always take the risk-averse option. On this point, Hillman has not, and last night his gamble led to a key 2-run homer.

- Now that we’ve properly massaged Hillman’s ego, can I make a suggestion? Can we please go back to 11 pitchers?

Seriously, this is ridiculous. You have a starting rotation which has given you over 6.6 innings per start. Hillman has shown a willingness to push the envelope a little with pitch counts; Bannister went 111 pitches Sunday and Greinke’s gone 107 pitches in back-to-back starts, which is nothing unusual in the middle of summer but a little aggressive at the beginning of April, in cold weather. The Royals have back-to-back complete games which represent a full one-third of the AL’s total of CGs all year. More than that, the Royals starter has completed five innings every time out, and has gone at least 6 innings in ten of thirteen games.

On top of that, the top six men in your bullpen have allowed 4 runs in 29 innings 1 run in 26 innings. They’re lights out. Joakim Soria, Leo Nunez, and Ramon Ramirez – the Hispanic Panic (if you’re the other team) – have combined for 14.1 scoreless innings, with 8 hits, 2 walks, and 19 Ks. All six guys are fully capable of protecting a one-run lead in the ninth or keeping a game tied in extra innings if the need arises.

So why do we need Hideo Nomo, or any pitcher in that slot? Jimmy Gobble has thrown all of 2 innings this year – two devastating innings, I might add. He’s on pace for 25 innings all season. If we can’t find enough innings for Gobble, what do we need Nomo for?

Bring up another hitter. It could be a lefty hitter to pinch-hit when one of the catchers is stuck facing Pat Neshek or some other sidewinding righty in the late innings. It could a be righty slugger to pinch-hit for Gload or Gathright or DeJesus against a LOOGY. It could be a third catcher if Hillman really wants to be aggressive about playing Buck and Olivo at the same time. Whoever you bring up is going to have some value. Which is more than you can say about the Royals’ seventh reliever at this point.

(Having said that, I must concede that if you’re going to have a four-man bench, the Royals would be hard-pressed to come up with a better one than the one they have. Gathright plays everywhere, and can come in to bunt or pinch-run. Callaspo compensates for the lineup’s biggest weakness – Pena having to bat when the Royals are losing – and between him and German the Royals have two guys who can play everywhere but catcher. Olivo has already proven he can do more than just play when the starting catcher needs a break.)

- I’m supposed to be on with my friends at 810 WHB, Steven St. John and Nate Bukaty, tomorrow (Wednesday) morning around 8:30. If you’re interested.

- Dayton runs tonight or tomorrow morning. I promise.

Stat Nugget of the Day.

(Every once in a while I will come across a statistic regarding the Royals that I think is worth sharing with a larger audience. While I post it here on my blog, I also welcome all of my media friends to disseminate this in their respective mediums; I only ask for proper attribution. So Sam, Bob, Joe, Jeff, my friends at 610 and 810 and elsewhere: feel free to use the Stat Nugget of the Day as you see fit. This one’s a doozy.)

It’s the 1980s all over again. The Royals are wearing powder blues, they’ve got a winning record, and they’re winning with stifling pitching and just enough offense. The Royals are 7-5 despite the fact that they’ve scored just 38 runs in 12 games, just 3.17 per game. They’re 7-5 because their pitching staff has allowed just 32 runs.

In 12 games, the Royals and their opponents have combined for just 70 runs, or about what you used to see in a single series at Coors Field.

How unusual is this? According to my colleague at Baseball Prospectus, Jason Pare, no American League team has started its season with no more than 70 runs scored in its first 12 games in the last 17 years. Only three other teams have done so in the last 25 years.

Those teams?

The 1991 Cleveland Indians, with 65 runs (29 for Cleveland, 36 for their opponents.)

The 1988 Texas Rangers, with 68 runs (24 for Texas, 45 for their opponents – 15 in one game.)

We’ll get to the third team in a moment.

