Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Dyson: Does He Suck Up Everything, Or Just Suck?

With another season having come to another merciful end, there’s a lot we can take away from the last six months. What looked in March like a promising up-and-coming farm system is now generally accepted to be the best in the game. Zack Greinke declined; Joakim Soria didn’t. Kila Ka’aihue restored his luster; Alex Gordon didn’t. Mike Aviles impressed, then he didn’t, then he did again. Wilson Betemit exploded out of nowhere; Brian Bannister shriveled into irrelevance. Yuniesky Betancourt improved from being an all-out disaster to…well…something less than an all-out disaster.

And most importantly, the Royals finally, belatedly started clearing house; by the end of the season Kyle Farnsworth was blowing leads and Rick Ankiel was striking out in Atlanta, Willie Bloomquist was dispensing his winning attitude on an actual winning team in Cincinnati, and Jose Guillen was hitting into rally-killing double plays in San Francisco. The future looks brighter today than it did in March, and frankly looks brighter than it has in seven years.

But the present is as grim as always. The Royals won 67 games this year, compared to 65 last year, and even that overstates their progress. The Royals have scored fewer runs this year (676) than last (684), and allowed more runs (845) than last (842). Soria’s superhuman season helped the Royals convert a slightly worse run differential into a slightly better record.

There’s a lot to ponder about the Royals’ performance this season. But over the last few weeks, I’ve spent more and more of my time thinking about a specific player, a player who until he was called up four weeks ago I had hardly thought about at all.

The first time I gave Jarrod Dyson serious consideration for even a moment was last winter, when I asked Trey Hillman at the Winter Meetings manager press conference whether there were any minor league players he was looking forward to having contribute at the major league level in 2010. Granted that none of them were quite ready yet, but I figured he’d mouth a few platitudes about Mike Moustakas or Eric Hosmer or Mike Montgomery. Instead he mentioned just one player – Jarrod Dyson, who was coming off of a season in which, at the ripe age of 24, he had hit .258/.331/.319 in Double-A.

That seemed…odd. I could make a cheap crack at Hillman’s expense here, but it’s not like Hillman was scouting Northwest Arkansas games while managing the team in 2009. (Although if he was, that would explain a lot of things…) No, it was clear that as an organization, the Royals were enamored with this speedy old outfield prospect with absolutely no power. The question was why.

Fast-forward through 2010, when Dyson missed the first half of the season with various injuries. He then returned and sped through some rehab stints – hitting .520 in rookie ball, .327 in Wilmington, .240 in NW Arkansas, with a lot of steals and not much else in the way of secondary skills. He made it to Omaha in late July – just a few weeks before he turned 26 years old, mind you – and hit .278/.327/.349. He did steal 13 bases in 46 games, and he did hit the first home run of his five-year professional career. (It hit off the top of the wall, and bounced over, for a grand slam.)

He was promoted to the majors on September 6th, and over the next two weeks played sparingly. In his debut, he pinch-hit and walked; in his second game, he pinch-ran and immediately stole second base. He did start on the 18th and get three hits, making him 5-for-14 in his brief career.

On September 21st, I got an email from a long-time contact of mine, a long-time Royals fan with a scouting background – let’s just call him Amateur Scout Guy, or ASG. ASG used to correspond with me years ago, primarily to let me know that I was vastly overrating Prospect X and that Pitcher Y was an arm injury waiting to happen. He didn’t impress easily. He was also usually correct.

I hadn’t heard from ASG in years, but something mildly disparaging I had written about Dyson caused him to reach out to me. “I saw Dyson in NW Arkansas and also in Omaha this year, and I gotta tell you... he is legit. I like him decidedly more than [Derrick] Robinson, and I will bet you Dyson plays a lot more for the MLB club than Robinson ever does. I thought he was fantastic - espec. his CF defense. His arm, speed, and CF defense ALL were clearly better than Robinson for me, and I think he'll hit and walk as much or more than Robinson as well.”

ASG was making a presentation for the defense in the case of Sabermetrics v. Jarrod Martel Dyson. The defense was helped when, that night, Dyson went 3-for-4 with two doubles. Four games later – he hit his first major-league home run, and this once cleared the right-field fence cleanly.

Of course, in the three games in between, Dyson went 0-for-14. I felt compelled to respond on behalf of the prosecution. “So please, if you can, explain to me this: why I should believe that Dyson can be the Royals' everyday centerfielder next year, given that he has no power (last night notwithstanding), he doesn't hit for much average, and he's too old to improve much more?

“I'm not saying you're wrong - on the contrary, he's opened my eyes with his speed and defense to the point where I'm willing to have my mind changed. But you can't just explain away a five-year track record.”

