Monday, February 15, 2010

Now Starting For The Royals, Number 40...

As most of you know, Dick Kaegel had another scoop last week, and this time it was intentional:

Didn’t like Kyle Farnsworth as a relief pitcher? Hang on, he might be a starting pitcher for the Royals this year.

“Kyle Farnsworth is competing for a job in the rotation,” pitching coach Bob McClure revealed Wednesday.

That’s right, the big right-hander will at least get a chance to show what he can do as a starter in Spring Training.

“We’re going to lengthen him out and see how it goes,” McClure said. “Because what he showed me last year was the ability to back off a little bit and not pitch with his hair on fire. And, to be a starter, you have to be able to just kind of go pitch-by-pitch.”

I don’t want to oversell the impact of this proclamation – saying that Farnsworth is competing for a job in the rotation could mean anything from “he’s all but won a job” to “there’s no way in hell that he’s going to start for us, but we have to at least pretend that there’s a chance he’ll earn the money we’re paying him.” This could all be forgotten by mid-March, so it’s not worth getting too worked up about this either way.

Still, it’s worth talking about, because it certainly is…different. I will admit to thinking many different things – only some of them printable – when Kyle Farnsworth took the mound last year. At no point did one of those thoughts consist of, “you know, I think Farnsworth’s problem is that he’s miscast as a reliever.”

Having said that, I don’t want to dismiss this idea out of hand. Dave Cameron, who generally knows his baseball, has endorsed the move, going so far as to say “The Royals take a lot of crap from us, but I’ll applaud them for recognizing an opportunity here.” And an AL front office type I talked about this with actually thought it was a worthwhile gamble for the Royals. (He was too polite to indicate whether that was because Farnsworth had upside as a starter, or simply because the Royals have nothing to lose.)

So at the very least, it’s not fair to reflexively label this idea as another episode in that recurring reality show “Royals Gone Wild”. The fact that the Farnsworth-to-the-rotation idea seems to have come from left field does not automatically mean that it’s a ridiculous one.

Let me see if I can sum up all the reasons to make this move:

1) Farnsworth is a power pitcher, and clearly has enough velocity that even if he loses the usual 2-3 mph on his fastball when he has to pace himself, he should still have plenty of raw stuff to succeed in the rotation.

2) Bob McClure has a pretty good track record as a pitching coach.

3) Even if Farnsworth isn’t as effective in the rotation as he is in the bullpen, he might still be more valuable because he’ll throw a lot more innings.

4) After last year’s debacle, no one has any confidence that Farnsworth can pitch effectively out of the bullpen anyway, particularly not in key situations.

5) Farnsworth is a free agent at the end of the year, so while there is a risk that he’ll hurt his arm trying to make this move, the Royals aren’t on the hook for his contract past 2010.

The first thing you’ll notice about this list of reasons is that #3 and #4 directly contradict each other. The reason why starters generally don’t pitch as well as relievers is that relieving is a lot easier than starting – it’s much easier to throw all-out with your two best pitches for one or two innings, than to pace yourself and work in three or four pitches over a seven-inning stint. Studies have shown that the typical starting pitcher, when moved to the bullpen, will see his ERA drop by as much as 25%.

Which means the converse is true – the typical reliever, moving to the rotation, will see his ERA rise by close to 30%. The number of pitchers moved to the bullpen because they couldn’t cut it in the rotation is legion. The number of pitchers moved to the rotation because they sucked in the bullpen? That’s a much rarer entity, and for good reason. Making a reliever a starter because he sucks in relief is like moving a third baseman to shortstop because he couldn’t handle playing the hot corner.

That’s not to say this can’t work. Farnsworth does throw plenty hard: according to Fangraphs, the average velocity on his fastball last season was 96.0 mph, and over the last eight years his fastball has averaged 94.6. A reliever who throws 96 translates into a starter who throws 92-93, and that’s just fine. It’s absolutely true, as the Kaegel article suggests, that Farnsworth started throwing a cut fastball last season – he threw it 28% of the time, in fact. A pitcher who throws two kinds of fastballs and a slider has enough pitches to succeed in the rotation. And while Farnsworth doesn’t throw a curveball, my AL front office source mentioned that a few years back he saw Farnsworth throw a “surprisingly quality*” changeup on the sidelines, although Farnsworth rarely broke it out in a ballgame.

