Wednesday, May 18, 2011

A New, And Improved, Lineup.

Here, presented without any commentary, are the combined statistics for the nine slots in the Royals’ lineup. Take a minute to look it over and see what stands out to you:

#1: .201/.281/.331
#2: .275/.313/.462
#3: .296/.353/.491
#4: .285/.394/.437
#5: .234/.307/.449
#6: .271/.333/.426
#7: .264/.323/.405
#8: .211/.340/.308
#9: .257/.303/.326

There are a lot of conclusions one can draw from those numbers, but I think it’s safe to say that the first thing most of you will notice is this: the Royals’ worst lineup slot this season has been their leadoff hitter.

Or to put it another way, the guy in the lineup who bats the most has also been the guy in the lineup who hits the worst.

There has been a lot of research done on the optimum way to build a lineup, as well as on just how important it is to have an optimum lineup in the first place. Most analysts agree that the difference between the absolute best possible lineup and a poorly-constructed one is rarely more than 20 or 30 runs. On the other hand, 1) 20 or 30 runs means two or three wins, which can be the difference between first and second place; 2) the majority of the difference can be had by prioritizing a few simple things.

The first thing to prioritize is this: let your best hitters bat more often.

The next thing to prioritize is this: put the hitters who get on base ahead of the hitters who can drive them in.

So far this year, in 41 games, the Royals’ worst hitter has batted most often. More than that, the Royals’ leadoff hitter has reached base less often than every other spot in the lineup. That’s an impressive trick. The Royals’ leadoff hitter has a .281 OBP, which is Yuniesque. The Royals don’t lack for hitters who can drive in runners – indeed, the #2 through #7 spots in the lineup all have higher slugging averages than the AL mean. What they lack is the hitter who gets on base ahead of them.

(Amazingly enough, two AL teams – the Orioles (.279) and Rays (.277) have lower OBPs from the leadoff spot. It’s still nothing to be proud of.)

It’s been a group effort from the leadoff spot. Chris Getz has led off 19 times, and has hit .181/.274/.236. Getz isn’t hitting from any spot in the lineup, and one can only hope that the Royals’ insistence that he’s a major-league caliber second baseman is starting to weaken. Mike Aviles has started 15 times, and while he’s a good hitter, he’s woefully ill-suited for the leadoff spot – he’s hitting .203/.253/.420. (Jarrod Dyson has started six times, and is 3-for-20.)

The one thing that the leadoff hitters have brought collectively is speed – they are a perfect 13-for-13 in steal attempts, while no other lineup spot has more than seven. And if this were 1979, people might even say that it was worth putting up with the low OBP to keep the speed at the top of the lineup. I mean, it worked for Omar Moreno.

We know better now. For one thing, if the ultimate goal of any leadoff hitter is to score runs, we can simply look at the total number of times the leadoff hitter has crossed home plate – and despite all those steals, the Royals’ leadoff hitter has scored just 19 runs in 41 games. That’s a horrific number – the leadoff hitter is on pace to score 75 runs all year, and that’s for a mythical leadoff hitter that plays every inning of every game. And that’s with a well above-average middle of the lineup to drive him in.

Or look at it another way. The only inning in the game where you know exactly who is scheduled to bat is the first inning – a well-constructed lineup should score a higher percentage of its runs in the first inning than in any other inning. In 41 games, the Royals have scored 14 runs in the first inning – 0.34 runs per inning. That’s 35% lower than their average of 0.52 runs per inning. In the second inning – when the middle of the lineup is generally due up – the Royals have scored 24 runs.

By comparison, the Royals’ opponents have scored 36 runs in the first inning. After one inning, the Royals have led just five times, but have trailed 16 times.

Suffice it to say, the Royals have had no success to speak of from the leadoff spot, and this one weakness has led to a dysfunctional offense that has hamstrung the Royals’ ability to score early.

Enter Alex Gordon.

