Royals Today: 4/5/11.

The Royals began the 2000 season with a respectable 4-3 record, and then things got crazy. In the last game of a four-game set with the Twins, the Royals held a 5-3 lead going into the ninth. This was back in the days when the Royals thought that closers were born, not made, and so they had paid real U.S. legal tender to Ricky Bottalico to be their closer. On this day, naturally, Bottalico blew the two-run lead in the ninth. (The Royals learned their lesson so well that after the season, they made Roberto Hernandez the focal point of the trade return they got for Johnny Damon.)

But then something funny happened. Damon led off the bottom of the ninth with a home run, and the Royals won, 6-5. The next night, the Orioles came to town; the Royals erased a 5-2 lead with three runs in the eighth, and after both teams struggled to score a putaway run, the Royals finally broke through in the bottom of the 12th, when with one out and Joe Randa on first base, backup catcher Brian Johnson went deep.

And then the next night, the Orioles held a 6-0 lead going into the bottom of the seventh, when the Royals broke through for four runs. The score remained 6-4 until the bottom of the ninth, when Gregg Zaun walked, Mark Quinn doubled to put two runners in scoring position…and Rey Sanchez lofted a flyball that snuck inside the fair pole in left field, prompting Denny Mathews to semi-famously exclaim “What is going on?” The Royals had won three straight games on a walk-off homer. In fact, these three games – I’m not making this up – are what brought the phrase “walk-off” into the national baseball lexicon. The term had been around for years – Dennis Eckersley originated it, I believe, calling it “a walk-off piece” when Kirk Gibson hit a particular home run off of him – but after these three games, ESPN.com started using the term to describe what the Royals had done, and the term has been with us ever since.

The next night, after Bottalico blew another save in the ninth, the Royals didn’t end it with a homer. No, with two out and one on in the bottom of the inning, Carlos Beltran ended the game with a lousy single. Four straight walk-off wins, three on a homer, and the Royals were 8-3 and tied for first place. They were the talk of baseball as they headed out on a nine-game road trip.

They lost all nine games.

They would eventually recover enough to finish with a respectable 77-85 record, but they fell 10.5 games back of the White Sox by June 18, and their deficit was in double digits the rest of the season. Which is to say, it was a pretty typical Royals campaign.

By all means, enjoy the series win against the Angels. Just don’t imbue it with undue meaning. Maybe it’s best Alex Gordon’s slice went foul on Opening Day, because if it hadn’t, the Royals would have swept a series against the Angels with three walk-off homers and a two-run rally in the eighth inning, and far too many people would be putting far too much emphasis on the first one-fortieth of the season.

Winning three games in the fashion that the Royals did might be the sign of a plucky team, a gritty team, a never-say-die team. But it’s not the sign of a great team. The discerning mark of a great team isn’t winning games in its final at-bat – it’s bludgeoning the opponents so that the outcome of the game isn’t in doubt by the time their final at-bat comes around. If the Royals had won these games by the score of 10-3, 7-0, and 12-2, we might want to consider recalibrating our opinion of the Royals a little. But the way they won these games says less about the Royals than it does about the Angels.

As I said before the season on our podcast (please listen!) – while making the case for the Angels as (ahem) my pick to win the AL West – the worry for the Angels was that their bullpen had one quality reliever in Jordan Walden. Walden was dominant in the series; the other Angel relievers would have fit right in with the Royals’ bullpen from a decade ago. The Angels led three of the four games in the middle of the eighth, and were tied in the fourth game – and they came within a few feet of getting swept.

Right now, the Royals are pretty much what we thought they were – a team capable of keeping games close, a team that might have a really good bullpen, but not a team that’s going to win the AL Central.

That doesn’t mean we can’t enjoy the fact that we’re leading the AL Central at the moment. Let’s just keep some perspective.

- Speaking of Alex Gordon…I tried my best to remain philosophical after his drive for a walk-off homer on Opening Day went just foul, capping an 0-for-5, three-strikeout game that already had people writing off his performance in Arizona as another spring tease.

I didn’t want to place any great meaning on that one at-bat either way, because let’s face it, there have been moments in the past when Gordon hit dramatic home runs that made you want to think he was finally ready to bust out…and nothing happened. Last year, on April 21, Gordon hit a two-out game-winning home run off a left-hander in the tenth inning in Toronto. He was so affected by this that he went 4 for his next 21, and was then optioned to Omaha.

On July 30, you might recall – I actually called his shot on Twitter, and was the most surprised person in the ballpark when he actually hit it – Gordon went deep in the exact same situation he found himself in this Opening Day – two on, two out in the ninth and the Royals losing. Over his next eight games, he hit .292 and hit three more homers, and you thought maybe, just maybe, this was the Gordon in the catalog. He then hit .215/.324/.323 the rest of the season, with just three more homers in 47 games.

If Gordon is going to fulfill even a fraction of his potential at this late date, it’s not going to happen with one swing, or one series, or even a month of series. It’s going to happen the way life does: one day at a time. After his Opening Day fiasco, he went 6-for-14, and notably with only one strikeout. I’m not a scout, but one swing in particular stood out – his third hit of the game on Sunday. With two strikes on him and facing a left-hander, Gordon took a pitch on the outer half of the plate and didn’t try to pull it, but went with the pitch and sent a two-hopper through the infield up the middle.

Ryan Lefebvre and Frank White made note of the fact that Gordon’s swing was “all hands” – there was very little weight shift in his swing, a swing that was more befitting of Ichiro Suzuki than Jim Thome. I’m not saying it was better or worse – but it was certainly different than the Alex Gordon we’ve grown to have a love-hate relationship with. At this point, I’ll take different. It might be months before we can render a final verdict.

- This means nothing, but I don’t get a chance to say this very often, so humor me: the Royals lead the American League in walks drawn, with 19. Of course, they are also one of only two teams that have played four games, but still: humor me.

Ten of those 19 walks came on Sunday, and eight of those ten came from the ninth inning on. On Opening Day, four of the Royals’ six walks came in the eighth or ninth inning. Which, again, is to say that it’s not clear whether all those walks are a reflection of the Royals’ new-found patience or simply a reflection that the Angels’ bullpen sucks.

- I didn’t really expect the Royals to come back, not down two runs headed into the bottom of the ninth on Sunday. That said, having Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, and Kila Ka’aihue due up to start the inning was as good a trio as we’ve seen in a very long time. It’s not simply the caliber of hitter that each one is, but the fact that all three of them are perfectly willing to take a walk to get a rally started.

One of the more maddening aspects of being a Royals fan the last, oh, 20 years or so is that the offense has never been built to take advantage of a closer with command issues. On this day, though, when Fernando Rodney could not find the strike zone, the Royals were more than happy to take advantage. Gordon walked on five pitches. Butler hit a screaming line drive – easily the best-hit ball of the inning – that Maicer Izturis snared with a vertical leap that would have stood out at a scouting combine. Ka’aihue walked on five pitches. Jeff Francoeur walked on five pitches – again, maybe we should be blaming the Angels instead of crediting the Royals.