ASG conceded nothing. “Dyson will be a top-15, maybe a top-10 (he would be in my top-10) prospect in a loaded Royals system, the best in the game. Top-100 for BA? No, but he’ll play more MLB games than 20-30% of the top-100 will. Sure, if he was 22 or 23, BA and everyone else would be all over him. But he’s not, and yet that’s got nothing to do with his ability and tools. I am telling you, at this point, I am convinced the organization believes much more strongly in Dyson than they do in Robinson. No doubt in my mind whatsoever. Robinson is 22 years old, so… get my point?

“…I really believe in the CONCEPT that there are some ultra-athletic – but raw – position players who can come very quickly, put it together very fast.”

Obviously, we have a disconnect here. The stats say Jarrod Dyson is a poor man’s Joey Gathright, or (as I compared him to before the season) Endy Chavez: a player with top-of-the-line speed and defense, but below-replacement-level hitting skills. The scouts – or at least one scout – thinks that Dyson’s numbers are a reflection of his inexperience playing the game, and that – even at age 26 – he is poised to take a giant step forward and become a quality everyday centerfielder in the majors.

I don’t doubt ASG when he says that “the organization believes much more strongly in Dyson than they do in Robinson.” This is, after all, the same organization that believed much more strongly in Jason Kendall than in John Buck, and in Mike Jacobs over Kila Ka’aihue. You’ll have to forgive me for not putting much stock in the organization’s opinion.

That said, I made it a point to watch Dyson as much as possible in the season’s final weeks. And I saw enough to understand why a scout would believe his eyes over a lyin’ stat sheet.

It’s not just that Dyson has speed to burn, though he certainly does. I don’t have the scouting bonafides to throw an “80 speed” label on a player, but if he’s not an 80, he’s at least a 75. He’s clearly the fastest Royal since Gathright. In 305 minor league games – basically two full seasons – Dyson stole 131 bases, at an 80% success rate. In just 14 starts and a handful of late-inning appearances with the Royals, Dyson stole 9 bases, and was caught once. The dude is fast.

But it’s not just his speed on the bases that is so enticing. It’s that he makes such good use of his speed in the outfield – he gets a quick first step, and accelerates rapidly. Again, I’m not comfortable calling him an “80 glove”, but I think it’s fair to say he’s a 70 – a plus-plus centerfielder. The only Royal outfielder in the last 15 years who put his speed to such good use defensively was Carlos Beltran.

On Monday, September 27th, in just his eighth start in the majors, Dyson recorded 10 putouts in centerfield – tying the Royals’ franchise record for putouts by an outfielder. Granted, there’s some luck in having that many flyballs in your vicinity in one game, but it says something that the record he tied was shared by Amos Otis and Beltran, two of the four elite defensive centerfielders in Royals history. (The other two would be Willie Wilson for a stretch in the early 80s, and Brian McRae for a stretch in the early 90s.)

In 129 innings in center field, Dyson had a range factor of 3.49, meaning he recorded 3.49 outs per nine innings. I’m fairly certain that no centerfielder in history has ever had a range factor of 3.49 for a full season. (Anything over 3 is Richie Ashburn/Willie Mays/Andruw Jones territory.) The advanced metrics are similarly gushing about Dyson’s defense; Total Zone ranks Dyson as 3 runs above average, and Baseball Info Solutions’ plus/minus system ranks him at 4 runs above average – in the equivalent of less than 15 games in the field.

On top of that, Dyson actually has a pretty strong arm – maybe a 60 or 65 on the scouting scale. Most waterbug-type centerfielders who can run like the wind but can’t hit for power have noodle arms – think Juan Pierre, or Coco Crisp, or even Johnny Damon. Dyson doesn’t fit that mold at all.

So you’ve got a player with three above-average to outstanding tools in his speed, glove, and arm. I can see how that might get the scouts salivating. That still doesn’t make him a valuable player. He has no power, and while he might have the speed to beat out a bunch of groundballs Ichiro-style, he doesn’t make good enough contact to hit for a good average. His strikeout rate in the minors is about 108 per season, and in his major-league cup of coffee, he struck out 16 times in just 57 at-bats.

Dyson’s final start of the season was a microcosm of his talents. His first time up, he reached base when the third baseman bobbled his groundball. Does Dan Johnson make an error if he wasn’t rushing to throw out the speedy Dyson? Maybe not. In the third inning, he caught up to Carl Crawford’s fly ball deep in the right-centerfield gap and made the catch look almost routine. In the bottom of the fifth, he laid down a textbook sacrifice bunt to move Mitch Maier from first to second.

But in his other three at-bats, he made outs, twice on a strikeout.