*: Total aside here, but am I the only one who’s amused by the KC Star’s writing guidelines, which require that the word [high-] be added onto a quote whenever someone says the word “quality”? Like this: “Bob McClure raved about Greinke’s repertoire. ‘Zack throws a [high-]quality fastball, a [high-]quality slider, a [high-]quality curveball, and a [high-]quality changeup. What more could you ask for?’” If I ever give an interview to the Star, I’m going to have to work in the word “quality” about a dozen times just to see what happens.

So the stuff is probably there for Farnsworth to succeed in the rotation. The problem is that the stuff is definitely there for him to succeed in the bullpen, yet his stuff rarely translates to results. In 11 major league seasons, Farnsworth has had an ERA under 4.00 just three times.

The biggest reason for Farnsworth’s lack of consistent success has been the fact that his fastball, while very fast, is also very straight, which leads to a ton of flyballs, some of which inevitably travel 400+ feet. For his career, Farnsworth has given up more than one home run every seven innings. This is not a trait you want in any pitcher, but particularly not a pitcher that you’re asking to face Jim Thome with the go-ahead runs on base in the eighth inning on Opening Day. Just hypothetically.

Now, if Farnsworth were really throwing a new cut fastball last season, one that has less velocity but more sink, you’d expect him to coax more groundballs. That, in fact, is exactly what happened. In the three seasons prior to joining the Royals, Farnsworth’s groundball rates were 34%, 30%, and 35%. Last year, his groundball rate jumped to 46%. Granted, it was a small sample size of just 37 innings, but it fits with the narrative that he quietly became a different pitcher last season. (Amazingly, he only gave up three homers all year – of course, two of them directly cost the Royals the game, and both during the first two weeks of the season.)

So there is, at least, some reason for optimism that Farnsworth can handle the change, at least in terms of his physical stuff. I confess to being worried about how Farnsworth can handle the change mentally, but that’s not fair to him. I mean, how well do we really know these guys? Farnsworth wears glasses, throws incredibly hard, and often has no idea where the ball is going – he certainly seems like a Rick Vaughn clone, a guy who’s not calm enough or not smart enough to pace himself over six or seven innings. He would seem oddly out of place on the mound in the first inning, like Keith Law in a churrascaria. But as fans we really don’t know whether he’s a completely different person behind the clichés. In the video attached to Kaegel’s article, Farnsworth describes how he loves to hunt and fish…but also admits that he loves to cook. So who knows?

I do think that Cameron goes overboard when he writes, “in a lot of ways, Farnsworth is reminiscent of Ryan Dempster, another power reliever with command problems who flourished with a move to the rotation.” Sure, Dempster has pitched beautifully for the Cubs since returning to the rotation – but Dempster had only been a full-time reliever for about three seasons before he made the move. He had 162 major-league starts to his credit before he became a full-time reliever, and while the results weren’t always pretty, sometimes they were – notably in 2000, when as a 23-year-old Dempster had a 3.66 ERA and struck out 209 batters in 226 innings.

Farnsworth, on the other hand, has just 26 major league starts on his resume, in his first two seasons in the majors a decade ago. He had a 5.81 ERA in those starts, and in 144 innings allowed 32 homers and struck out just 86 batters. Dempster might be a similar type of pitcher, but he’s simply not of the same quality. You might as well compare Farnsworth to John Smoltz – hey, Smoltz moved from the bullpen to the rotation successfully as well!

No, if you’re going to compare Farnsworth to a successful reliever-turned-starter, you need to compare him to his teammate, the guy who probably convinced the Royals that this crazy idea might be worth trying: Robinson Tejeda. Unfortunately, it’s precisely because of Tejeda that this idea makes no sense.