You may recall that when Hosmer was called up, I suggested that he bat leadoff. This led to a discussion with Nate Bukaty and Steven St. John on 810 WHB, with Nate suggesting that for clubhouse reasons it wasn’t practical to lead off with Hosmer, but that you might be able to do it with Gordon. Which was fine with me. At this stage of their careers, Hosmer and Gordon are pretty similar offensive players – left-handed hitters who can hit for a good average, will take a walk, and have power to the gaps if not to the bleachers, and while neither one is a threat for 40 steals, they both have the speed to take the extra base and occasionally catch the opponents napping with a steal.

If anything, from what we’ve seen from Hosmer so far, he probably has more home run power than the re-tooled Gordon. In which case he might be the better candidate for the #3 hole.

Done and done. Tonight’s lineup:

L 7 Gordon
S 8 Cabrera
L 3 Hosmer
R 9 Francoeur
R 0 Butler
S 5 Betemit
R 2 Treanor
L 4 Getz
R 6 Escobar

This isn’t the ideal lineup – any lineup with Getz in it can’t be called “ideal” – but it’s close. In a world without relievers, an ideal lineup would probably have Hosmer batting second – the most controversial finding of lineup analysis, but one I firmly believe, is that you want your best hitter to bat second, not third. But a real lineup has to split up the lefties and righties, and this lineup does that pretty well. I’d flip-flop Betemit and Cabrera – Betemit gets on base more, and if you bat him higher in the lineup, you can get more at-bats out of him before pulling him for defense in the late innings. But otherwise it’s pretty good.

What’s really interesting about the lineup is that Butler has moved down to fifth. I can’t speak to the psychological issues here; if Butler views this as a demotion and pouts, that could be a problem. (Remember, a permanent move to DH combined with a lineup demotion just sparked a huge controversy in New York.) But if Butler is okay with batting fifth, I actually like the move a lot.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, you don’t want a low-OBP slugger in the #5 hole. Why is that? Because the #5 hitter is most likely to lead off the second inning. If Butler doesn’t bat in the first inning, he’s going to bat first or second in the second inning, where his OBP skills come into play. And if he does at in the first inning, it’s likely to be with two outs, which takes his GIDP skills out of play.

This change in the lineup isn’t going to be worth a run a game, or a quarter of a run a game; it might be worth a tenth of a run per game. But every run counts. Teams pay millions of dollars for players who might help them score 10 or 15 runs more per season. Tonight the Royals are getting a similar boost without paying a dime.

So kudos to Ned Yost for doing the unthinkable and listening to the blogs and sports talk radio. (Or coming up with a blog/sports talk radio idea on his own, which would be equally impressive.) Let’s just hope he has the conviction to stick with an unconventional, but more effective, lineup all season.


Anonymous said...

Good stuff. Kudos to Yost for at least shifting it up a bit.

Do you think we will ever see Gordon, Moose, Hosmer, Butler Myers?

Follow it up with Perez, Cain, Aviles, Escobar.

June 1, 2013 lineup?

Except substitute Rickie Weeks for Aviles who will be signed this offseason as a FA.

Michael said...

This supposed great lineup went 1 for 20 in spots 1-5 tonight (not including pinch hitters/pinch runners). My guess is someone like Getz or Dyson leads off tomorrow. :(

Daniel said...

Exactly. Flip Betemit into the #2 hole, and that works...from there, hit Aviles #6 where his extra-base hit skills have a better chance at driving Billy in, Cabrera after him, then throw in Treanor and Escobar.

The one thing that throws a monkey wrench into things is wishing that Alex would strike out less, which I think is very possible as Alex himself mentioned trying to be a more patient hitter while batting leadoff. I'll cross my fingers that Yost sticks with it for a little while.

Anonymous said...

Replace Getz with Aviles and that's probably the best lineup the Royals can throw out there.

I was surprised to see Gordon leading off. I hope Ned sticks with it.

KHAZAD said...