As he stands now, Dyson is certainly an intriguing player – a fantastic late-inning defensive replacement/pinch-runner, but someone who simply doesn’t hit enough to start. There’s no way to spin the stats to make him out to be anything more than a fourth outfielder, and at age 26, there’s no way to spin a projection system to suggest that he’s going to improve much upon who he already is.

The argument for Dyson, then, is that even though he’s already 26, he’s so inexperienced at playing baseball that he has an uncommon amount of room to improve. Dyson hardly played baseball before he was signed by the Royals as a 50th-round pick, and while he’s been in the system for five years, he’s played in just 323 games as a pro.

I’m sympathetic to the argument that an exceedingly athletic player with not a lot of experience can be expected to improve, even if he’s already in his mid-20s. The classic case of this would be Kenny Lofton, who was more of a basketball player than a baseball player in college (he was the sixth man on some great University of Arizona teams). Lofton was also a late pick; he was selected by the Astros in the 17th round in 1988. Three years later, in a good hitter’s park in Triple-A, Lofton hit .308/.367/.417 with just two home runs, struggled in a September call-up, and the Astros were so unimpressed they traded him to Cleveland that winter for Eddie Taubensee.

The next year, Lofton hit .285/.362/.365 for the Indians, led the league with 66 steals, and finished second in Rookie of the Year voting. The year after that, Lofton began a seven-year stretch (1993 to 1999) where he was arguably the best leadoff hitter in baseball.

So yeah, I’ve seen athletic hitters figure it all out and become late bloomers. But look, Dyson is no Lofton. Lofton was old for an elite prospect, but he was 24 when he was Triple-A; Dyson was nearly 26. Lofton struck out a lot less, and hit for much better batting averages. And even though the Astros didn’t respect his talent, the rest of baseball did – Baseball America ranked Lofton as the #28 prospect in baseball after the 1991 season. Dyson’s not going to sniff their top 100.

Of course, Dyson doesn’t have to be nearly as good as Lofton to still be an asset for the Royals. He needs to cut his strikeouts, and he needs to hit lefties (he batted just .203/.242/.271 against LHP in Omaha; against RHP he hit .301/.362/.382.) But if he can hit .270 and draw the occasional walk, his speed and defense will make him a valuable player.

Dyson’s statistical track record would make you believe that even that modest ambition is unrealistic. The Royals, and ASG, will make you believe that it is. I don’t have a strong position either way. That, in itself, is progress, because a month ago I thought that Jarrod Dyson was a complete distraction from the minor league players who actually have a real future. Now, I’m willing to keep an open mind.

While Derrick Robinson might be the future in centerfield, he’s certainly far from ready. Next year is likely to be a transitional year, a year where the makeup of the roster in September is likely to be dramatically different than it was in April. It’s a year for the Royals to experiment a little, and see what they have with some of their young players, as opposed to wasting time with more short-term veteran solutions.

Given that, what do the Royals have to lose by letting Dyson play centerfield next season? If nothing else, his stellar defense may help in the development of some of the team’s many young pitchers. I do think Dyson will benefit from another half-season in Omaha, while Mitch Maier and Gregor Blanco get to showcase themselves in the majors.

But the thought of Dyson starting in centerfield next July, or even next April, no longer fills me with dread. On the contrary, I think it will be quite fascinating to watch. The all-out war between Scouts and Stats has simmered down to a low-level guerrilla battle. Dyson remains one of the few remaining flashpoints in this conflict. Regardless of which side wins, we’ll learn something from the outcome. We’ll get to watch an exciting rookie try to establish in the majors instead of watching another thirtysomething veteran cash a paycheck. And who knows? The Royals might have a found a viable everyday player in the 50th round.

62 comments:

Michael said...

I'm not sold either, but like you am willing to give him some chances. He does already have 3 above average to excellent tools, it's just sad that the 2 he doesn't have are probably the most important.

Anonymous said...

sounds like duraflame

Anonymous said...

I've seen some dreadful Ks and some great speed. Mixed bag.

Anonymous said...

But can he jump over a car? I guess the Royals can afford to take a flyer on him because they are not going anywhere next year anyway. But I doubt we will see much improvement offensively from him.

Regardless, it just would not feel like a real season if we did not have a light hitting OF who was playing because he is really fast.

skeptic said...

If he's not blocking anyone, why not play him? He's certainly more fun to watch than Rick Ankiel or Willie Bloomquist.

Nathan said...

Sure, why not? Even if he can't cut it as a starter, Dyson still seems like a handy guy for our eventual contending team to have on the roster. He might as well get some MLB experience before transitioning to a bench role, and if he continues to earn starts, it's a bonus.

Kyle said...

I would much rather see Dyson, who we don't know a whole lot about, than Mitch Maier. The only thing that concerns me is the totally LHH outfield the Royals are about to have next year. I guess Gordon and DDj are pretty much guaranteed starters, and Blanco, Dyson, and Maier platoon in CF?