Let’s review Tejeda’s story, both for our benefit and for the benefit of the Royals, who have evidently forgotten it. Tejeda broke in with the Phillies in 2005, and after a brief stint in the bullpen, entered the starting rotation, where he stayed through two seasons with the Rangers. Between 2005 and 2007 Tejeda made 46 starts and just 13 relief appearances, and pitched lousy. He had a 4.91 career ERA, and a terrible strikeout-to-walk ratio of just 181 to 143. After four relief appearances with the Rangers in 2008, he was released and picked up by the Royals, for whom he has pitched brilliantly: in 113 innings, he has allowed just 65(!) hits and 7 homers, and while he’s walked 69 batters, he’s also struck out 128.

On September 4th last year the Royals moved him back into the rotation, and he continued to be unhittable, allowing just 15 hits in 32 innings. He was still wild (20 walks) but was still overpowering (32 Ks), and most importantly, was still effective (2.84 ERA).

And it appears the Royals have completely forgotten about him. Much like Alberto Callaspo has mysteriously become an afterthought in the Royals lineup, to the point where Kaegel’s projected Opening Day lineup excludes him, Tejeda has become the forgotten man in the Royals rotation.

In the same article that we learn of Farnsworth’s move to the rotation, we learn that “Farnsworth isn't the only pitcher who might emerge from the Royals' bullpen. Robinson Tejeda, another imposing right-hander, will also get a shot at the rotation after making six starts last season.” Really? He’ll get a shot? The guy who’s been lights out since joining the Royals, who was the team’s second-best starter down the stretch last year, will get the same shot to join the rotation as the guy who sucked last year and hasn’t started in the majors in a decade?

In this AP article, we learn from Trey Hillman that “I’m not counting Robby out.” Well, that’s awfully generous of you, to not count out the guy who saved you from 100 losses last September.

I’m not saying that Tejeda’s success in the rotation last September was for real. We’re all too familiar with great September performances from a young starter that didn’t carry over to the next season (see also Davies, Kyle). But don’t you think he at least deserves the chance to prove it was a mirage? Or at least a better chance than the guy who’s being moved to the rotation in part to keep him as far away from eighth-inning tie games as possible?

And really, there can only be room for one of them at most, because the rotation remains the team’s greatest strength – the CHONE projection system has ranked the Royals’ rotation as the sixth-best in baseball – and arguably doesn’t have room for either of them. The same five guys the Royals relied on most of last season – Greinke, Gil Meche, Brian Bannister, Luke Hochevar, and Davies – all return this season, and you can make a case that they’re still the five best options for the rotation.

Greinke and Meche are of course locks. Bannister, I think, has to be as well – he doesn’t have the repertoire you associate with a reliever, and his 4.73 ERA was far better than Davies and Hochevar. For the second time in three years he wore out down the stretch – he gave up 34 runs in 31 innings in his last six starts before getting shut down on September 2nd. You might argue that he’s incapable of lasting a full season in the rotation, but the flipside to that is that in his first 20 starts he had a 3.59 ERA and excellent peripherals, and if the Royals can figure out a way to maintain his stamina all year long, he’s an excellent #3 starter.

That leaves Hochevar and Davies. Hochevar is an enigma wrapped in a riddle shoved inside a mystery which is locked inside a puzzle, then the whole thing is deep-fried in a conundrum. I don’t think you can give up on a guy who in separate starts threw an 80-pitch complete game, struck out 13 batters and walked nobody, and threw a three-hit shutout – even if he did have a 6.55 ERA. Davies, on the other hand, has exasperated pretty much everyone with his inconsistency for going on five years now. He’s walked nearly a batter every other inning throughout his career, and I don’t think his problem is control so much as the fact that he feels he has to nibble to compensate for the fact that he doesn’t quite have elite-caliber stuff.

So I could see moving Davies to the bullpen in the hopes that his velocity picks up a notch, he feels emboldened to challenge hitters more, and voila! You have an excellent middle reliever who can throw 90-100 innings without a problem.

That opens up a job for one starter. And between the guy who did it last year and the guy who’s never done it, I know which guy I’d rather see in that role.