And then Wilson Betemit, who’s not a free swinger by any means, swung away on the first pitch. After a pitcher has issued multiple walks, it’s not uncommon for him to groove a fastball on the first pitch just to try to get something over, so with the tying run in scoring position, this was a reasonable gamble for a hitter who knows the strike zone. It worked when the ball snuck under Vernon Wells glove for the game-tying double.

It was the second time in the series that Rodney couldn’t find the strike zone, and (for you fantasy players) he’s probably going to lose the closer’s job to Walden by Memorial Day. More than anyone else, he instigated the comeback – but the Royals didn’t turn their noses down at his favor. One of the reasons I’m not down on the 2011 Royals as much as some other people is precisely because the heart of the Royals’ order features three guys who are more than happy to draw walks and let one of their teammates be the hero. Two years ago, the 3-4-5 hitters on any given night might have been Jose Guillen, Mike Jacobs, and Miguel Olivo. If they had stepped in against Rodney on Sunday, the rally might never have gotten started.

- It’s hard to make a judgment about a starting pitcher from just one start, and we didn’t see anything truly surprising in the first spin of the rotation.

Luke Hochevar pitched pretty well on Opening Day, but as usual the results were a little less than you’d expect. He threw strikes (no walks, 5 K’s), and kept the ball down (13 groundball outs), but still gave up two homers – including one to Jeff Mathis – and made a dumb throwing error on a beautiful bunt by Peter Bourjos that directly set up the Angels’ final run.

Kyle Davies, as usual, was passable but not effective (4 runs in 5.1 innings, seven hits and two walks). Bruce Chen was terrible, but there were some extenuating circumstances there – the wind was gusting up to 40 mph, to the point where the Royals had to move their TV cameras out of their usual perch in center field. The environment was tough for any pitcher, but you couldn’t pick a pitcher less suited for a day like Sunday than Chen, one of the most extreme flyball pitchers in baseball. I’d give him a mulligan for that.

The pleasant surprise was Jeff Francis, who came into the season with some major questions about his shoulder and his fastball velocity. His shoulder was sturdy enough for him to throw seven outstanding innings, but his velocity has to be a concern. According to Fangraphs, his fastball averaged just 84.8 mph on Friday – he was at 87.2 mph last year, and has never averaged less than 86 mph in a season. His curveball and changeup were also a couple mph below their career norms. It’s just one start, and it might be a park error – last year, fastball readings at Kauffman Stadium were artificially inflated by 1-2 mph. But it bears watching closely.

- Two words: Tim Collins. Three letters and a punctuation mark: OMG!

Seriously, I knew Seabiscuit was going to be good. I just didn’t know he was going to be this good. And I knew he was going to be fun to watch. But I had no idea he’d be so much fun to watch.

I say this with all seriousness: if you don’t love watching Collins throw 92-93 mph from a 5’6” frame, with a wacky delivery that hides the ball so well you’d think he’s throwing from behind a screen, mixing in big-breaking curveballs and a changeup that just disappears – well, you don’t love baseball, my friend. Or America. Or apple pie, you stupid Commie.

Oh, and on Sunday Collins became the first Royal since 2007 to throw at least three innings in relief, with no walks and at least five strikeouts. Not bad for the second appearance of his career. The last Royal reliever to make such an impression on me after just two appearances in the majors was Joakim Soria.

- Speaking of relievers…I still don’t like what the Royals are doing with Aaron Crow, in large part because I’m not sure what they’re doing with Crow. Is he a reliever for good? Is he a candidate to step into the rotation later this year? Next year?

But it would be foolish of me to not acknowledge that he’s looked pretty damn impressive so far. In particular, that slider is just…I’m not sure it’s illegal, but it’s definitely immoral. Crow has faced seven right-handed batters so far. One walked, and another managed to ground out to the shortstop. The other five struck out, including Howie Kendrick, the first batter Crow faced in the majors, with a runner in scoring position, and Torii Hunter twice, once with the bases loaded and one out.

It’s that very dominance which makes me wonder if the Royals aren’t leaving value on the table by moving him to the bullpen. But for now, I’ll concede that he makes the Royals a better team. Starting Crow in the major leagues despite no history of success in the minors was very much a scout-based decision by the Royals. If we’ve learned one thing in the past year, it’s that when it comes to minor leaguers, the Royals do know a thing or two about scouting.

- Are the Royals trying to make Jarrod Dyson into the new Herb Washington? That’s not the worst idea in the world, honestly – he pinch-ran for Brayan Pena after Pena singled in the eighth inning on Sunday, and three pitches later he was standing at third base. He’s appeared in three of the four games – all three times as a pinch-runner, staying in to play defense on one occasion. I’m just curious to see how many games he’ll appear in before he gets his first at-bat.

(Incidentally, despite stealing second and third base with one out, Dyson was stranded and did not score. The Royals have nine steals in 10 attempts – but not one of those nine steals led to a run that wouldn’t have scored anyway. The only benefit they’ve gotten from their running game is that two of the stolen bases may have kept the Royals out of a double play. Stolen bases are nice, but they remain vastly overrated by the Royals.)

- The defense, in general, looks a lot better. Alcides Escobar hasn’t hit worth a damn yet, but he’s made several plays on balls that Yuniesky Betancourt would have waved at like they’re his next-door neighbor. Francoeur nailed a runner at the plate. This still isn’t a great defense, but at least they’re not the embarrassment to baseball that they’ve been in recent years.

Chris Getz has made some fine plays and executed the perfect relay throw that nailed Alberto Callaspo at the plate on Sunday. (Callaspo failed to score from second on a double, which isn’t as bizarre as it sounds. For one, he had to hold up to see if the ball would be caught. For two, the ball ricocheted off the wall directly into Melky Cabrera’s bare hand, allowing him to make a quick throw in. And for three, as we all remember, Callaspo moves so slowly that Bud Selig just appointed him to a committee.)

- This entire series was a vindication of a lot of head-scratching moves the Royals made with their roster. Crow pitched great. Matt Freaking Treanor had a walk-off homer and a game-tying RBI single with two outs in the eighth. Treanor also made two separate plays at the plate, conceding nothing to two baserunners who were barreling in on him but were dead to rights.

Which just goes to show: anything can happen in four games. I’m not saying you should ignore how well the Royals have played so far; on the contrary, this is one of the more likeable rosters the Royals have had in years, and there’s a lot to be excited about for the future. But there’s a difference between “likeable” and “good”. I fully expect the Royals to bridge the gap between those two by the end of the year. Just don’t expect every series between now and then to go as well as this one did.

Not A Prediction.

Just to be clear: I am not predicting any miracles for the Royals this season. I’ll save my playoff predictions for sometime down the road, maybe even next year. But you’d have to be crazy to predict that the Royals will win the AL Central in 2011. So I’m not predicting that. I’m predicting that they’ll go 69-93, and even that is overly optimistic for most people, to suggest that the Royals will have a better record than they had last season, after they traded their best position player and best pitcher in the off-season.

I’m not predicting that Luke Hochevar is going to prove his doubters wrong by giving the Royals 200 innings with an ERA in the mid-3s. I mean, sure, it could happen. Hochevar was the #1 overall pick in the draft for a reason. He has four good pitches, and has just lacked the confidence in his stuff to put batters away in the past. And last season, he quietly put up some good peripherals – he had more than twice as many strikeouts (76) as walks (37), and surrendered just 9 homers in 110 innings. After Ned Yost gave him a public vote of confidence on May 15th, Hochevar had a 4.05 ERA in his remaining 10 appearances. I wouldn’t predict that he will have a season out of the Derek Lowe Collection, but if he maintains his confidence and his health this season, he certainly could.