They need to take all of that money they want to waste on "Veteran Leaders" and spend it on a #2 starter. This team could still be pretty decent next year with one more starting pitcher. The bullpen should be nice, young, and inexpensive. Moustakas should be up by June, pushing Fields/Betemit to utility/bench power bat.

Anonymous said...

I have a PhD in statistics, and because of that, not in spite of it, I don't believe that statistics can build a perfect baseball team. All statistics can do is "prove" or disprove a theroy. It can't propose a new model. People have to do that.

People miss the point of Moneyball. It was not OPS was the key statistics in baseball. It was people were overpaying for certain stats (HRs and RBIs) and under valueing others (OPS). If the Royals are going to win, they need to find the next catagory that the market is undervalueing. That may be speed as "everyone" now thinks speed is not as important as frawing a walk.

John said...

I wouldn't write Dyson off, either. There are a few precedents for players in his circumstance developing into a productive MLB player after the age of 25.

His skill set is pretty much the same as Otis Nixon, who came to the majors young, but never played regularly until he was past 30, and had learned to get on base enough to use his speed. Maury Wills is similar too, although Maury was an infielder. Just didn't hit a lick until he was 26.

As far as the inexperienced baseball player taken in a 50-something round, who turned into a real player, the Royals have been there before. Only they gave up on Jeff Conine right before Conine figured it all out.

They have nothing to lose by giving him a chance. If he's Joey Gathright, you try someone else. If he's Otis Nixon, he's a good player for a few years. And Heaven forbid, if he's a center field version of Maury Wills, you just won the lottery.

Anonymous said...

Sure give him a shot. Gregor Blanco looks so average as well. Wake me up when this team puts position players on the field that could start anywhere in mlb on a team with a winning record. A KC starter and a MLB starter are 2 entirely different players.

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure I'm seeing the argument that Dyson doesn't hit enough to start.

In 57 AB this season, he produced a 0.6 WAR. Extrapolate that out over a full season - and even take a discount to the final result - and he would be one of our most valuable players.

His hitting certainly wasn't great, but his plus-plus defense in center makes up for it. His .275 BABIP doesn't suggest that he received any extra luck in hitting this year.

If Dyson can continue to provide a UZR/150 of 30+, he needs to be starting in center every game next year.

Anonymous said...

No one provides a UZR/150 of 30+.

kingofkansascity said...

The Royals have needed to improve their defense, especially up the middle, and Dyson does that. He's a plus fielder that would give the Royals their first quality outfield from a defensive standpoint since Damon-Beltran-Dye. Granted, Gordon-Dyson-DeJesus isn't nearly as good offensively, but maybe Dyson running down balls in center shaves something off the staff ERA.

Another thing to think about is his speed makes the Royals something more than a station to station team. He can go first to third, or score from first on something in a gap. Since KC doesn't have a lot of mashers in the lineup, guys need to be able to go first to third. It was frustrating to watch Jason Kendall only move up one base on a hit.

Chance said...

I don't remember the game or the exact situation, but I saw Dyson hit a triple against the Rays that Crawford jogged after because he thought it was a sure double and nothing else. Speed puts pressure on an opposing defense and pitcher. And we don't have mnay players who do that. His speed was breathtaking!

steak said...

Two Ranys in two days!

Anonymous said...

Rany has no credibility anymore. He is simply tumbleweed blowing in whatever direction the recent trends dictate. Once Dayton fails AGAIN, Rany will be back to his usual negative self. Its pathetic.

Anonymous said...

Jason Kendall is everything that is wrong with the Royals and the front office philosophy.

cspencef said...

Rany still has tons more credibility than the 12:57 p.m. anonymous poster. That said, this is more of a placeholder possibility than a likely long-term benefit, it seems. Still, at this point, no harm.

chris said...

FROM Keith Law's Chat Today:
Finn (Detroit)


Does Dayton Moore's farm development excuse his complete incompetence at the MLB level? Those prospects won't do it ALL on their own right?
Klaw
(2:19 PM)


I'll probably write this up later today, but I saw Jason Adam on Tuesday for 3 innings, and if he'd thrown like that in front of some scouting directors this spring he would probably have been a first-rounder.

Kyle said...

As some of you saw in Rany's post about the Giants GM, every GM has a few bad moves. I think every move DM made this season was a good one (minus Kendal). Pods and Ankiel (with Farnsworth) turned into 3 pitching prospects, a C, and a CF. B. Anderson has turned himself into a RP that had a pretty good year.