These teams rank where they do only because their offenses were so terrible – they both gave up more runs than the Royals have. The Royals are doing this with their pitching – they have a ridiculous team ERA of 2.58.

In fact, according to another Baseball Prospectus colleague, Bil Burke, in the last 25 years only three AL teams have allowed fewer runs in their first 12 games than the Royals. (The 2007 Red Sox also gave up exactly 32 runs in their first 12 games.)

Two of those teams are the 2001 Red Sox, who allowed 27 runs, and the 1988 Indians, who allowed just 25 runs, and just 26 runs in their first 13 games, on their way to starting 11-2.

(In retrospect, it’s obvious why the Indians pitched so well – seven of those games came against the Orioles, who you may recall started the season 0-21. Cleveland allowed just nine runs in those seven games. On the other hand, the Royals got to face the Tigers three times. Wow…did I just compare these Tigers to the 1988 Orioles? I guess I did.)

But just one American League team in the last 25 years has both allowed fewer runs than the 2008 Royals and seen fewer combined runs in its first dozen contests. That team allowed just 27 runs and scored 35, but courtesy of three extra-innings losses was just 6-6 in that span. That team would still be at .500 in mid-July before heating up as the season went on. That team had a mediocre offense but a pitching staff deep and talented enough to lead it to a world championship anyway.

That team was the 1985 Royals.

Missing!

Who: The Kansas City Royals' offense.
Last seen: April 10th, 2008, in the first inning. Twenty-six innings ago.
Prime Suspect: Jose Guillen, who after he drove in Mark Teahen with a double was seen walking away with the team's offense handcuffed to his bat.

Witnesses report seeing him holding the offense hostage on multiple occasions since: when he grounded into a double play in his following at-bat; when he struck out with two men on in the 8th; when he struck out with the bases loaded and one out in the fifth inning the following night; and most recently, leading off the 9th inning tonight with the Royals down by 2, after Joe Nathan fell behind 3-1, with thousands of fans on their feet hoping to get the tying run to the plate, Guillen swung at ball four - a pitch about an inch above his ankles - and grounded out.

If you come into contact with the suspect, please call the authorities immediately. Alternatively, feel free to arrest him yourself - he's considered armed, but definitely not dangerous.

- All my life, I've waited for a manager who thinks along with me. The wait may be over. I wrote a few days ago that Tony Pena should start with John Bale on the mound, but that Callaspo should start when Meche was on the hill on Friday. Hillman started Pena on Thursday, and Callaspo on Friday. I hadn't even gotten around to arguing that Jose Guillen needs to be dropped in the lineup posthaste - tonight Guillen was batting 5th, swapping with Butler. (If he doesn't get his act in gear by the next time the Royals face a RHP, I expect/predict he'll drop to 6th and Gordon will bat 5th.)

I also had not had time to argue that Joey Gathright, for all his speed, simply wasn't hitting worth a damn, and was a much better fit in the 9 hole (the classic AL strategy of the "second leadoff hitter", a strategy which has come to the National League in the form of the "pitcher bats 8th" gambit.) Tonight, Gathright batted ninth, with the suddenly ubiquitous Callaspo in the leadoff spot. It didn't work, at least if you count success as "scoring a run." But it was the right move to make. If you're not a Royals fan you might be wondering what the big deal is here. But if you are a Royals fan, you know how amazing it is to have a manager who makes rational and predictable decisions. Never underestimate the power of common sense. And never underestimate its rarity.

- The Royals have scored 33 runs in 11 games, and here are the seasonal batting averages of the nine guys in tonight's lineup: .333, .343, .316, .372, .133, .311, .111, .333, .214. Two-thirds of the starting lineup is hitting .311 or better. That the Royals have only scored 3 runs a game is testament to just how bad Tony Pena has been, and how much Guillen's struggles have killed the Royals in the middle of the lineup. But it's also testament to just how useless batting average is.

