Saturday, February 22, 2014

2014 Royals Top Prospects, Part 4.


#4: Sean Manaea

Pos-T: SP-L
H-W: 6’5”, 235 lbs
DOB: 2/1/1992 (22 years old)
Signed: Supplemental 1st Round (#34), $3.55 million bonus, 2013, Indiana State U.
Stats: None

This is the first spot on the list where I differ from the consensus opinion – every other Top 10 list I’ve seen has placed Manaea behind either Bonifacio, Almonte, or both. And I certainly understand the concern – Manaea had surgery essentially immediately after he was drafted, and while it was both expected and routine, he has yet to throw a professional pitch.

But I’d still rather have him than either Bonifacio or Almonte, for this simple reason: one year ago today, before Manaea’s hip issues surfaced, he was probably the favorite to be selected with the #1 overall pick in the draft. He was the talk of the Cape Cod League in the summer of 2012; left-handed pitchers who throw 98 with an above-average slider tend to get the scouts abuzzing. (He struck out 85 batters in 52 innings on the Cape, the most strikeouts by any pitcher in that league since at least 2000.)

The Royals only had a shot at Manaea because he had a torn labrum in his left…hip, possibly the result of pitching through an injured right ankle. His velocity was down for most of the season, generally pitching in the low 90s – and yet, in a credit to his talents as a pitcher, he still had a 1.47 ERA and was third in the NCAA in strikeouts per nine innings (11.4).

You’ll recall that for about two hours last June, we thought the Royals had lost their minds, selecting Hunter Dozier – who no one saw as better than about the 15th-best player in the draft – with the #8 overall pick. But the Royals had a plan, and when Manaea was still there at #34 – by luck or by shrewd planning, and I’m betting the latter – it fell into place perfectly. Manaea got the bonus money that was awarded for Dozier’s slot and a little more; his bonus is the second-highest in history for a draft pick after the first round.

It’s possible that his velocity won’t pick up even now that he’s had surgery and fully recovered. If that’s the case, his prospect status takes a hit, although being left-handed I’d still imagine he’d project as a major league starter. But if his velocity is back…you’re looking at a pitcher with quite possibly the best stuff of any left-hander in the minor leagues. (Well, until Carlos Rodon signs.) It was a very shrewd gamble by the Royals, and frankly I don’t know why so many other teams elected not to take the gamble.

Remember, this was the second straight year that a pitcher who had the potential to be a #1 overall pick showed injury concerns before the draft. In 2012, it was Lucas Giolito who fell to the #16 overall pick because he sprained his ulnar collateral ligament three months before the draft. He had a real shot at being the first right-handed high school pitcher ever to go #1; instead the Nationals signed him for $2.925 million, and a few months later he underwent Tommy John surgery. He returned last July and made 11 starts in rookie ball, and showed such devastating stuff that he ranked #21 on Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospect list. (Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus was even more effusive; his scouting report on Giolito is borderline pornographic. If Giolito reaches the upside Parks projects for him, he might be the best pitcher in baseball.)

Manaea’s recovery might not go as perfectly as Giolito’s has, but if it does, he’s a Top 25 Prospect in the game by mid-summer. I could see him starting in Wilmington, and moving to Northwest Arkansas by June or July – and if everything goes right, he could be ready for a major league audition by September. If the Royals are in a playoff race, adding Manaea’s arm – even out of the bullpen – would be a huge boost to the team when it needs it.

If he’s fully recovered. Which we don’t know yet. But we ought to know soon – spring training is in session and the minor leaguers arrive shortly. I know this much – when they do report, how Manaea looks, and what the radar gun says, is the one piece of information I’m looking forward to getting the most.


#3: Kyle Zimmer

Pos-T: SP-R
H-W: 6’3”, 215 lbs
DOB: 9/13/1991 (22 years old)
Signed: 1st Round (#5), $3 million bonus, 2012, U. of San Francisco
Stats:

2013: 108 IP, 91 H, 36 BB, 140 K, 11 HR, 4.32 ERA in High-A (90 IP) and Double-A (19 IP)
2012: 40 IP, 39 H, 8 BB, 42 K, 1 HR, 2.04 ERA in Complex (10 IP) and Low-A (30 IP)

The decision on whether to place Kyle Zimmer or Yordano Ventura higher was probably the most difficult ranking decision on this list for me. When I started this list, I actually had Zimmer ahead of Ventura. The Top Prospect lists are mixed; some (Baseball Prospectus) have Ventura higher, some (Keith Law at ESPN) have Zimmer higher, some have them almost equal (Baseball America has Zimmer #23, Ventura #26.)