The Callaspo trade brought back a great LH prospect and a very young MLB pitcher. O'Sullivan's last 3 starts were great, after they changed his momentum towards the plate.I was not a fan of Jacobs/Nunez trade, but I did like the Coco/Ramirez trade. Neither worked out, but he tried.

As for Keith Law's comments, I don't think it completely excuses him. But he is learning from his mistakes. This farm system is as loaded from top to bottom as any other system in baseball. Moore should only need to make a trade or 2 and 3 FA signings to make this team a winner for 2012-2015.

Scott said...

While this is splitting hairs, I think you were wrong about the use of speed in CF. Truth be told Damon might well have used his speed the best of any CF in MLB history. His UZR and other similar stats for his time patrolling CF in KC put him amongst the better defensive CF even with his obvious warts to those of that saw him nearly daily. I am not even getting into the lack of arm, which I still contend that my grandmother could throw the ball further then him and she was in the grave for 15 years before he debuted, but rather just the use of his speed.

After looking at the stats, try to recall him in CF. His routes to balls were atrocious at best. His jumps on the ball and how he read it off the bat might well be just as bad. Yet he was able to consistently rank in the top 5 CF in MLB by the stats.

Rany said...

Scott,

It's a semantic argument, but I would argue that Damon didn't make the best use of his speed precisely because he didn't take the best routes. He was a good centerfielder at his peak, but never a great one, even though he was one of the fastest outfielders in the game. His arm, of course, was another story.

chris said...

Kyle,

Totally agree. I just threw this in here to show how stacked this system is right now. Moore has a lot of work to do but he's just dominating the minor league stuff right now.

And, it's especially meaningful coming from Keith Law, who's really good at what he does and does give praise lightly.

Shelby said...

Rany, I've always been an enormous fan of your writing.

I feel I have to admit that I think your writing is actually getting better.

For me anyway, this was a striking and compelling piece. And it's about Jarrod Dyson.

Paul said...

@Kyle
"This team could still be pretty decent next year with one more starting pitcher"

Not sure if there was sarcasm or you are drinking the Royals Kool-Aid, but even if the Royals got David Price or Lester or Christy Mathewson for next year, this team is going to be bad next year. 90+ losses again.
SOS pulled the Kyle Davies on us with his decent 3 starts at the end of the year. Folks, please don't forget his other crappy starts. Plus Davies and Banny and we have a craptastic rotation even with Zack and Lincecaum. And Timmy and Halladay ain't coming to KC.

Trade Zack and Soria and make a run for the window that will be 2013-2018.

Anonymous said...

Dayton Moore fucking sucks.

End of discussion.

This forum is getting worse than those Dayton loving pussies at Royals Corner.

Michael said...

Paul and Anonymous, take your pessimism and shove it up your ass. There is a ton of good things to look forward to with the Royals, and it will start next year. Collins and Moustakas will be in the big leagues at some point next year, and there is a good chance we'll probably see a couple more of these talented prospects at some point. If you can't get excited about that, then trade your Royals cap for a Yankees cap and get off this page!!

Paul said...

Michael-
Please don't lump me in with the Anonymous poster.
There have been some racist and crazy remarks from there.
My posts were just to put a check into everyone's sudden Royals' 2011 excitement.
I read everything Rany and Joe P writes, watch (most) games, and am on RR discussing prospects and current players.
I think 2013 is a more realistic year that this team will be good. I hope I am wrong and this team wins the Central next year, I am just not going to hold my breath.
I firmly believe we should trade Zack and Soria (even though I still want to see Jack start, but apparently I am in the minority)

I just don't understand where this optimism should come from. Am I the only one that watches these 68 win seasons.
I know we have the best system in baseball, and maybe they all win turn out kinda like the Indians of the early 90's. But it ain't gonna start next year. Even the organization says 2012, which really means it will be 2013.

John said...

Michael-
lay off Paul. He writes some good stuff. He is a true Royals fan.

George said...

Paul rocks!

Ringo said...

Paul for GM.

Fast Eddie said...

Anonymous, this forum is getting worse solely because of your juvenile comments.

Too bad there's not a righty hitting CF to platoon Dyson with. He probably should be on the roster at least as a backup and late inning defensive replacement.

Anonymous said...

Interesting post, Rany, because I had a similar reaction to Dyson. My head tells me that he's "the wrong kind" of player -- a throwback to 70s guys like Omar Moreno who stole lots of bases but had terrible OBP and no power, made tons of outs. Speed's overrated when you're rarely on base.

But my heart fluttered when I watched Dyson play. I loved, loved, LOVED watching Willie Wilson fly around the ballpark. And watching Dyson in the OF was one of the few times this season I actually had FUN watching the Royals. So the head be damned -- I say let's give Dyson a legit shot in 2011.

KHAZAD said...

