Playoff Odds (ESPN/Fangraphs): 82.3% (30.2% Division, 52.1% Wild
Card)
Playoff Odds (Baseball
Prospectus): 78.9% (15.2%
Division, 63.7% Wild Card)
“Once Roberts got to
Boston, he mostly sat. And sat. The manager kept an eye on him but didn’t call
his name very often. It was as if Roberts had changed from a ballplayer into
some kind of glass-front box with the words break in case of need for stolen base stenciled on the front. But
Epstein’s orthodoxy, reinforced by special adviser, Bill James, the creator of
the whole analytical business that had debunked stolen bases in the first
place, held that if you built the right kind of team, Roberts’s skill set would
be largely extraneous. Except – and this was the key part of it, the flexible
part of it that most people didn’t get – except when it was necessary.
And so here Roberts was,
glass broken, standing on first base with Bill Mueller at the plate, the only
potential run of the year that mattered anymore. It was a desperate moment, but
nonetheless a moment that had been
planned for. That was the difference between this time around and 1949,
1978, 2003, and all the other disappointments of the last century. God was in
the details, and so were playoff victories. And the Red Sox were finally
looking after the details.
Rivera threw over to
first. Once. Twice. Roberts got back to the bag. Every problem is a lock
looking for a key. The Red Sox had spent decades half-asleep, oblivious to the
locks, never mind looking for the keys.
Rivera returned his
focus to the man at the plate. Roberts took his lead – not an inch shorter than
before, maybe half an inch longer now. Rivera got set in the stretch, looked
once more at Roberts, then committed to home plate with a barely perceptible
transfer of weight to his right foot, his left foot now rising off the mound.
But Roberts was already
gone, digging toward second, erasing the past with every step.”
That excerpt, written by Steven Goldman from the Prologue
to Mind Game: How the Boston Red Sox Got
Smart, Won a World Series, and Created a New Blueprint for Winning, is
still one of my favorite short analytical pieces ever. It once again seemed
relevant last night.
Man, did the Royals need a win like that. A day after we
saw Ned Yost at his worst, we saw him at his best.
Maybe one day over the winter, long after the season’s
been put to bed and Yost can reflect upon the world championship that he just
won, he’ll answer the question of why he is so aggressive to use pinch-runners
yet so reluctant to use pinch-hitters. That mystery will not be revealed in the
moment. Whatever the reason, we saw the positive impact that a pinch-runner can
make a week after we saw the downside in Detroit.
Even if the season ends without a playoff spot, the That’s
What Speed Deux game will be remembered fondly for a long time. If the Royals
do go to the playoffs, it may become legendary. Not up there with the Dave
Roberts Game, easily the most important steal in baseball history, but certainly
a part of permanent Royals lore.
It’s not just that we’re at a point in the season, and so
many teams are jumbled up in the zone that separates playoff for non-playoff
teams, that a single loss turned into a win has, I dunno, at least a 10% chance
of being the difference between making the postseason and sitting it out. It’s
that another loss last night, with James Shields going up against a pitcher
with a 5.05 ERA, a day after the Royals finished a losing home series against
the Red Sox on the most second-guessed managerial decision of the year, would
have been psychologically devastating. Maybe for the players; certainly for
the fans.
And the Royals were two outs away from exactly that. They
couldn’t do anything with John Danks, who allowed two hits to Nori Aoki – one an
infield single – in six innings. Shields had a quintessential Shields start,
not walking anyone and getting his share of K’s, but getting dinged by enough
singles to surrender three runs early in the game. In quintessential Shields
fashion, he powered through seven innings anyway, giving up back-to-back
singles in the sixth and seventh but getting through them unscathed.
And then Kelvin Herrera, who we were told the day before
owned the seventh inning, pitched a scoreless eighth, and Wade Davis pitched a
scoreless ninth. The Royals threatened in the sixth but were turned away when
Alex Gordon hit into a double play with two men aboard; they scored a run on an
Omar Infante single in the seventh but were turned away when Alcides Escobar
hit into a double play with two men aboard. They scored another run in the
eighth when Gordon hit an RBI single, but the inning ended when Billy Butler
hit into a double play with two men aboard.
Okay, there were two out when Butler batted, but it was
such a perfect double play ball that we’ll count it anyway.
Anyway, the Royals batted in the ninth down a run,
against Jake Petricka, a rookie the White Sox had installed as their closer,
who was outpitching the closer they had traded away last season, Addison Reed.
Infante started the inning by grounding out. The Royals’ odds of winning at
that point were 11%.
And then Mike Moustakas batted and laced a ball down the
left field line. After trying to hit into the shift all season long with predictable
results, Moustakas finally seems to have made an adjustment. I believe the stat
I saw was that in his first 350 at-bats of the year, Moustakas had just nine
hits to the opposite field. In his last 69 at-bats, counting this one,
Moustakas has eight.
Ned Yost cracked open the glass. Jarrod Dyson came out to
run for Moustakas. But then Escobar grounded out to short while Dyson held. The
Royals’ odds of winning were 14%.
And you know the rest. Dyson took off for third base with
two outs, a decision which is usually ridiculous, but in this case made sense,
because the batter was Nori Aoki. Aoki is the master of the infield single – he
already had two in this game – making him one of the few batters where being on
third base with two outs makes you much more likely to score than being on
second base with two outs.
The only problem was that Petricka has sort of been the
anti-Joe Nathan. Remember how Nathan had allowed 44 steals in 46 attempts over
the last nine years before he picked off Dyson? Prior to Dyson’s steal attempt,
four batters had attempted to steal off Petricka this year. All four were
thrown out stealing. He had also picked off a batter. I’m glad I didn’t know
this at the time.