I also wouldn’t predict Kyle Davies to take a step forward. Davies is sort of an older version of Hochevar, with less time left to fulfill his potential – another guy whose stuff grades out as above-average, but for whatever reason has never converted his stuff into results. Davies’ wife just had their first child, and maybe that will refocus his priorities for the better – it certainly worked out for a lot of Royals last year. Davies is 27 this year, in his final year before free agency – the same age and situation another underachiever named Gil Meche was in when he started to turn his career around in 2006. It would be foolish to predict such a thing, but sure, it’s possible that Davies could lop a run off his 5.49 ERA this season, and give the Royals 32 league-average starts.

I also wouldn’t expect Bruce Chen to repeat the kind of season he had in 2010. Chen had a 4.17 ERA last season, even though he had a higher walk rate and a lower strikeout rate than he did in 2009, when his ERA was 5.78. So sure, Chen was awfully lucky last year. I don’t expect that luck to hold. I mean sure, it could, or it’s possible that he could throw a few more strikes this year or find the smoke and mirrors that crafty lefties often do in their mid-30s. I’m certainly not counting on Chen to give the Royals a steady stream of 6-inning, 3-run outings all season and give them a chance to win every time out. It could happen, though.

I also would not expect Jeff Francis to stay healthy and prove his shoulder and stuff are back to 100%, but it could happen. In 2006 and 2007, before his arm started to bark, Francis averaged 207 innings with a 4.19 ERA – pitching in Coors Field. The odds are against him coming close to those totals this season, of course. But if he does, he’ll be a more than adequate starting pitcher.

Maybe Vinny Mazzaro will figure out how to make his sinker sink in the major leagues. It didn’t sink last year, but he was only 23 years old, and he managed a 4.27 ERA anyway. I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for it to happen, mind you, but pitching coach Bob McClure has worked his magic before; maybe he’ll do so again.

And maybe it won’t matter if one or two of the Royals’ starting pitchers blow up, if some of the most-advanced pitchers in The Greatest Farm System In The History Of Whatever are ready to step in by June or July. Sure, it’s unlikely that they’ll make an immediate impact, but Mike Montgomery is starting the year in Triple-A, and Danny Duffy might join him shortly. John Lamb and Chris Dwyer are both just a half-dozen good starts in Double-A away from joining them. It’s possible that one or two of them could step into the rotation sometime around Flag Day and find immediate success, making 20 starts with an above-average ERA.

Just to pick a few southpaws at random, Cole Hamels did it for the Phillies in 2006, and Barry Zito did the same thing for Oakland in 2000. Hell, Zack Duke came up for the freaking Pirates in 2005 and fashioned a 1.81 ERA in 14 starts. Pitching prospects sometimes dominate the league their first time through, before word gets around on how to hit this guy. The odds are slim to none that the Royals make a rotation makeover at mid-season and storm down the stretch with five above-average starters. But the potential is certainly there.

The bullpen, despite its inexperience – three of the seven relievers on the Opening Day roster are making their major-league debuts, and Jeremy Jeffress has thrown just 10 innings in the majors – could be one of the best bullpens in baseball. I mean, Jeffress throws in the upper 90s with a big-breaking curveball, and if he throws strikes, look out. Aaron Crow has the stuff of a first-round pick as a starter, and working in relief his stuff should be even better. Tim Collins is 5 feet 5 inches of pure awesomeness. All three of those guys could strike out better than a man an inning this season, and they’re just setting up Robinson Tejeda and Joakim Soria. Batters have hit just .194 against Tejeda since he joined the Royals. Soria is the second-best closer in baseball, and is in waiting to inherit the crown from Mariano Rivera.

Even the mop-up guys like Kanekoa Texeira and Nate Adcock have talent, and the Royals have a couple of lefties, guys like Blaine Hardy and Everett Teaford, who could bolster the bullpen by mid-season. Maybe Duffy or Dwyer gets brought up to pitch relief and air out their fastballs into the mid-to-upper 90s. It’s doubtful that everything would go right, naturally. But the talent is here for this to be the deepest Royals bullpen we’ve ever seen.

Mind you, even if the pitching staff doesn’t live up to these lofty dreams, it might not matter if the offense goes nuts. If it does, leading that charge will probably be Alex Gordon. Gordon probably won’t be an All-Star caliber hitter this year, but he has more of a chance than most guys who hit .215/.315/.355 last season. It’s not just that Gordon crushed the ball in spring training, although he did – .343/.459/.729 are pretty damn good numbers, thin air in Arizona or not. Hitting in Arizona is nothing new for Gordon; two years ago he hit .320/.400/.653 in spring training. The difference is that, after a winter of relentlessly working on his swing with Kevin Seitzer, Gordon has a new approach at the plate. Even casual fans have remarked that his swing looks different. The talent has always been there; you don’t win College Player of the Year and Minor League Player of the Year honors in back-to-back years without it. If his new swing unlocks that talent, look out. I’m not saying it will happen, naturally. But it wouldn’t be a shock to anyone if he hit .280/.370/.520 this season.

Gordon’s wingman in Omaha much of last season, Kila Ka’aihue, could also have a breakout season. No one really knows what to expect from Ka’aihue. Maybe the doubters are right; he did hit just .252/.392/.433 in Omaha in 2009, and after he was called up last season, he hit just .167/.239/.274 in August. But maybe they’re wrong, and maybe his bat speed really can go from “slider” to “fastball” with the flick of his wrists. He did hit .314/.456/.628 in 2008, after all, and .319/.463/.598 in Omaha last season, and in Kansas City in September, after the nerves had worn off, he hit .261/.367/.511. That last slash line seems like a reasonable approximation of what he could do. If he does – granted, it’s a long-shot – but if he does, he’d be the best DH the Royals have had since, I dunno, Chili Davis?

In reality, the DH role will probably fall more on Billy Butler, and if Butler builds upon what he has done the last two seasons, the Royals could have a truly formidable middle of the lineup. Granted, I don’t think Butler is going to double his home run total from last season – while I think he’s going to hit for more power over time, I think it’s going to be a gradual process as he learns to elevate the ball. But it’s possible that, after hitting 96 doubles over the last two seasons, some of those two-baggers start clearing the fence, and Butler hits 30 homers to go along with his .310 average. If Butler starts hitting more balls in the air, he would presumably also cut back on his double-play grounders, and his walk rate might climb as pitchers become even more reluctant to pitch to him.

Admittedly, it’s unlikely to happen. But would you really be that surprised if either Gordon, or Ka’aihue, or Butler hit 30 home runs? Or if any of them walked 90 times? Only once in Royals history (in 1985, ahem) have two different Royals hit 30 homers in a season, and no Royal has drawn 90 walks since 1989. The odds that either of those things happen this year is small; the odds that they both do are infinitesimal. But it could happen.