Like the Ankiel signing, in isolation I like the idea of trying Farnsworth in the rotation. The Royals have nothing to lose, and potentially something to gain. But also like the Ankiel signing, I keep thinking that the Royals are just waiting for major league baseball to announce a rule change mandating 30-man rosters and 7-man rotations any day now, and they’re going to be in for a rude shock come the end of March. Just as the Royals’ machinations with their offense will make a lot of sense if there’s a big trade brewing, so too does the idea to move Farnsworth to the rotation make a lot of sense if, say, Bannister is about to pack his bags. But we’ve received no indication that that’s going to happen.

Pitchers and catchers report this week, and all of these permutations will be sorted out soon enough. I’m just worried that the Royals are as in the dark as to the final outcome as we are.

81 comments:

Tom said...

Heh. I guess they decided they'd rather have Farnsworth ruining tie games in the 1st inning rather than the 8th.

ChrisM70 said...

Farnsworth a starter? Reminds me of when the Royals were trying to squeeze some kind of value out of Mark Davis so many years ago.

Joshua Fisher said...

I was going to do something about this over at THT last week, but ran out of time. Good thing I didn't...you did it better than I would have.

Rany said...

ChrisM70 - excellent call. Ah, the days of Mark Davis in the rotation...that brings back memories. Unfortunately, those were memories I've spent the last two decades repressing.

And remember - Davis is now the pitching coach for the Royals' rookie league team. He won an award for his coaching efforts last season, too. I don't doubt that he does good work, but that's sort of like bringing in Buddy Biancalana as your hitting coach. Or Mark Quinn as your strength & conditioning coach.

Keith Law said...

I love churrasco!

Anonymous said...

Is there any doubt the royals would be better, younger, and less grumpy with Callaspo as the (relatively) full-time DH instead of Guillen? Sadly, I'd say it's about a 5% chance they keep Callaspo over Guillen... which will be followed shortly by Guillen getting injured while/and/or climbing into the stands to fight a heckler. Fun!

Shelby said...

Sadly, I agree with your "the Royals have nothing to lose" sentiment with regard to Farnsworth and Ankiel.

But I think you can say that about any number of semi-off-the-wall potential experiments. Outside of upsetting the sure-bets we have at our #1 and #2 starting positions, our closer, and our Butler, do the Royals have ANYTHING to lose?

Like moving Davies to the bullpen--why not? He's proven he has almost no value as a starter. Callaspo as a 3rd baseman, Dejesus in Center, Butler at DH, Gordon at 1st....would we lose more than 2 or 3 more games if we made any of these changes than we would with the status quo?

Clark said...

P.S. Davies, Hochevar & Tejeda are all out of options, so no flexibility there.

Jeff Parker said...

My intial reaction when I seen this was laughter (oh them crazy Royals) then I remembered they started 2009 with Sidney Ponson and Horacio Ramirez in the rotation and it became a little less funny.

Anonymous said...

Well fans this has been quite a start for this A.L. Central series, Podsednik led off the 5th inning with a hustle single, 2 bagger Mike Aviles rounding into playing shape singled sharply to right on the first pitch, Podsednik moved to third and boy howdy did Mike Aviles jump on that lazy defense moving to second, nothing wrong with his legs, by the way Mike has hit safely in his last 5 games starting to show some power as well, first base open DH Callaspo along with his 3rd in the lead batting average takes his last warmup swing, a red hot hitter Gordon on Deck, May has been good to Gordon now at 7 home runs and 23 RBIs shaking off the injury riddled 09 season, Butler is now coming out of the dugout, 0-0 game this crowd is making some serious noise now...no outs man on second and third... is that a smile from starter Zach Grienke?

jonfmorse said...

Is the Star required to refer to a "[high-]quality start"?

Ben said...

Robinson Tejeda had a .162 BAbip as a starter last year, not gonna happen over a full season as a starter. Do I think the Royals noticed this? Of course not

Jeremy McNeal said...

When was the last season the Royals didn't end up having 7+ different pitchers start games over the course of a season. In a perfect world, Grienke, Meche, Banny, Hoch, Tejada would be your guys. This is not that world. I'd much rather have Farnsworth on the mound than Sidney Ponson or Bruce Chen. Farnsworth at least provides the entertainment value of maybe. I bet Davies (if he isn't in the rotation at the beginning of the season) gets some starts as well.