I was in agreement with you about Hosmer batting leadoff, but the #3 hole is his eventual destination, so I am OK with hitting him there now.

I like the changes to the lineup for the most part, but am in agreement with you about Betemit hitting 2nd. He takes a nice amount of walks, and although he is a below average runner, I don't want guys getting caught in front of my best hitters anyway.

Interesting ideas about Butler going to 5th. I see that as an eventual destination for him anyway, and Frenchy is the closest thing to a power hitter we have. Hitting 5th also means he might be pitched to carefully, which could lead to a lot of walks that Frenchy would not take anyway in the same position.

If they must play Getz, I would flip flop him and Treanor. Not because Getz is better, of course, just because I like a little speed in front of the 8 and 9 hitters. I want then seeing more fastballs, and having a guy on second that a single will drive in.

Ideally, though, I would start Aviles over Getz and my lineup would be:


I am willing to bet I will not see that lineup this year.

ScottShanks said...

I think Butler batting 5th is more designed to get Francouer better pitches to look at than any knock on Butler's production.

Harry said...

According to the KC Star, Yost says he's going to stick with the new line-up for a while: "I’m not going to bail on it after one day.... Let’s look at it and seek what it looks like, what it feels like."

Phil said...

My takeaway from this is that Ned is willing to work against convention. Yay.

More important is what seems to be a regression back to the mental approach of the 2006 royals. Two first base pick-offs in two ABs? On top of the 19-1 loss two nights ago. Plus a closer who suddenly blows saves on a regular basis... Eesh. It's hard to buy into a youth movent after the past five days.

Regarding the youth movement, I've recently realized that no matter how optimistic Rany is and no matter what the numbers say, I wont buy into the youth movement until we win a playoff series. Maybe I should petition for a robontheroyals blog instead.

Michael said...

steak-I will personally be happy to make the playoffs. If that happens, then I will believe in the youth movement. I don't expect us to win a playoff series our first time there in __ years. (Hopefully that number won't be over 30)

Nathan Hall said...

Five days is next to nothing. Every teams in baseball is going to play horribly during some five day stretch. It's not a good team yet, but these aren't the 2006 Royals.

I'm also not so sure that strikeouts are Gordon's problem. A strikeout is just an out--particularly for a leadoff hitter. The important thing is that he make hard contact when he does make contact, and draw a reasonable number of walks.

MSUngaKC1 said...

John Lamb - S - Kansas City Royals Friday May. 20, 2011
Elite Royals' left-handed pitching prospect John Lamb was forced from his start for Double-A Northwest Arkansas after just six pitches on Thursday due to elbow discomfort.
Source: Ken Rosenthal on Twitter May. 20 - 9:13 am et

This doesn't sound like an issue with his lat muscle! He was throwing 86 - 89 in Surprise and in the opening weekend Future's game at the K - I hope he/they caught this before it is serious!

McGoldencrown said...

It seems to me, without putting a whole lot of thought into it, that 20 or 30 extra runs could equate to more than 2 or 3 extra wins. In fact, I would like to challenge that notion. Does 900 runs scored equals 90 wins? On a great pitching team, which we are extremely not, 30 spare runs might easily equal 8 to 10 more wins. just sayin.

Michael said...

McGoldencrown-on a great pitching team, those 20 to 30 extra runs would mean more than on the Royals, which are clearly NOT a great pitching team. On a great pitching team, those extra runs could be the difference between a 2-1 loss and a 3-2 win. On a bad pitching team, it could mean the difference between a 10-4 loss and a 10-6 loss. Hence why sabremetricians use 10 runs=1 extra win as a general average.

Kenneth said...

Is it time we should give Sofia a break and let Aaron crow close for a little bit? Doesn't Soria have to be hurt? How else do you go from 4year league dominance to what we are seeing this year?

Antonio. said...

Relievers tend to have up and down careers often with short life spans. I'm hoping he's just down and that it's only for the start of this season, but I'm not so sure that he's necessarily hurt.