Speaking of “infinitesimal”, we shouldn’t completely discount the chance that Jeff Francoeur finds his swing this season. Yes, yes, I know, to even suggest that Francoeur won’t be one of the worst everyday players in baseball is grounds to be brought in front of the Sabermetric Tribunal for an inquisition. But bear with me here. Francoeur is, still, just 27 years old (one month older than Gordon, and two months older than Ka’aihue.) From 2005 to 2007, when Francoeur was 21-23 years old, he hit .280/.319/.463 in the major leagues. Is it that unlikely that, at the age of 27 – the most common peak year for hitters – he might simply replicate his performance from his early 20s? Seitzer has spent almost as much time with Francoeur’s swing as he has with Gordon’s. Certainly, it’s a shot in the dark to hope that Francoeur gives the Royals a .280/.320/.460 line along with durability and good defense in right field. But it’s not outside the realm of possibility.

Somewhat lost in the shuffle this spring training has been the Royals’ new shortstop, Alcides Escobar, even though Escobar hit .364/.400/.636 this spring and even popped five homers in 55 at-bats. Escobar was acquired for his defense, as everyone agrees that he’s a plus shortstop with borderline Gold Glove potential. But it’s premature to dismiss him as simply a glove-only shortstop. Escobar hit .328 in Double-A in 2008, .298 in Triple-A in 2009, and finished the 2009 season by hitting .304 in 38 games for the Brewers. He also stole 80 bases combined in those two seasons. Yes, he hit just .235 last year, with just four homers and 14 doubles, and only 36 walks. There’s a reason the Brewers were willing to part with him, after all. But he’s only 24 years old, and the offensive upside is still there. I wouldn’t bet on him hitting .290 for the Royals this season to go along with his speed and defense, but if he does, he’ll be one of the better shortstops in the league.

I wouldn’t bet on Chris Getz hitting much of anything this year, but I don’t have to, because if he’s not hitting by June, he’ll get run over by the Mike Moustakas steamroller. Now, it’s not reasonable to expect a rookie – even a top prospect like Moustakas – to be an impact hitter in the majors right from the get-go. But it could certainly happen. Moustakas hit .322/.369/.630 in the minors last year, with 36 homers and 41 doubles in just 118 games. After struggling in his first month in Triple-A, he crushed the ball in August and finished with a .293/.314/.564 line in Omaha. Another two months in the minors will only help him polish his plate discipline and his approach against lefties a little. Four years ago, another hard-hitting, free-swinging third base prospect named Ryan Braun started the year in Triple-A, and after 34 games (and a .701 slugging average) debuted for Milwaukee in late May. Braun crushed the ball so much – he actually led the NL in slugging as a rookie – that he won Rookie of the Year honors despite playing in just 113 games. I’m not saying that Mike Moustakas will have that kind of impact. But he could.

When Moustakas arrives, Mike Aviles can slide over to second base, where he played most of last season. Aviles has only had two healthy seasons in the major leagues, but he hit over .300 in each season, with a little pop in his bat as well. He’s already 30 and you can’t expect him to get better; on the other hand, he came back early from Tommy John surgery last year, and his arm only reached full strength in September, a month in which he hit six of his eight homers and slugged .568. It’s a stretch to think that he’ll hit that well again, or even that he can duplicate his rookie line of .325/.354/.480. But stranger things have happened.

In center field, the Royals are starting the year with Melky Cabrera, who led the Cactus League with a .468 batting average. Cabrera was awful for the Braves last year, but he did hit .274/.336/.416 with 13 homers as the starting centerfielder for the World Champion Yankees in 2009. If he doesn’t approach that line, Lorenzo Cain is just a phone call away. That leaves only catcher, where…well…maybe Brayan Pena will be allowed to bat 400 times, or maybe Jason Kendall slugs .330 with a healthy shoulder. I admit, this might be the biggest leap of faith of them all.

Look, I’m not saying that the Royals are going to win the AL Central, not when Baseball Prospectus puts their odds of making the playoffs at around 1 in 250. I mean, sure, VCU just made it to the Final Four, even though their odds of doing so before March Madness started were somewhere between 1 in 800 (according to Nate Silver) and 1 in 3000 (according to Ken Pomeroy). But it's still a remote possibility, the kind of possibility that you can only dream about on Opening Day.

I’m not saying that the Royals are going to shock the world this season. I’m just saying it could happen. And, you know, it wouldn’t suck if it did.

1985.

This is either one of the best things I’ve ever done, or one of the worst. Hopefully it’s not one of the worst. With enormous thanks to the incomparable Rich Banks, who turned my lyrics into magic, and with apologies to the Royals, Bowling For Soup, and anyone who appreciates fine music, I present to you…1985.

(Click to play. Lyrics, and links for the uninitiated, below.)

1985 by rjazayerli

Ambres just let it fall

He never caught the ball

Just one out to go

Nineteen losses in a row

Our dreams went out the door

After 1994

Only had one good year

When our future seemed so clear

Affeldt was another Koufax

Berroa was gonna be a star

Lima Time could kick some ass

MacDougal threw really hard

Turns out 2003

Was an anomaly

Look at our crappy team

And it’s all been a bad dream

Since Hal McRae, and George Brett

Way before the sun set

There was Frank White, Balboni

No outfield throws nailed Ken Harvey

Fans of teams with big bucks

They tell us that our team sucks

But we’re still preoccupied…with 19, 19, 1985

1985

We had a great rotation

Jackson and Leibrandt

Gubicza, Saberhagen, and even Buddy Black

We loved Dick Howser

Not a better manager

No one ever got a lead

Off Dan Quisenberry

Where’s our shortstop on David Letterman

And why’s our Opening Day starter Scott Elarton

Why is Zack Greinke in Milwaukee

Whatever happened to – Dane Iorg, Sundberg, and Don Denkinger

Hal McRae, and George Brett

Way before the sun set

There was Frank White, and Motley

And no one traded for Neifi

Fans of teams with big bucks

They tell us that our team sucks

We’ve had to swallow our pride…since 19, 19, 1985

We’re fed up

With last place

Why did Schuerholz leave for the Atlanta Braves (Atlanta Braves)

And why did Pena get a subpoena

Please make this stop, stop, stop

And bring back

McRae, and George Brett

Way before the sun set

There was Frank White, and Willie

And no Eduardo Villacis

Fans of teams with big bucks

They tell us that our team sucks

DeJesus didn’t break out in hives…in 1985

Hal McRae, and George Brett

Way before the sun set

There was Frank White, and Lonnie

And no Eduardo Villacis

Fans of teams with big bucks

They tell us that our team sucks

But we’re still preoccupied…with 19, 19, 1985

(All rights reserved, with one exception. Not only do I give the Royals permission to play this song at Kauffman Stadium, but if they do so during a game, I will pledge $100 to a charity of their choice. And if a player uses this as his walk-up music, I’ll donate $100 to a charity of his choice as well.)

Royals Roster Breakdown - The Hitters.

Moving to the offense…

Catchers

While we hold our breath for Jason Kendall’s return, it looks like, as expected, Brayan Pena will be getting the lion’s share of the duties, with Lucas May as his caddy.