The Royals came into tonight's game batting .266, which is actually 2nd in the AL. But they had hit just 4 homers in 10 games, and walked just 22 times. Not only were they last in the league in both homers and walks, but their lack of secondary skills has been so bad that despite their lofty position in batting average, they were dead last in the league in both OBP and slugging average. Tonight they walked twice and did not manage an extra-base hit.

One of these years the Royals will learn that there's more to an offense than singles and stolen bases. One of these years.

- The day will soon come when we'll need to talk about long-term contracts for the likes of Gordon, Butler, and Greinke. But can we go ahead and get the team's MVP signed to a lifetime contract right now? You can have your Dave Duncan, your Leo Mazzone, your Bud Black. I'll take Bob McClure, thanks. The team's ERA is 2.82. (The defense has chipped in a .995 fielding average and no unearned runs.) The bullpen has allowed 4 runs - half of them charity offerings by Hideo Nomo - in 31 innings. (Weirdly, all four runs came on solo homers.) Come on, Mr. Glass - lock him up now. We'll even throw in some of Avron Fogelman's real estate holdings if it will seal the deal.

Royals Today: 4/10/2008.

A quickie today:

- The Royals were due for a game like this, when the bats went silent and no amount of speed or manufacturing was going to change that. This ends a streak in which the Royals scored between 3 and 5 runs for eight straight games. According to my colleague Jason Pare at Baseball Prospectus, the Royals tied the longest such streak in their history: from April 14th to April 22nd, 2001, they also scored between 3 and 5 runs in eight straight games. (In 2001, they went 4-4. In 2001, they didn't have their 2008 pitching staff.)

The all-time record, in case you're interested - going back to 1957, when the Retrosheet database starts - is a remarkable 13-game stretch by the Expos from April 10th to 22nd. There's something about April. My guess is the cooler weather makes it less likely for teams to have a big offensive day.

- Tony Pena may be 1-for-27, but Hillman still hasn't allowed him to bat in a game the Royals were losing after the fifth inning. Callaspo hit a sharp liner that bounced in front of Robinson Cano and nearly castrated him; he's now 4-for-10 on the season, and you have to figure that if Hillman is smart enough to pull Pena from the game when the situation emphasizes offense over defense, he's smart enough to start Callaspo more and more at shortstop. Like, say, tomorrow.

- I thought signing Hideo Nomo was a publicity stunt more than anything, and I guess he proved me wrong. But having seen him pitch, I can't say I'm all that impressed. I don't think he broke 86 (and that's on the Fox gun, which means he probably was topping out around 65.) He's trashed the Tornado windup, but something about his delivery - he still has that herky-jerky stutter - must be deceiving the hitters, because he was still fooling hitters with a 74 mph splitter when he located properly.

Hillman's decision to send him out there for a third inning was quite stunning, and that's not hindsight - I was questioning the decision in real time. Nomo was trying to compensate for his lack of stuff by nibbling all night, and had thrown 41 pitches in his first two innings. I know he's a converted starter, but he's been working in relief for weeks, he's already thrown 41 pitches, and he wasn't exactly dominating out there in the first place - he had allowed two hits and two walks, without any strikeouts.

It's still a 3-run game in the ninth inning, and Mariano Rivera is 38 years old, so you've got a shot if you keep this game close. Ramon Ramirez has thrown a total of 11 pitches in the last five days. Why are you sending Hideo Nomo out to pitch another inning when he's probably gassed, and wasn't throwing all that well when he was fresh? Nomo almost got out of the inning - Damon had a homer that twisted just foul - but with two outs, he hung splitters to A-Rod and Posada, and it was like watching them hit off a pitching machine. I know it didn't impact the game, but come on, Trey - don't you want to see if you can break the all-time record for lowest bullpen ERA?

- If I were starting the Top 23 reasons over again today, I might have to make a place for The Comedian. In addition to being the funniest quote on the team, Mark Teahen is looking more and more like the player he was in 2006, when he was the best player on the team. He had three hits today, including a sharp single off a Joba Chamberlain slider. You have to tip your cap to anyone who can win a battle against Joba, who made Jose Guillen look like an amateur at the plate. (If I were starting the Top 23 reasons over again today, The Hothead would not be under consideration. Maybe not even the Top 123.)