But I’ve decided that Ventura should rank higher, for a pretty simple reason. The #1 concern we have with any young pitcher, no matter how good the stuff, is whether he will stay healthy or not. These concerns are a little more acute for both Ventura and Zimmer, but for different reasons.

In Ventura’s case, the reason is simple: he’s 5’11”. Short pitchers are not expected to be as durable as tall pitchers, and short pitchers who somehow break triple digits are expected to break down more often than pitchers whose long levers present a simpler biomechanical explanation for their velocity.

In Zimmer’s case, the reason is also simple: we’re concerned about whether he will stay healthy because he hasn’t stayed healthy in the past. A minor procedure to remove bone chips in his elbow ended his first pro season prematurely; some mild tightness in his throwing shoulder ended his second pro season prematurely. And now, some mild tendinitis in his biceps will delay his third pro season temporarily.

On their own, none of these injuries are too worrisome. Bone chips happen all the time; pitchers have come back from surgery within six weeks to pitch good as new. The Royals insist that Zimmer was shut down last year out of an abundance of caution, and they insist that they’re taking it slow with him this year because they want him to be able to pitch into September – and if need be, October. That’s a new priority for the Royals, and it’s hard to criticize them for thinking optimistically.

We still know a lot less about how to prevent injuries than we’d like to, and we’re still less able to predict injuries than we’d like to. But the variable that predicts future injury risk the most – by far – is simple: a previous injury history. The concerns about Ventura are purely theoretical; with Zimmer, they’re practical.

And beyond that, I hate to say this, but when it comes to pitchers coming back from arm problems, no matter how mild, the Royals have cost themselves some credibility in my eyes by the way they handled John Lamb.

I’m not blaming the Royals for the fact that Lamb’s career has been all but ruined by Tommy John surgery, a surgery that pitchers return to full health from 90% of the time. I’m not saying it’s not their fault – certainly there ought to be some soul-searching going on in the organization over that – but it’s quite possible that Lamb didn’t take his rehab nearly as seriously as he should have. I don’t know who to blame, or even if there’s any blame to place at all.

But I am blaming the Royals for consistently downplaying concerns about Lamb’s rehab – the decline in velocity when he first returned, the longer-than-usual time it took until he returned in the first place – when it was obvious to anyone that Lamb’s recovery from Tommy John surgery was not proceeding normally. We were told that everything was fine right up until he took the mound last April – 22 months after surgery – and put up a 5.63 ERA in Wilmington, with a fastball that wouldn’t get out of the mid-80s. Maybe it's not fair to blame the Royals for not coming out publicly and saying, "yeah, we're really worried about him", but if that's the case, it doesn't make sense to take anything the Royals say about Zimmer - or any other pitcher with injury concerns - at face value.

So I think it’s reasonable to be concerned about Zimmer until he proves that he’s healthy and proves that the adjustments he made in the middle of last season – from June 29th on, Zimmer threw 44 innings, allowed 25 hits and eight walks, and struck out 63 – were for real. If he does and he does, he could be the ace of the staff when James Shields departs at the end of the year. But at this point I’m a little more convinced that Ventura will fill that role than Zimmer.


15 comments:

GeorgeM said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
GeorgeM said...

I guess this answers the "Is there any good news on the John Lamb front?". Ouch.

BobDD said...

(Rant Timeout)

I've complained about GMDM's neanderthal approach to evaluation and development, and his disdain for such things as OnBasePercentage that other organizations recognize the value of. Now I think it is time to just tell myself that my Royals have a below average organization because of backward thinking management. You can believe that the injury gods just happen to treat us worse, or our pitchers are just smitten with bad luck, but the truth is that this is how bad organizations maintain their place in the second division. First step: admit the problem.

We might well match or exceed last year's effort, but only if (1) there is an as yet unexpected pitching breakout(s) from somewhere that makes up for the pitching we've lost and (2) if we match the very rare lack of downtime from the starting lineup, or get an unexpected breakout there too. Doable, but against the odds.

Our GM and manager's inability to recognize and properly prioritize value are large handicaps.

Yeah, I know they are nice guys; I get that. But not even understanding the value of OB%? Not understanding the value of controlled pay for 6-7 years of minor league player of the year vs. two years of a very good pitcher at fair value? GMDM reminds me of my little brother who used to trade me anything I wanted in Monopoly as long as I told him that he would win the deal. But he was six - what's GMDM's excuse?

Michael S. said...

I just don't get why some people are so overly negative. We just came off our best season in 25+ years, many people are projecting us to make the playoffs for the first time in 30 years. Just enjoy it while we can people.