Once thought to be out until June, Kendall rehabbed so vigorously that for a time it was thought he might be back by Opening Day, although that quickly proved overly optimistic. He’s had a “minor” setback which will probably keep him out until May 1st at the earliest. Reading about Kendall’s incessant injury updates in the Kansas City Star reminds me of a typical Mike Sweeney injury, where he was always about two weeks away from coming back. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kendall is out for longer than he’s letting on.

This might sound crazy, given that the decision to sign Jason Kendall and release John Buck is the  most inexplicable decision of Dayton Moore’s career, but I’m just not that concerned about Kendall’s eventual return date. That’s partly a reflection on the fact that I’m far from sold on Lucas May’s bat. He’s 26 years old, and took advantage of a great hitters’ park in Albuquerque to put up most of his numbers last year. I assume that Kendall would take May’s roster spot instead of Pena’s, owing to the fact that Pena is a switch-hitter. Moreover, even when Kendall returns I doubt we’ll see a return to his Iron Man ways of old. He’ll probably split the job 50/50 with Pena. Basically, I think we’re going to get 300-400 plate appearances out of Pena this year, and with any luck we’ll find out, once and for all, whether the kid can play or not.

Mostly, though, my lack of concern stems from the fact that 2011 is just a holding pattern anyway. Ned Yost values catcher defense like the former backup catcher that he is, and it just so happens that the Royals have a potential Gold Glove catcher who might also hit a little. By mid-2012, this is Salvador Perez’s job, and everyone else is just fighting for the job of carrying his jock.

Update: I wrote the above words last night, and woke up this morning to find out that the Royals had just bought the rights to Matt Treanor from the Rangers. I shouldn’t be surprised; every year the Royals make a pointless and probably counterproductive acquisition in the waning days of spring training. Last year, it was Luis Mendoza; in 2007, it was Tony Pena Jr. At least Treanor only cost money.

That the Royals thought they needed Treanor is disconcerting. Treanor was actually signed by the Royals out of college back in 1994, then was sent to Florida in 1998 for the unforgettable Matt Whisenant. He wouldn’t make the majors for six more years, in 2004, and credit to him for sticking it out long enough to gain admission into The International Brotherhood of Backup Catchers at the age of 28. He spent four years as the backup in Florida, then resurfaced with the Rangers last year. Along the way, he got married to beach volleyball star and two-time Olympic gold medalist Misty May, and good for him. He’s also 35 years old, and his career line is .227/.311/.310. Which is to say, he’s basically Jason Kendall’s doppelganger at this point.

This almost certainly means that Lucas May won’t make the team. As I said above, I was hardly sold on him to begin with, so that doesn’t trouble me greatly. What troubles me is that, unless Kendall is more hurt than the Royals are letting on, Brayan Pena’s roster spot will be very much in jeopardy in a few weeks. I can hardly think of a more ineffectual catching duo than Kendall and Treanor. If there is one, though, I’m sure the Royals will dredge it up soon. Salvador Perez can’t get here soon enough.

Infielders

Four-fifths of the starting infield/DH have been set in stone since the Greinke trade. Billy Butler and Kila Ka’aihue will alternate between 1B and DH, though it sounds like Ka’aihue will probably get more of the reps there. (This is probably a prelude to Butler becoming a full-time DH once Eric Hosmer arrives.) Alcides Escobar will play shortstop everyday. And Mike Aviles will play one of the other two positions.

Which position Aviles plays depends on whether the Royals want to go with their all-hands unit or not. If it’s defense they want, then Chris Getz will man second base and Aviles play will third. If the offense is in a slump, then Wilson Betemit will play third and Aviles will slide over to the keystone. This being the Royals, we are almost certain to see a lot more of the former than of the latter.

The makeup of the Royals’ infield isn’t a surprise – this is pretty much how the Royals drew it up before spring training began – but if you take a step back, it’s really remarkable that the team is starting Chris Getz over Wilson Betemit. Getz hit slugged .277 last year. In 670 career plate appearances – the equivalent of a full season – Getz has hit .252/.315/.320, with 2 homers and 49 walks. He’s undeniably fast (he has 41 steals in 46 attempts) and he’s at least an average defender at second base. But he simply can’t hit. Or at least he hasn’t so far.

Betemit, meanwhile, hit .297/.378/.511 last season, with 20 doubles and 13 homers in just 276 at-bats. As I’ve written before, Betemit had the highest OPS in Royals history for a part-time player. And yet he rides the bench while Getz plays everyday.

I’d blame the Royals for not taking Betemit seriously, but they’re not the only ones. No other team has expressed any interest in Betemit – we know this because the Royals would almost certainly trade him for any return of value. (The Royals gave him a take-it-or-leave-it $1 million offer, and would have released him had he not agreed to the deal.) I realize that Betemit hadn’t hit very well in Omaha before he was called up, and didn’t hit well in the majors in 2008 and 2009, but from 2005 to 2007 he was an above-average hitter for the Braves. And Betemit was just 28 last season – he’s not even two years older than Getz – so there’s plenty of reasons to think that he will continue to hit. Maybe not as well as he did last year, but well enough to deserve playing time.

I understand why the Royals favor Getz. Not only does he upgrade the defense at second base, but he allows Aviles to play a position more suited to his talents at third base. Much as Alberto Callaspo went from god-awful at second base to surprisingly agile at third, I think Aviles might give the Royals average to plus defense at third base. Throw in Escobar, and the Royals might actually have an above-average infield defense for the first time since Angel Berroa was a rookie. And whereas Betemit is a free agent at the end of the year, Getz is under contract for four more seasons.

I just don’t think that all those advantages outweigh the massive offensive difference between the two. The Royals might consider a quasi-platoon, where Aviles move to second base against left-handed starters and Getz moves to the bench, except that Betemit – last year aside – is a much better hitter against right-handed pitching. (He has a career line of .271/.344/.462 against RHP, but just .249/.304/.401 vs. southpaws.)

One way or the other, the Royals need to get Betemit at-bats. He can hit, and if nothing else, they can set him up to be a valuable trade commodity in July. If he gets as many at-bats as he did last season and hits remotely as well, he might even qualify as a Type B free agent. Playing time for Betemit = more draft picks. Hopefully speaking Dayton Moore’s language will get his attention.

The saving grace here is that the Royals do seem committed to Ka’aihue, at least for a few months, depending on whether Eric Hosmer obliterates Triple-A or just lightly carpet-bombs it. He’s crushed the ball in spring training (.415/.483/.849!), he has an everyday job, he has a PECOTA projection (.262/.387/.473) which is the talk of the sabermetric community, and he has something to prove. I drank the Kool-Aid a while ago. Hawaiian Punch, anyone?

Finally, I think it’s fascinating that the Royals appear to be forgoing a backup middle infielder; I thought when spring training began that either Joaquin Arias or Lance Zawadzki would make the team, but they’re both ticketed for Triple-A. This isn’t a bad thing – on the contrary, by going with only one backup infielder, this allows the Royals to carry two backup outfielders, and since Mitch Maier is guaranteed a spot, this means the Royals can carry Gregor Blanco rather than sending him through waivers.