- Speaking of Top 23...I hope to have #1 posted sometime this weekend. See, all that time I had to write about baseball before the season began now goes to actually watching baseball. Funny how that works out.

Royals Today: 4/9/2008.

Look, any team can start 3-0. And any team can start 6-2; the odds are about the same. (Using simple binomial theory, the odds that a .500 team will win its first three games is 1 in 8, or 12.5%. The odds that a .500 team will win at least six of its first eight games is 37 in 256, or 14.4%.)

But in eight games, the Royals have surrendered 18 runs. They have surrendered more than four runs in a game once. They have allowed one run or fewer in four of their eight games. The starting pitchers have a 2.88 ERA, and they’re being pwned by the bullpen with their 0.82 ERA. Almost as impressively, the defense has committed just one error in eight games, and that was simply an errant pickoff throw by Ron Mahay.

Five years ago, the Royals started 9-0, but four of those victories came against the Indians – who lost 94 games that year – and two more came against the Tigers, who went on to lose the most games in American League history. This year, the Royals have started 6-2 while playing Detroit – and their 1-8 record notwithstanding, that’s still a damn good team – and the Yankees a total of five times, winning all five. Both Detroit and New York are supposed to rank among the five best offenses in baseball this year; the Royals have held them to seven runs in five games.

So I ask again: are you excited yet? When I asked this a week ago, it was somewhat tongue-in-cheek. Now? If you’re not excited, you’re not paying attention. If you don’t harbor at least a smidgeon of hope that the Royals could actually win the division this year, you’re a heartless cynic, a grinch, a doddering old curmudgeon who’s letting the eyesore of the last 13 seasons block the reality of the 2008 Royals that’s staring us all right in the face. This team can win. I don’t think it can win 95 games and run away with the division, but it can win 85 games and make things very, very interesting. Catch a few breaks here and there, and who knows?

The Tigers, the trendy pick to win the division, are already five games out. More importantly, the fact that they’ve started 1-7 is a strong (but not overwhelming) indication that they’re not going to be the juggernaut that many people thought they were. On paper, neither the White Sox nor the Twins looked significantly better than the Royals before the season began – and before the pitching staff turned back the clock 23 years.

That leaves the Indians, who were my pick to win the division before the season began, and who are 2.5 games out at the moment. In the Royals’ favor is the fact that the Tribe’s bullpen has looked very vulnerable so far and C.C. Sabathia has carried his postseason struggles from last October into 2008. In the Indians’ favor is that, you know, we’ve played exactly eight games. I’m not advocating that anyone kidnap Grady Sizemore, stuff him in a box and ship him to Azerbaijan by UPS ground. I’m merely stating that the Royals’ playoff chances may hinge on whether Sizemore spends the summer enjoying the beautiful vistas of the Caucasus mountains.

On to the notes:

- I needed to come up with a name for these random postings and stick with it. I thought about “The Daily Royal”, except that would imply I was writing, you know, daily. So I’ll steal a column name from my friend Joe Sheehan and go with “Royals Today.” I’m always open to suggestions.

- Trey Hillman is living a charmed life. He sends Zack Greinke out there on a cold, miserable, wet day in April, with weather reports so bad that the Yankees didn’t even bother to go with scheduled starter Ian Kennedy to start the game, preferring instead to go with a reliever (Brian Bruney) and mix-and-match the rest of the game. The game not only doesn't get rained out, it goes a regulation nine. Despite battling both the Yankees and the elements, Greinke goes eight shutout innings. Remember when people said Greinke’s issues with depression meant that he didn’t have the mental toughness to succeed in the majors? Be happy Allard Baird and Buddy Bell didn’t listen to that claptrap. Greinke’s next two starts come against Seattle and Oakland – I see a big strikeout game in his future.