MaddenProPlr said...

Overly negative? Not really. Everything in recent history shows that this is how the Royals have managed their players, and has cost the careers of several prospects, almost all pitchers.

Until GMDM proves he can draft and develop PITCHING without them getting injured, people will continue to be "negative".

Michael S. said...

Every organization has weaknesses. But some people continually harp on those without recognizing the successes. Dayton Moore does not have a spotless record, but considering where this organization was when he took over to where it is now, he's definitely done a lot more right than he has done wrong.

Logan said...

Lamb fell to the 5th round out of high school because he missed his senior year due to a broken elbow suffered in a car accident. The fact that he recovered from that injury to be a top prospect would make me think he has the work ethic to rehab properly. But I wonder if there was some lingering problem from that injury that impacted his TJ recovery.

Kansas City said...

Dayton Moore recently revealed the flaw in his thinking that led to the Myers trade. He said he has to make Myers type trades because the only way for Royals to secure highly valuable veterans is to trade prospects for them, i.e., the Royals could not afford to sign star free agents. Moore may be correct about the inability to sign high value fee agents, but that factor should have ZERO impact on the assessment of a trade. A team needs to focus on the value of what they are giving up (six pus years of the top prospect in baseball) versus two years of a highly paid very good pitcher. Moore apparently fails to understnd that.

Kansas City said...

Modesi/Ventura 1/2? Mondesi seesm so far away.

Jayboid said...

Close to 6 decades old, and 50 watching baseball Rany's article struck (pardon the pun) a nerve. No, I'm not the type of old guy who attacks newness, love 2014 baseball. Heck, just Spring Training is a hoot now.

But.....

Great deal of words about hurt pitchers.

The part about Lamb really set me to thinking.

Somebody explain Warren Spahn 5000 + innings Nolan Ryan fireballing late in career, or any pitcher up to say 25 years ago who tossed massive innings.

For younguns, MLB relief pitchers were generally sore armed former starters. These ole warhorses limped to the mound and well, often were successful. *They hit too.

Without a doubt, they threw in pain. Len Dawson HOF QB Chiefs makes no bones about his later playing time and how he readied himself on game day. Hint.....is there an MD in the house??

Another first hand example, My H.O.F. high school football coach (former QB) pitched for an NBC level team. Early 30s in age. He often coached with a bag of ice on his shoulder, could hardly toss a football, then he'd go out a pitch a 7-8 inning gem on Sunday.

Old time pitchers competitive, yeah, need to earn a living is my guess on why they tossed knowing something wasn't right.

Just wondering, are modern players being taught throwing should be done without pain?

In all the sore arm pitcher chat, the last Royal I can remember who actually destroyed his arm was Roselo. Gil Meche if memory serves did not want to continue, but could have.

I know this will not happen, but wonder what the results would be if somebody just told Lamb (insert any sore armer name), your arm is going to hurt, gut it up.

Jayboid said...

Oh, should have mentioned these guys should not pitch when having actual damage like a rotator cuff, or bone chips.

Michael S. said...

The biggest difference between guys today and in Spahn's day is simple: Money. If Spahn blew out his arm and couldn't pitch it wasn't that big of a deal. His salary wasn't guaranteed so they wouldn't have to pay him one red cent anymore. Spahn was more likely to pitch with pain because that meant a paycheck. These kids today get paid regardless. If Clayton Kershaw blew out his arm in Spring Training and never pitched again he would still get all $215 million the Dodgers signed him for. So if his arm is sore the Dodgers are going to rest it to protect their investment.

EdsterB said...

I'm not all that concerned about Manaea's hip surgery. My son, a high school junior at the time, had the same hip labrum repair surgery in November of 2012. In February 2013, less than 3 months later, he high jumped 6'6", and in May he won a high jump state championship. By November, he was a first-team all-state soccer player, and last weekend he high jumped 6'11". So hip labrum surgery obviously doesn't have any long term repercussions.

But the loss of velocity ... now, that worries me.

EdsterB said...

I'm not all that concerned about Manaea's hip surgery. My son, a high school junior at the time, had the same hip labrum repair surgery in November of 2012. In February 2013, less than 3 months later, he high jumped 6'6", and in May he won a high jump state championship. By November, he was a first-team all-state soccer player, and last weekend he high jumped 6'11". So hip labrum surgery obviously doesn't have any long term repercussions.

But the loss of velocity ... now, that worries me.

BobDD said...

Ed, Was it his jumping leg? If so, that's pretty amazing.