I am not completely sold on Dyson either, but still feel he should be given every chance to start in 2011. Hey, if Robinson (or someone else) follows up their 2010 and forces their way into the picture, great. Dyson would be a terrific 4th outfielder, even if that is all he became.

One of the earlier commenters mentioned that "Moneyball" was about which qualities were undervalued by other teams, allowing you to get a bargain.

I STILL feel walks are somewhat undervalued (I wish the Royals agreed), but the two most undervalued qualities today are defense and speed. Speed is the most undervalued quantity in Baseball today, ironically in part because of sabr stats that show how high of a stolen base pct you need to have the SB be a plus.

However, no one seems to take into account that speed helps defense, takes extra bases in other situations, puts more pressure on a pitcher (which can lead to mistakes and help the hitter at the plate), and that if you have a guy who can steal at an 80% rate, he is a plus without all the other stuff.

You can't steal first and speed doesn't exist in a vacuum, but it is an undervalued exploitable skill.

Anonymous said...

Rany Congrats on winning Best Radio Show KC Pitch!!!!!!!!

Jacob G. said...

Ankiel hitting a game winning homer in the 11th and Farnsworth following that up with the save is a sign of the apocalypse, right?

Scott said...

Rany,

You have to be correct that it is semantics when discussing the "use of his speed." Truthfully it is probably more connotation based around the phrase. I concede that argument for his use of speed does hold water in the way you pointed out.

I believe in mine as well. I think this is a time when we both have valid points and statements, but just from different points of view.

Anonymous said...

Rany- you gonna do callins to your radio show? Because I'm gonna have your ass.

Rany: does he suck up all Daytons crap? Or just suck?

Well, Rany you Benedict arnold bastard, the truth will come soon. Years from now when Dayton is still losing 90+ games while still favoring gritty vets like Kendall over the young guys.....well, there won't be room for your fat ass on the Anti- Anti-Anti Dayton Moore revolution.

Dayton Moore fucking sucks. Don't believe? Look at his history of transactions. But I'm sure everyone has an excuse for him. It's only been FOUR years, right! No GM could ever have a .500 year after 4 years!

Rany and Dayton - made for each other. Sickening.

Anonymous said...

In 2006, ESPN had KC farm system ranked at 4. How's that working out for us?

No farm system will ever cover up the fact that Dayton Moore has no clue how to evaluate major league baseball talent. As long as he favors guys like Kendall and Bloomquist. There is no hope.

Chance said...

Jacob,

I saw the same thing last night and threw up in my mouth, a little.

Paul,

I agree and want Jack to be tried as a starter. He is a wasted commodity on a losing team...does it really matter if you lose 90 games or 115? Or trade him for some help...I propose Jack to the Yankees for Cano and Chamberlain.

Your move, Hank.

Josh said...

I like Dyson. I think the Royals should have him on the opening day roster. I honestly think that we know what we have in Meier, and that Dyson and Blanco should either split time in center or Dyson should play every day. In all likelihood we will have a lot of young pitchers on the mound in '11 and to have a guy with Dyson's ability roaming around in center-field to erase some of their mistakes has to be a plus. The guy makes the K look small.

Anonymous said...

Paul, Fast Eddie, Rany, Michael, Dayton, and RC....quit sucking each other off and get back to reality. Dayton Moore. Worst GM. Ever.

Hillman, Yuni, Kendall, Freel, Horam, Bloomquist, etc etc etc......its like a clinic on how NOT to run a baseball team.

Fire away Dayton fags, but what is Daytons win/loss record at the MAJOR LEAGUE level?

Thought so.

Michael said...

Ok Anonymous. That's it. Tell me exactly what you would do this offseason to make the Royals a winning team. Tell me now. You think you know so damn much, please enlighten us all with your wisdom. All you have done is look at the past and said this move and that move sucked. But you haven't said what you would do. Please enlighten us, oh wise one.

Kyle said...

I agree with Michael. One of you guys that call Rany a DM lover, tell me what you would like to see? Are you even Royals' fans? Do you guys have your resumes in with the Royals? I would love to see some of your moves.

I am a Royals true blue Kool-Aid drinking fan. Every year, "I think this could be the year!" If Greinke, Soria, DDj, and Butler are on this team next year, they could have a chance. Moustakas, Hosmer, Monty, Duffy, Collins, Coleman, and Hardy will be in KC at some point in time next year.

I am not saying this is your 2011 AL Central winner, but they will be alright. Aviles should get a chance to start at SS, 3B, or 2B, and he will be completely healthy.

Anonymous said...

Cut Jason Kendall immediatly. He slugged less than .300....and Dayton Moore has no problem with that. The team ERA was abysmal.....and Dayton Moore has no problem with that.