It’s just that you don’t see teams that are willing to go without a backup shortstop very often. I mean, Earl Weaver was fond of saying that “my backup shortstop is in Rochester,” but then, Earl Weaver’s starting shortstop was Cal Ripken. Presumably, Mike Aviles serves as the team’s backup shortstop in addition to his other duties. It’s a little unconventional, but it could work. I just worry that Ned Yost is going to use Alcides Escobar the way Weaver used Ripken: for every inning of every game.

Outfielders

The starters here are no surprise: Alex Gordon in left field, Melky Cabrera in center, Jeff Francoeur in right. Make fun of that arrangement all you want; I know I have. I will say that I’m incredibly excited to see Gordon in live action this week, both because of his ridiculous numbers this month – he’s hitting .365/.487/.746 this spring even after an 0-for-12 start – and because more and more people who have seen him bat swear that his swing looks…different. Shorter to the ball, not selling out for power, willing to go the opposite way. Maybe it’s a mirage, but hell, March is a time for dreaming. Leave my dreams alone – as a Royals fan, they’re all I have.

The big news here – although again, no surprise – is that The Painkiller, Lorenzo Cain, is slated for Omaha. I’m not as broken up about this as most people, and not just because Melky Cabrera has led the Cactus League with a .474 average this spring. I like Cain, and I think he will and should be the Royals starting centerfielder in 2012. But that doesn’t mean he won’t benefit from some finishing time in the minors. While Cain hit well in 43 games for the Brewers last year, he was still an unfinished product – he had just 9 walks against 28 strikeouts. Moreover, Cain has just 28 games in Triple-A in his career. Particularly for a guy who didn’t start playing baseball full-time until late in high school, a guy who is considered by many to have untapped upside because of his lack of experience, I think another half-season in Triple-A won’t hurt him, and might help.

This isn’t even a service-time thing – in order for the Royals to squeeze another year out of Cain’s indentured servitude, he’d have to stay in the minors for three full months. If Cabrera hits well in the first half, that may in fact be the plan, with Cabrera getting auctioned off in July and Cain sliding into his spot. If Cabrera isn’t hitting well, I don’t think the Royals are going to wait until July to make a move. I know it’s frustrating that we keep having to wait just a little longer to see the real fruits of the youth movement, but in this case I think a little patience is warranted.

Mitch Maier is the fourth outfielder, and deservedly so; he can play all three outfield positions with aplomb, hit .263/.333/.375 last season, and even showed a hint of power from time to time. He’ll probably be the first pinch-hitter off the bench, assuming Ned Yost remembers that the rules allow him to remove Escobar or Treanor from the game against a tough right-handed pitcher.

But as I write this, the fifth outfielder’s role, which until now seemed to be in Gregor Blanco’s hands, has apparently been given to Jarrod Dyson instead – and Blanco (who is out of options) has been placed on waivers. If this is true, the Royals just shot themselves in the foot – and then, while hopping around in pain, sent another slug into their good leg.

This is a terrible waste of two players’ talents. Gregor Blanco isn’t a star, and isn’t going to be a star. But he is an outfielder who can run, play defense at all three positions, and has a career .358 OBP in the majors. He’s just 27 years old. He’s an ideal fourth outfielder if nothing else. I’ve been saying since the day he was acquired that it made no sense to have both Blanco and Maier, because they bring such similar skills to bear. But the solution to that problem is to trade one of them, even for a modest return – not to put one of them on waivers three days before Opening Day.

But even if the Royals didn’t have Blanco in the first place, they’re still screwing things up by keeping Jarrod Dyson. Dyson is a really interesting player – as I wrote last year, he’s the rare guy whose defense and athleticism might actually make up for his inability to hit. And in fact, despite the fact that he’s already 26, there is still the chance Dyson might learn to hit if he could just stay healthy enough to get some reps. In five pro seasons, Dyson has played just 305 games. He’s played a total of 70 games in Double-A in his career, and 46 in Triple-A.

He desperately, desperately needs to be playing on an everyday basis. He has the speed to leg out infield singles and beat out bunt hits almost at will, but only if he develops enough line-drive ability and gap power to make defenses respect him. The only way to develop those skills is through repetition. Instead, he’s going to sit on the bench in Kansas City and get four at-bats a week. He’ll make a hell of a defensive replacement for Cabrera in the late innings, and might even get to play Dave Roberts in the ninth inning every once in a while, but unfortunately, that’s probably all he’s ever going to be.

As it stands, the Royals have thrown away Lucas May and Gregor Blanco in exchange for players who aren’t appreciably better, and rushed Jarrod Dyson and Aaron Crow to the majors, all in the last 48 hours. I still believe that Dayton Moore has earned the right to see this farm system through. But those of you who believe that the Royals will never amount to anything under Moore because of his inability to construct a major league roster…well, you just got some more ammunition for your arguments.

Royals Roster Breakdown - The Pitchers.

(Mike Sweeney deserves his own tribute column at some point, but for now, in light of all the Hall of Fame discussion the last few weeks, let’s just say he’s a shoo-in.)

Opening Day is just four days away, and as much as we’d all just like to skip ahead to the five straight AL Central titles that we’ve all been promised, there’s still at least one more season of pain and suffering ahead. The final roster is coming into view, so lets it break it down.

Starting Rotation

There wasn’t supposed to be a whole lot of drama or unresolved questions regarding the rotation, and so far that storyline has played out. Luke Hochevar, as expected, has won the Opening Day job. As expected, he’ll be followed in the rotation by Jeff Francis, Kyle Davies, and Bruce Chen, as the Royals alternate right-handers and left-handers in the rotation order.

The one question going into spring training was whether Vinny Mazzaro or Sean O’Sullivan would win the fifth starter’s role. Italy defeated Ireland, as Mazzaro will be the fifth starter once the Royals need one on April 16 (he’ll be optioned to the minors and pitch in extended spring training until then), while O’Sullivan will work as a long reliever, at least until Mazzaro is added to the roster.

The Royals made the right decision, although really it shouldn’t have been much of a decision. O’Sullivan throws a few more strikes (a career average of 3.1 walks per nine innings, to Mazzaro’s 3.7 BB/9), but Mazzaro is a better pitcher in every other way. He strikes out a full man an inning more than O’Sullivan, and he gives up homers about 30% less often. Mazzaro at least brings the possibility of being a groundball pitcher – as I covered before, the results haven’t backed up his reputation yet – while O’Sullivan has a pronounced flyball lean. O’Sullivan is a year younger, but at a beefy 6’2”, 230, he’s already physically maxed out.

If they were hitters, their youth – O’Sullivan is 23, Mazzaro is 24 – would lead you to think that they still had a lot of development ahead. But pitchers are frequently as good as they’re going to be in their early 20s. If there is improvement ahead, it’s more likely to be in terms of improved command rather than improved stuff. Mazzaro has the better stuff, and has more to gain from improved command than O’Sullivan does. I don’t think he’s going to match his 4.27 ERA from last season, which was both fluky and unrepresentative of his performance (he gave up 12 unearned runs in just 122 innings). But I think he’s a viable fifth starter.