Also - Quit hating on Farnsworth, everyone. The guy sucked the first two weeks and then did well after that. What manager brings in a Fly Ball Pitcher to pitch to Jim Thome in a small ball park. Hillman should have asked Farnsworth to play chicken with a Rhino, would have been better for everyone.

Steve said...

Anon 8:58, love it, absolutely love it.

Anonymous said...

The word "quality" is a noun meaning "peculiar and essential character". By itself it carries no value. Therefore, to be used correctly, it requires an modifier. High, low, good, bad, poor. You really aren't saying anything without the adjective. The editor of the Star adds the modifier because it was implied in the context of the interview. The quote, out of context, would mean nothing to a reader that is unfamiliar with the tradition in baseball that when you say "quality" you mean "high quality".

Anonymous said...

Rany...I hope you didn't spit out your coffee when you saw Hillman's lineup idea in today's Star.

No Callaspo. No intelligence. Podsednik and Getz at top of lineup. No brains.

Scary what this man is using to work with.

Anonymous said...

I see several posters beat me to the "at least Farnsworth makes more sense than Ponson/H Ramirez/Chen" meme.

Anonymous said...

That lineup was horrible.
They will not average more than 1 run a game with that lineup.
I feel confidence about the pitching. I think the Farnsworth trial is a plausible idea given the circumstances.
Anyone even considering that lineup should not be allowed near a field.
Does anyone involved realize that defense and offense are not mutually exclusive?

SagehenMcGyver47 said...

Anon 8:39 - you've defined "quality" as a noun. In the quote cited it is being used as an adjective, in which case "quality" is defined as "having a high degree of excellence" or "being of high quality".

Mark said...

Maybe I'm giving the Royals too much credit, but I liked the idea of when I heard Farnsworth being tried out as a Starter. First, it might challenge him as a pitcher. More importantly, it's putting a little more pressure on Hoch and Davies to stop sucking and reach their potential. Neither one has a starting job locked up and might have to actually EARN their starting spot. But...like I started with, I'm sure I'm giving the Royals too much credit.

Anonymous said...

Send Hillman and Dayton Moore to the guillotine! SAVE THE ROYALS! OFF WITH THEIR HEADS!

Juancho said...

(breaks into "Ça irá" while madly dancing the Carmagnole and anxiously awaiting the arrival of the tumbrils)

Anonymous said...

Assume both Farnsworth and Tejeda make good impressions in spring training. The problem that arises is that neither will be able to pitch a significant amount of innings this year. So maybe they plan on switching between the two from time to time? At the break? Or maybe they'll run Farns out for the 245 pitch complete game and land him on the DL.

PJM said...

"And remember - Davis is now the pitching coach for the Royals' rookie league team. He won an award for his coaching efforts last season, too. I don't doubt that he does good work, but that's sort of like bringing in Buddy Biancalana as your hitting coach. Or Mark Quinn as your strength & conditioning coach."

With the exception that Mark Davis, even if for just one year, was a Cy Young winner.

But hey, no big deal, Charley Lau did have a career average of .255, so brining him in as a hitting coach...must've been the greatest move as naming a hitting coach in the history of whatever.

Anyway, I digress, but finally a post that doesn't come off completely like a jilted lover.

Anonymous said...

Actually, Davis had two pretty amazing years back to back before joining the Royals.

Sadly, they were the only two amazing years he had in baseball.

David said...

The [high-] quality of mercy is not strained . . .

Jason Dixon said...

"Making a reliever a starter because he sucks in relief is like moving a third baseman to shortstop because he couldn’t handle playing the hot corner." Great line, Rany.

Last year's team scored 686. I see that going down. They'll give up fewer, as well, but I don't think the run differential will improve much, and neither will their record. 60-70 wins.

Eric said...

I am so tired of hearing about the Chone projection for the Royals rotation. It is obviously skewed by an exceptionally high number for Greinke and some optimistic numbers for guys who finished the year on the DL. Really, if there was ever a projection that was iffy, this is it.

Anonymous said...

On the bright side, this opens up the possibility of some comedic relief. Great playwrights understood the need for an element of comedic relief in a tragic drama, and Trey is obviously a modern-day Billy Shakespeare, giving us 3 1/3 innings of gut-busting Farnsy every fifth day.