- For the second straight start, Hillman left Greinke in one inning too long. Greinke gave up a single and a double in the eighth, but a well-timed DP saved some runs – and just as importantly, some pitches on his arm. I’m glad the game has evolved to the point where forcing his starter to throw 107 pitches on a cold, rainy day is about the worst a manager is allowed to do anymore.

- Someone please inform Hillman that Jorge Posada was removed from Tuesday’s game after six innings because of a dead arm. Be sure to let him know that Jose Molina, his replacement, has thrown out 41% of attempted basestealers in his career, and 43% (79 of 185) of aspiring thieves over the past five years.

Apparently, Hillman did not notice, because after running crazy on Posada (four steals in six innings, three by Gathright, two on pitchouts), Hillman gave Ross Gload – Ross Gload! – the perpetual green light. With one out in the seventh, Gload took off for second before Ross Ohlendorf committed to the plate, and was somehow safe at second when Jason Giambi had trouble handling the pickoff throw. On the very next pitch, Gload lights out for third base – Molina had him dead to rights. Gload came into the game with eight steals – in his career. He’s a first baseman. Suddenly he thinks he’s Rod Carew?

Today, Alex Gordon (who at least has shown the ability to steal effectively in the past) was thrown out trying to steal second, and an inning later, Gathright (after stealing second) was thrown out trying to steal third even as Grudzielanek worked a walk. That cost the Royals at least a run. Eventually this kamikaze basepath commando approach is going to cost the Royals a game.

The Royals are now 10-for-15 in stolen bases, which is below the break-even point, and this doesn’t count the many, many baserunners eliminated because of overaggressiveness once the ball was put in play. The stolen base has a place: it’s a great tactic when limited to your best baserunners, and when utilized against weak-armed catchers or pitchers who are slow to the plate. Gathright vs. Posada? Good. Gload vs. Molina? Bad. Very, very bad. Come on, Trey. You’re smarter than this.

- John Buck, meet fountain. Fountain, meet John Buck. From 439 feet away. Through the rain. It’s just one swing, but it’s been a long time since any of Buck’s swings showed off the light-tower power he’s capable of.

- Can we all agree that Jose Guillen should bat no higher than 6^th until he gets his average over .200? A 3-4-5-6 of Teahen, Butler, Gordon, and Guillen breaks up the lefties and righties nicely, and gets Butler’s insanely hot bat directly behind Teahen’s new-found patience.

- Speaking of Teahen…he walked three times tonight, and the Royals as a whole drew six, after five yesterday. Maybe it was the Twins’ pitching all along. But Teahen now has more walks than any two teammates combined, and more than that, it looks like it’s deliberate. He simply isn’t swinging at pitches that aren’t strikes, and seems to understand how important it is for him to get on base batting ahead of Guillen/Butler/Gordon. Teahen may very well be the fulcrum around which this lineup sinks or swims, and so far he looks a lot closer to his 2006 form than 2007.

- Tony Pena’s ugly blooper that won the game on Opening Day is still his only hit of the season. Bale goes tomorrow, and Pena should be out there for his defense. Come Friday, it’s time to give Alberto Callaspo another shot.

- Okay, now this is getting weird. The Royals’ run totals this year: 5, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 5, 4. I’m trying to find out if the Royals have ever had a stretch like that; I’ll let you know if I do.

- Allowing just 18 runs in an eight-game stretch seems almost historic, and it might be. But last year, over an eight-game stretch from June 24^th to July 2^nd, the Royals allowed just 19 runs. (And three of those games went extra innings.)

Which is to say: eight games means something, but not everything. Any team can start 6-2. Let’s get excited, people. But not too excited. (Yet.)

Random Post: April 8th, 2008.

Sorry for turning the lights out over here at RotR the last few days. That's going to happen every now and then in my line of work. Anyway, my friends over at Royals Review and Royals Authority have been busy keeping up with the plot lines over the past few days. To wit:

- The bullpen is ridiculous.
- The edict to take more walks has, um, been slow to sink in. The team went an entire series in Minnesota without drawing a walk, and while the Twins emphasize control with their pitchers more than any other team in baseball, that's still sort of sad.