But Petricka’s pitch bounced in front of the plate and
tipped off Tyler Flowers’ glove, and Dyson never hesitated, stealing third and
scoring the tying run in one fell swoop. The wild pitch was fortuitous for the
Royals in more ways than one: while Aoki then followed with a groundball inside
the third base bag for a double, had Dyson simply stolen third base, the third
baseman would have been playing closer to the bag, and Aoki’s double might have
turned into the game’s final out.
And then Yost cracked open the glass again. Terrence Gore
came out to run for Aoki. He, too, lit out for third with two outs. Lorenzo
Cain hit a bouncer over the mound. Gore never stopped running, and scored
standing up, without even a throw.
You might see a runner score from second on a wild pitch,
or on an infield single, once or twice a season. I’m fairly confident I have
never seen that happen twice in the same inning, let alone to score the tying
and winning runs in the ninth inning in the middle of September in a pennant
race.
And just as Yost deserved so much criticism for what
happened on Sunday, he deserves so much credit for what happened on Monday.
Dyson and Gore might be the two fastest players in the American League right
now. They are capital-W Weapons, and they had an enormous impact on a game the
Royals simply had to win.
Yost deserves credit for using them, and Dayton Moore
deserves credit for giving him those weapons to begin with. Specifically Gore,
of whom I started hoping, once it became clear in early August that the Royals
might be in a pennant race after all, would get called up once rosters
expanded. It was hardly a gimme; Gore had to be added to the 40-man roster, and
there is the little matter of Gore not having any hitting ability whatsoever. I’m
not trying to be cruel, but let’s be honest: he hit .218/.284/.258 in A-ball
this year. He makes Dyson look like Tony Gwynn at the plate. But damn if he can’t
fly. The Royals promoted him to Triple-A on August 7th to see if he could
handle the faster pace of the game there, and when he could, he had his ticket
to Kansas City punched.
It seems so obvious, to add a pinch-runner to your team
in September on the off-chance that he might help you win a game. A month of
service time in the majors will earn him about $80,000. Teams pay $5-6 million
a win on the free agent market, and I would argue that for a team in a pennant
race in September, where the odds that a single win might tip them into the
playoffs, the value of one extra win goes up, to $8 million if not more. Which
means that if having Gore on their roster increased the Royals’ odds of winning
one game by one percent, it was worth the cost.
And yet teams so often don’t simply call up the fastest
guy in their organization. As J.J. Cooper of Baseball America pointed out
yesterday, two years ago the Cincinnati Reds didn’t bother to add Billy
Hamilton to their roster in September, even after Hamilton set the all-time professional record with 155 stolen bases that
year in the minors. Maybe the Reds didn’t need him; they went into September
leading the division by 9.5 games. But maybe they could have used him in the
playoffs; after winning the first two games of the NLDS, they lost Game 3 in
extra innings, 2-1, and then lost Games 4 and 5 to get eliminated.
The Royals decided not to take any chances. They didn’t
only call up Gore, they also called up Lane Adams, who isn’t nearly as fast but
is certainly fast enough to be used as an auxiliary pinch-runner. Which is
exactly what he did in the seventh inning, after Raul Ibanez walked to put the
tying run on first base. By having two pinch-runners in reserve, Yost was able
to use one of them in a non-crucial situation while using his true game-changer
for an emergency.
And here’s where David Glass deserves some credit to,
because he authorized the Royals’ front office to bring up every minor leaguer
they wanted to. Do you know how many players are on the Royals’ active roster right
now? 36. They have 20 hitters, including a third catcher on a team where even the
second catcher never plays (Francisco Pena), two backup infielders (Johnny
Giavotella and Jayson Nix) even with Christian Colon out, and two different
players whose only job is to run the bases.
Dyson might not have pinch-ran for Moustakas if the Royals didn't have anyone left on the bench who could play third base, with Colon injured, and Nix having been pulled for Moustakas. But Giavotella was there. Gio hasn't played in a single game since he was called up, but if his mere presence on the bench made it easier for Yost to gamble with Dyson's speed, then his callup has paid for itself.
That’s 11 extra players on the roster, which adds roughly
$900,000 to the payroll. It’s not a huge expense, but it is an expense, and it’s
the sort of expense that the Glass family has been accused of skimping on in
the past. Not this time. And it’s worked out.
Gore has appeared in four games without a plate
appearance, which already ranks 15th all time among position players. Adams has
three games without a PA, which is tied for 20th. One or the other may
eventually get an at-bat in a game or situation that doesn’t matter much, but If
this holds, the 2014 Royals would be the first team in history with two
position players that appeared in 3+ games without batting even once. Having an
exclusive pinch-runner on your roster is rare; having two is historic.
As we saw last night, it’s also really, really smart.
Maybe Yost didn’t get the memo until after Daniel Nava’s home run cleared the
fence, but the Royals’ front office got it early on: September is different, and when
you’re in a pennant race, you leave no stone unturned in your quest for wins.
They kicked over a stone last night, two track stars popped out, and the entire
complexion of the race changed. Well done, guys. Well done.
3 comments:
Thank you for this write-up. You give much appreciated context to the win last night. I am a Twins fan first, a Royals fan second, so if even one of the teams is in the hunt for a playoff spot--happy days are here again.
I had no idea how the Royals got those 9th inning runs. Great write up.
Cheers!
JzB
Aoki is in 'the zone' right now. Every time he comes up to bat, I feel a greater need to see him get on base. It's exciting.
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