Does anyone really doubt that Kendall will 1)Be ready for the season opener and 2) Be praised relentlessl for his veteran leadership and comeback and grit, even while sluggin less than .300 w/a OBP around the same 3) And guess what? Dayton will STILL have no problem with that.

Cutting Jason Kendall, Michael you sheep, is step ONE.

Step TWO- Let there be legitimate competition in camp. None of this garbage lip service to young guys having a chance, knowing full well the vet makes the team over youth...you know, for the "experience". And by "vet", I mean another old, below replacement value, chump ala Kendall, Bloomquist, Freel, etc....

Step THREE- Instead of signing 10 trash free agents, spend it all on ONE good player (good, not Guillen). Maybe a BJ Upton or Adam Dunn type. Overpay because you are the Royals- thats fine.

Step FOUR. Easiest of all. Thank Dayton Moore for, well, nothing, FIRE HIS SORRY ASS, and bring in someone who knows what major league talent is. And knows not a be a condescending prick to the teams fans.

What is Dayton Moores record at the Major League level again?

Anonymous said...

Michael, all you have is wishes and excuses for Dayton Moores incompetence. What do I have? His win/loss record at the major league level.

Check. Mate.

KC Royals 2006 ESPN Farm ranking =#4. Hows that working for ya now? LOL.

Dayton.Moore.Worst.GM.Ever.

Kyle said...

I would love to see Mark Cuban come in and by the Royals, and spend like he has in Dallas. But we all know that won't happen. The FA class is as weak as it has ever been. The few guys that are out there, are going to get WAY too much money. If it was possible to give Werth or Crawford, or Lee 3 years 15 mil/year, they should do it. I don't think that will happen though.

I have a feeling they want to "save" the money and wait for the talent. I don't like that one bit, it's not like they will spend it later on.

Anonymous said...

Enough excuses. This isnt little league. This is major league baseball where wins and losses are the sole factor a GM needs to be judged on.

Dayton Moore= EPIC FAIL.

Anonymous said...

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, 2009
I'm Done.
So the Royals have improbably swept the Tigers, as the trio of Bruce Chen, Robinson Tejeda, and Lenny DiNardo led the Royals to victory over Rick Porcello, Justin Verlander, and Jarrod Washburn. After eking out a win tonight in Cleveland, the Royals have won five games in a row for the first time since they were, yes, 18-11. Seems like a good time for some positivity.


If that’s what you’re thinking, I’m afraid I have to disappoint you.


I’ve let this column stew in my head for a few days now, in the hope that time would dull the sharp edges a little bit. As harsh as this column might read, trust me, if I had written it two days ago it would have been much, much worse.

Anonymous said...

Rany-What do I believe? The Sept 9,2010 article "Im Done" or the recent October 2010 article "How I learned to stop worrying and suck off err...love the GM"?????

You change positions so often its hard for me to keep up.

Heres an idea.....grow a pair.

Michael said...

First, your step one is kind of a moot point. There are many people who believe Jason Kendall is already done for next year. That problem has taken care of itself.

Second, spending all your dough on one good player?? Are you serious? I could maybe see that for 2012 when we should have enough quality young (and cheap) talent to fill in the rest of the roster, but not next year. If we did that, then we'd be stuck with a bunch of guys like Blanco, who aren't everyday players in the major leagues. Like it or not, the Royals do have a budget to stick to.

And as for your assertion that wins and losses at the major league level is how to judge a GM, you continually show your lack of knowledge on how small market baseball is ran. So keep talking. You will continue to lose credibility.

Another fact-there are only 2 bad contracts on the books for next year (Meche and Kendall), and they both expire after next year. That means in 2012, when most of the roster should be made up of young prospects, the Royals should have plenty of money to spend, if they so choose.

But guys like Crawford and Lee aren't going to come here anyway. Even if we overspend to get them, we can't offer them the one thing that matters a lot to major league ball players right now, and that's the chance to play in the post season. Until we get close to or in the playoffs, that will always be the case. The Royals have been in the discussion with many top free agents since Moore has been here, but they choose to play elsewhere for the chance to win. Pat Burrell (turned out to be a good thing we didn't get him), Torii Hunter, etc.

Anonymous said...

Michael, Michael, Michael.....where to begin? First Kendall will be back by the regular season. Why? Because this is the Royals and thats what happens.
He will be praised by our GM for his veteran leadership and grit, all while slugging less than .300 (again) and helping the team to a whopping 13th in the AL in ERA. Yay.

Yes, Michael, 1 GOOD Free Agent is better than 5 CRAPPY BELOW REPLACEMENT ONES. This is PROFESSIONAL baseball. Money talks. Sure if the salaries are close, they will take the winner...but the Royals have to overpay (and thats ok) and they will land that Werth or Lee or whoever. Money talks and even if loyalty and the thrill of a ring mean a lot to us fans, it means nothing to these mercanaries. Would you work somewhere else for double your salary? Of course you would.