Other thoughts:

- Six games in, and Gil Meche has been the worst pitcher so far, which is less a reflection of him than the rest of the staff. Meche and John Bale are the only two pitchers (out of 11) with an ERA above 2.70. I am impressed.

- The offense has somehow made up for a lack of punch with incredible consistency. Runs scored in the first six games: 5, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3. Three to five runs is a team's sweet spot for offense, but that's a little ridiculous. Amazingly enough, the Royals also had a stretch last season (May 1st to 6th) where they scored between 3 and 5 runs in six straight games, but nonetheless that's a pretty rare feat. More to the point, if they continue to score 3.83 runs per game, they're eventually going to score so few runs that not even their pitching staff can bail them out.

- Joakim Soria is filthier than Jake Peavy's pitching hand. He closed the game out on Sunday by striking out the side on 12 pitches. It's probably not the most dominant inning in Royals history (Jeff Montgomery once struck the side out on 9 pitches, an event that is literally rarer than a no-hitter) - but it's close. He struck out Justin Morneau, who I'm told is a well-respected hitter, on three pitches: a fastball on the corner low and outside, 91 mph; a changeup to the exact same spot that dropped six inches at the last moment as Morneau swung over it, 84 mph; a slow, looping curveball to the exact same spot that Morneau was about 3 feet in front of, 68 mph. That's three pitches, thrown to the perfect spot on the outside edge at the knees, at three different speeds and with three different trajectories.

It's strange to say this, but Soria resembles the rookie Zack Grienke more than Greinke himself does. The Mariano Rivera comparisons are suddenly sprouting everywhere - Buster Olney had a good article on this at ESPN.com - but while Soria throws a great cutter, he's the exact opposite of a one-pitch pitcher. And the more I see his repertoire, the more I think he could be equally successful in the rotation. It will take some cojones for the Royals to mess with success. Especially this much success.

- After raving about Hillman's use of Callaspo as a late-inning pinch-hitter for Tony Pena on Friday, Hillman went one better the next day and started Callaspo at shortstop against Livan Hernandez. The results were mixed; Callaspo tripled, scored and drove in a run, but also was unable to snare a line-drive off the bat of Matt Tolbert cleanly leading off the sixth, which keyed a 3-run Twins rally. Pena's advantage with the glove almost exactly balances Callaspo's advantage with the stick, which means the Royals will get the most out of the position by mixing and matching their talents. Using Callaspo to pinch-hit when the Royals are losing late (or using Pena as a d-rep when they're holding a lead) is obvious. Beyond that, Callaspo is a switch-hitter, and so should start against "hard" right-handed pitchers - RHP who have bigger than normal platoon splits.

But more than just platooning based on the opposing starter, Hillman should strongly consider "platooning" Pena and Callaspo depending on his own starting pitcher. When Bale starts, Pena should always be out there - Bale is the sole left-hander in the rotation, and a groundball pitcher to boot, which means a ton of balls to the left side. But the other four starters are all right-handers, and three of them (Greinke, Bannister, and Tomko) are flyball pitchers, meaning the Royals could start Callaspo and not suffer all that much defensively.

As I write this, the Royals have secretly replaced Brian Bannister with Daniel Cabrera. Through four innings, The Professor has walked four and struck out five, and he's already thrown 84 pitches. He seems to be fighting the cold, the Yankees hitters, and the umpire all at once - and he's battling them to a draw so far.

The Royals have returned the favor, with four walks of their own. You know it's a weird day when the Royals end a streak of 125 consecutive plate appearances without a walk - and the streak is broken by Pena.

- Finally: Rock chalk, Jayhawk. I believe this is the first championship of any significance for the locals since Wichita State won the College World Series in 1989. That was so long ago that the starting catcher for the Shockers was Eric Wedge. Yeah, that Eric Wedge.