I still don’t see what it is in Mazzaro that convinced the Royals to part with David DeJesus. O’Sullivan, at least, came with Will Smith, a young lefty with terrific control and decent stuff – many scouts think Smith will be the better of the two in the long term. And O’Sullivan was acquired for Alberto Callaspo, who for whatever reason the Royals could not find much of a trade market for. But there were a lot of teams in on DeJesus, and Mazzaro seemed like a thin return, particularly since he came paired with Justin Marks, another left-handed pitcher who doesn’t project as well as Smith does. The fact that it took the Royals until mid-March to even decide that Mazzaro was worthy of the fifth spot in the rotation doesn’t speak well of their decision to trade for him.

I’ve said this before: someone needs to block all phone calls with a 510 area code from getting through to Kauffman Stadium.

A lot has been made of the fact that the Royals have one of the worst Opening Day rotation any team has had in years. I think the criticism is overstated, if for no other reason than it’s not the worst Opening Day rotation the Royals have fielded in recent years. Yes, Luke Hochevar has not earned an Opening Day assignment in any way, shape or form. But in 2006, the Royals started Scott Elarton on Opening Day. I knew Scott Elarton. I rooted for Scott Elarton. Luke Hochevar is no Scott Elarton.

It got worse. You know who started the second game of the season that year? Joe Mays. Mays had gone 6-10 with a 5.75 ERA with the Twins the year before, and somehow, the Royals thought he had something left in the tank. He didn’t; he had already won his last major league game. In his brief time with the Royals that year, Mays would start six times with a 10.27 ERA.  Their third starter was Jeremy Affeldt, who would make nine starts for the Royals that year before being permanently banished to the bullpen. Their fourth starter was Denny Bautista, who made eight starts that year before meeting the same fate. And when they finally needed a fifth starter in 2006, the Royals turned to Mark Redman – who made the All-Star Team. He also had a 5.71 ERA that year, and is included on any list of the worst All-Stars of all time.

At least in 2011, all five members of the starting rotation are credible major-league starters. None of them should be fronting a rotation, or starting on Opening Weekend at all. But while the Yankees are scrambling to figure out the back of their rotation, the Royals are already set with their fifth starter. The problem is that they have six of them.

Bullpen

Joakim Soria and Robinson Tejeda had spots locked up before Spring Training, which left five open spots. The Royals were clearly hoping that two of those spots would go to a left-handed pitcher, going so far as to give Danny Duffy a credible shot at earning a bullpen spot after just seven games in Double-A.

That hasn’t worked out. The Royals will probably start the season with just one left-handed reliever on the roster – they’re desperate enough for a second that they claimed Rule 5 pick Robert Fish off waivers from the Yankees. (Fish has plus-plus velocity according to the scouts; he also had an 8.93 ERA in Double-A last season according to the stats. As I write this, he was just returned to the Angels.)

Fortunately, that one left-hander is tiny Tim Collins, who rumor has it has already won a roster spot. Collins was the prize of the Kyle Farnsworth/Rick Ankiel trade last summer, and by himself made it a win for the Royals. Before spring training began, I said that Collins was the prospect I felt was most ready to break camp with the team. It’s not just that he’s ready, although he pretty clearly is – last season, in 71 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, he struck out 108 batters and had a 2.02 ERA. It’s also because the Royals should feel much more comfortable with starting his service time on March 31st than they would with their more-hyped prospects.

For someone like Mike Moustakas, even if he’s ready, it would be madness for a team with no realistic playoff hopes in 2011 to start with him on the roster. While everyone talks about the “Super-Two” deadline that usually comes in early June, the more important date is the one in mid-April, after which point a player can not be credited with a full year of service time. If Moustakas were to start in the majors on Opening Day, he would be a free agent after 2016. If the Royals wait even two weeks before bringing him up, they could keep his rights until 2017. Keeping him now would not only waste a season on a team going nowhere, but it would sacrifice a season of Moustakas in 2017, when he would be 28 – presumably at his peak – in exchange for a season when he’s 22 and still developing.

That’s not nearly the issue with Collins, simply because it’s rare for any reliever to be effective for more than three or four years. If Collins is still a prized free agent after the 2016 season, the Royals ought to be thankful for what they got. And again, whereas hitters generally improve until age 27 or so, a reliever like Collins is probably as good now as he’s ever going to be, so the Royals might as well see what they have now.

The added bonus of starting the season with Collins is that he gives the Royals a chance to give their fans a teaser of The Greatest Farm System In The History Of Whatever. “See that kid out there? He throws in the low 90s, has a power curveball a devastating changeup, and a deceptive motion. He struck out 13 batters per nine innings in the minors. Oh, and he’s 5-foot-7. You think he’s good, just wait until you see our 6-foot-5 guys.”

That leaves four open spots, all of whom are likely to go to right-handed pitchers. The options include:

- Jeremy Jeffress, who is sort of the right-handed equivalent of Collins – a trade acquisition with tremendous strikeout rates but iffy command. Jeffress has touched 100 all spring, but he’s still walking too many guys and has been prone to the big inning. Jeffress is not quite the finished product that Collins is – he averaged 5.5 walks per nine innings in the minors, while Collins averaged only 3.9. He’s also fairly new to relieving. I have a feeling he’ll be sent back to Omaha, and I have a feeling that it’s in his long-term best interests.

- Kanekoa Texeira, who is sort of the forgotten man of the Royals bullpen. He was a Rule 5 pick of the Mariners last year who actually pitched very well for Kansas City after he was claimed on waivers – until August, when he tried to pitch through some arm soreness with predictable results. He’s pitched very well this spring, and more importantly his velocity has ticked up into the low 90s with a healthy arm. He’s the least sexy option for the pen, so his odds of making the team depend more on the success or failure of the other relievers than his own.

- Nate Adcock, who was a surprise pick in the Rule 5 draft last December, and is even more surprisingly in excellent position to make the team. Like Texeira, there’s nothing sexy here – Adcock throws in the low 90s on a good day, but he has decent off-speed stuff and throws strikes. He’s acquitted himself well in spring training, but has only four strikeouts in 13 innings. I think he’ll make the team; I’m not nearly so certain that he’ll last the season.

- Louis Coleman, who after a long and distinguished career as a starter at LSU – he came back for his senior year – closed out the College World Series for the Tigers in 2009, and has been an outstanding reliever for the Royals’ minor league affiliates ever since. Last season, split between Double-A and Triple-A, Coleman threw 92 innings, allowed 62 hits and 25 walks, and struck out 103. In 7.2 spring training innings, he’s whiffed 12 batters. He throws from a low three-quarters angle and will always be vulnerable to left-handed hitters, but he should make for an excellent situational reliever. However, he’s not on the 40-man roster, and the need to potentially waive a player – even a relative non-prospect like Kevin Pucetas – to add him to the roster might be the tiebreaker that keeps him in Omaha to start the season.

- Luis Mendoza, who apparently looks like a new man this spring. I’m sorry, but I’ve heard this song before. Last season, you might recall – I won’t blame you if you don’t – the Royals acquired Mendoza on the eve of the season from the Rangers, for a player to be named later known as “cash”. Thought they had something on their hands, I suppose. What they had was a guy who gave up 10 runs in four innings, doing his part for a bullpen that was on a historically bad pace in April. Mendoza went to Omaha and pitched okay as a starter, but struck out just 59 batters in 132 innings.