2 Bad contracts now huh? Well, wait until another patented Dayton Moore offseason. I smell a Molina $5 mil contract somewhere....or another crap reliever for 2 yrs/5 mil- its just what Dayton Moore does.

Small market or big market, I dont really care- they all play in a PROFESSIONAL baseball league. Im tired of the excuses. Plenty of teams with payrolls have done bteer than losing 1000 games in a decade (the pace Dayton is on by the way). Florida, Tampa, SD....baseball is littered with examples of playoff teams from small markets.

The excuses are getting old, my man. Royals fans deserve better than the garbage that Dayton Moore shovels at us....its a shame that you are so beat down and Stockholm Syndromed, that you just cant see a con man when he is in action.

Dayton Moore treats the fans like crap, puts a crappy, extremely unlikable team on the field, hires idiots for managers.....yet everyone thinks he is doing great. Unreal. People here need to have more respect for themselves than this.

Michael said...

Another fallacy in your argument is that the GM is judged solely on wins and losses at the major league level. WRONG! The GM is judged based on the entirety of the organization, not just the major league team.

And just because you don't want to admit to the challenges of small market baseball doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Yes, there are examples every year of small market teams making the playoffs.

But guess what? Almost every single one of them went through long stretches of losing while they rebuilt the organization from the ground (minor leagues) up. That's exactly what the Royals are doing. And almost every single one of them took longer than 4 years before they saw the fruits of their labor.

There are no quick fixes in baseball my friend. Unless you have an owner who is willing to lose a lot of money to buy a championship, you have to do it this way, and it takes time. In a couple years, you'll either be eating crow or changing your tune. But since you post as "anonymous", we'll never know which you do.

Anonymous said...

excuses, excuses.....

Deep Dixie Blue said...

"There’s no way to spin the stats to make him out to be anything more than a fourth outfielder..."

But just a few paragraphs before you stated that Dyson's defensive metrics, by both Total Zone and Dewan's system, had him between 3-4 runs above average in just the equivalent of 15 games.

Granted, its an extremely small sample size, but those numbers reflected what the naked eye saw as well. And if you project those numbers over 150 games, that translates to 30-40 defensive runs saved above average, or 3-4 wins above average just from his defense.

Which means he could hit like a replacement level hitter (oWAR of 0.0)and still be the one of the most valuable players on the team. Dejesus was 2nd on the team this year with a 2.6 WAR.

BTW, Brett Gardner had a 39.6 uzr/150 this year. Francisco Gutierrez had a 28.9 last year. Andruw Jones was regularly in the mid to upper 20's as late as 2007. So it is not unheard of by any means.

Rick said...

Anon your rants are all over the place and your logic doesn't even make sense. Kendall will defy modern medicine and be back for the start of next year because they are the Royals? What? I'm pretty sure you are retarded. Get a life, find a new team to "root" for, and just shut up.

Rick Komer said...

Guys who attack Rany or Dayton Moore or anybody else by leaving anonymous comments are pathetic.

If you you want to say things like "Dayton Moore fucking sucks" or "This forum is getting worse than those Dayton loving pussies at Royals Corner", you should at least be man enough to put your name to it.

Otherwise, just shut the fuck up.

Anonymous said...

Over 4 years of Daytons crap and he can't even put a team on the field that doesn't finish dead last in the worst division in baseball.

Think about that..

Chance said...

Please just ignore Anonymous. He is a broken record and he attempts to make his points by cursing and swearing instead of by presenting rational arguments supplemented with facts and stats.

Responding to him is like giving him a winning lottery ticket...it is what he craves - attention.

Just like a puppy who chews up your shoes when you leave him alone, Anonymous is just desperate for attention. Maybe his mommy didn't breastfeed him, maybe his daddy never taught him to play catch, maybe he saw Dayton Moore at a restuarant and was treated poorly, I dont know.

Anyone who can only see one side of an issue has an axe to grind and will never be convinced of an opposing viewpoint, let alone actually consider any contrary points of view.

So quit trying to have a rational converation with him, and flush him. He will go away on his own.

KHAZAD said...

Chance-thanks for the laugh. Completely negative people who read and then comment anonymously, filled with envy and venom for everyone, are pathetic.

They are people that have no personal power in their own life, so they spend their time spewing venom on websites and bullying kids in low level customer service jobs.

Contempt for others is often rooted in self-contempt.

Anonymous said...

Khazad and Rany.....don't you guys have carbombs to make?

Anonymous said...

Actually, Contempt for Dayton Moore is rooted in err....contempt for Dayton Moore.