Incidentally, this is why I have such a hard time accepting the loss of Olivo. Not only was he a lottery card that just might turn in a 2 run homer (an offensive explosion of sorts), when he didn't connect, his plate appearances were always good for a giggle. The inevitable swinging strike on every first pitch bounced 10 feet in front of the plate brought me joyous laughter, and will be sorely missed.

Jordan said...

...or maybe this transformation into a starter is only a trial run for a much bigger move: attempting to get Ankiel back into the rotation. At this point (and a slew of cf's) nothing surprises me.

Justin said...

Rany, I'm just surprised they can type at the kustar.

Shelby said...

Ahh, another bigot.

Congratulations on proving you're less intellectually developed than most of us, Justin.

Anonymous said...

Jordan, I think you were half-joking, but just so you know, there's no way Ankiel will be pitching. He's said several times that he's done with pitching and will never pitch again. If the Royals tried to make him pitch, he would probably ask for his release.

tookee said...

Always looking for your comments, Rany. I am dubious that the questions presented to the team will be answered with any definition, since DM has created much of the puzzlers himself. I will say that the Royals openness to approaching some of these problems is at least refreshing given their long history of intractability.

Anonymous said...

Rany,

I personally think you’re the best at analyzing our Kansas City Royals. None better, paid or non paid. You mix modern stats with a true fans perspective. Minors, prospects, other teams, you really make my job as a fan much more fun.

I really hit rock bottom last year as the organization plodded along month after month.

Me thinks others are feeling the way I do about this season. I’ve no clue why, but adding up the parts feel this team is better than any over the last 10 years. Can’t put my finger on any good reason, just think they are fielding a better team position by position.

In risking a trip to a mental health center by claiming the Spoils will win the title, could you write a realistic article lining out a scenario the Royals could win the A.L. Central? We know Glass is not going to make any giant moves, but any player moves you think could be made can be used.

Anonymous said...

Rany,

Have you heard the latest podcast on Fangraphs? They pretty much recant your articles on pitching stress/pitch count. Borderline plagiarism.

RealDirty said...

The Farnsworth was a mistake for the Royals, just like: Jacobs, Cruz, Betancourt, and Jose Guillen. Good front offices tend to make less mistakes and hopefully Dayton has learned something from these acquisitions. I agree with Rany, in isolation...it's a fine idea to give Farnsworth a shot at the rotation (especially considering what little return that have gotten on signing him thus far), in reality he should not be taking away a spot from someone like Tejeda.
I started a poll on my blog to see what fans think of the Royals comments of Farnsworth this spring. Check it out if you like:

http://realdirtyblue.blogspot.com/

Or not

Anonymous said...

Will Hillman ever get fired or does he have a lifetime contract like Dayton does?

Anonymous said...

For what its worth (which is essentially nothing), Farnsworth was amazing to watch as a starter for the High-A Daytona Cubs. The performance might not translate, but he certainly seemed comfortable taking a turn in the rotation and as strong in the 7th as he was in the 1st.

RealDirty said...

I wouldn't worry so much about Farnsworth's stamina as a starter...much more worried about his stuff.

Anonymous said...

The latest Sports Buddaye episode is on the Royals, live from surprise:

http://www.lawrence.com/weblogs/sportsbuddaye/2010/feb/26/sports-buddaye-25-live-from-surprise/

pretty funny

Chris said...

When I saw the title I was hoping it was Steve Busby pitching. I'd take him at his age over Farnsworth.

steak said...

More, please.

scott said...

Rany,

There was a sentence in your latest post that needs to be the subject of a full posting: What happened to the Royals after Ewing died? I believe the travails can be traced to Mike Hermann's era of rule. Specifically, and most harmful in my opinion, was his ridiculous decision to eschew the move to the Nat. League, where we could have enjoyed an annual boatload of games against the Cards and the Cubs. This would have generated revenue (both in gate receipts and TV/Radio) and would have jacked up the fan base expoetianlly. But, alas, Hermann waved off this golden parachute of an overture and we are still paying the price.

Scott

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