So sorry, but I ain’t buying it. If Mendoza wants to prove he’s a new pitcher, he can go back to Omaha and wait his turn. Fortunately the tea leaves suggest the Royals will do just that, in part because Mendoza, like Coleman, is not on the roster.

- And finally, there is Aaron Crow, who was not expected to be in this discussion for a number of reasons. For one, he’s not supposed to be a reliever. For two, he got his ass handed to him in Double-A and even A-ball last year. Call me old-fashioned, but I like to see my pitchers get their ERAs under 5.50 in the minors before I bring them up to the majors.

What’s weird to me is that a lot of people – people whose opinion I respect – seem to like this move. The dichotomy in opinions stems from the fact that a lot of people think Crow’s future was in the bullpen anyway. There’s no doubt that, while the results weren’t there last season, his stuff was – Crow still threw in the mid-90s with a knockout slider, he simply didn’t throw enough strikes to set up his breaking ball. And in relief, presumably his fastball would be a little faster, his slider a little sharper, and he might well find immediate success in that role, even in the major leagues.

If Crow does make the roster – and rumors are swirling that he has made the team – it still won’t sit right with me. The guy was the Royals’ #1 pick in the 2009 draft, #14 overall, and he was supposed to be the quick-to-the-majors right-handed starter the Royals were lacking. Maybe his future is in the pen, but I think it’s premature to consign a former #1 pick to relief after just one season in pro ball. If he struggles again this season, you can move him – even after just a few months if it’s clear he isn’t making any progress as a starting pitcher. I just think it’s foolish to give up on a potential above-average starting pitcher this soon.

And even if his future is in relief, and I know some scouts think he has upside as a major-league closer, why on earth wouldn’t you let him find some success in that role in the minors first? Everything I wrote about Moustakas above applies here – the Royals are going nowhere, so what’s the rush?

Maybe I’m reading too much into things. Maybe the Royals plan on starting Crow out in the bullpen, and after he finds success in that role they might stretch him out as a starter again. (You know, like the Rangers are doing with Neftali Feliz. No, wait…) But the Royals are hurting Crow’s future value in two ways – they’re moving him to the bullpen, perhaps permanently, and they’re rushing him to the majors Allard Baird-style. Maybe Crow has pitched so well this spring that they’re certain he’s ready for the majors – but the better he’s pitched, the more that’s at stake with his future.

As a side note, why on earth are the Royals going with eight relievers in the first place? I realize that the major-league standard now is that teams carry 12 pitchers, because they think they need a seventh reliever more than a fifth bench player. But if the Royals don’t need a fifth starter for the first two weeks of the season, why the hell would you give that roster spot to another pitcher instead of to a hitter on your bench? The reason you don’t need a fifth starter is because there are three off-days in the first two weeks of the season. Guess what? Relievers get to rest on off-days too. If you can construct a scenario in which the Royals would need eight relievers, that doesn’t involve a 20-inning game, I’d love to hear it. Send O'Sullivan down to the minors - you're probably going to do that anyway in two weeks - and keep an extra bat off the bench, someone that can pinch-hit for Chris Getz or Alcides Escobar in a tight spot.

As I write this, it looks like the Royals will break camp with Soria closing, Tejada and Collins setting up, Crow, Texeira, and Adcock in the middle innings, O’Sullivan in long relief, and either Jeffress or Coleman as the eighth pitcher on the roster. (I have a feeling Coleman will beat out Jeffress, but it’s only a feeling.) Texeira and Adcock are strike-throwers who don’t do anything special, but the other five pitchers all have the ability to be dominant relievers out of the pen. I fully expect the bullpen to be one of the strengths of the team.

Moreover, if Aaron Crow takes to relieving as well as some people expect him to, and if Jeffress irons out his control problems in relief, come 2012 the Royals could have one of the best bullpens in their history, and one of the best in baseball. Soria is Soria. Tejada, when his mechanics aren’t out of whack, is dominant. Collins has video-game numbers to go with an utterly unique set of skills. Coleman has been successful at every stop. The Royals are one more left-handed reliever away from shortening games to six innings. And God knows they have a lot of left-handed options to sort through this season.

Tomorrow, look for my breakdown of the offense. And Tuesday, well, I may have something special planned that day.

My Royals Hall Of Fame Ballot, Part 3.

The second half of my ballot...

Mike Macfarlane (13.1): A tough one. Macfarlane was one of my favorite players of the 1990s, one of the better-hitting catchers in the league for several years. He took over for Bob Boone as the regular backstop in 1990, hitting a respectable .255/.306/.380, but in 1991 he broke out. He was hitting .273/.326/.514 and looked like a credible downballot MVP candidate when Joe Carter plowed into him at the plate on July 15th. Macfarlane missed two months and could only pinch-hit and DH when he returned for the last two weeks of the season.

From 1992 to 1994 Macfarlane was quietly one of the best catchers in baseball; he hit .254 and averaged 17 homers a season, despite averaging less than 400 at-bats a year. He also led the league twice in hit-by-pitches. After the strike he signed as a free agent with the Red Sox, joining the exodus from Kansas City along with David Cone and Brian McRae. But after one disappointing season in Boston, he returned to KC as a free agent, and gave the Royals two more decent years before he was traded to Oakland for Shane Mack.

(Have the Royals ever made a good trade with the A’s? Ever? Macfarlane…Jason Giambi…Johnny Damon…Jermaine Dye…and now David DeJesus. Sheesh.)

Macfarlane caught 847 games for the Royals, easily the most in franchise history, and not surprisingly leads all Royals catchers in counting categories like homers, doubles, RBIs, etc (though not walks, as we’ll talk about later.) He was a nice complementary player for about five years. I’m just not sure he’s a Hall of Famer. His WAR total of 13.1 is also a little short of our proposed standard of 15. If he were the greatest catcher in Royals history, you could make a case for him based on the fact that the Royals don't have any catchers enshrined yet. As we'll see, he isn't. And with some reluctance, I must conclude that he's not worthy of enshrinement.

Darrell May (6.6): We’ll always have 2003. Unfortunately, that’s about all we have. May is pretty clearly the best player the Royals have ever brought over from Japan – his competition includes John Bale, Yasuhiko Yabuta, and if you want to count him, Mac Suzuki. I think the lesson is pretty clear: the Royals should stop bringing players – or managers – over from Japan.

Brent Mayne (-0.5): It’s pretty remarkable, when you think about it, that Mayne could play nine seasons with the Royals, catch in 620 games – second only to Macfarlane in Royals history – and wind up being below replacement-level for his career.

That seems like a harsh assessment of his career, but Mayne hit .244/.305/.322 with the Royals, during one of the best offensive eras in major league history, for an OPS+ of 65. It always seemed like he could hit better than he did. He was a first-round pick out of college, and was in the majors after just one full season in the minors. He was a left-handed hitting catcher, which is always a nice bonus. It just seemed like he was going to make good contact and hit line drives and occasionally run into one – basically, he was supposed to have the career that A.J. Pierzynski has had. He never did, though.

At least not with the Royals. The Royals traded him to the Mets after the 1995 season for the immortal Al Shirley, and Mayne made stops in Oakland, San Francisco, and Colorado, hitting pretty well at each stop. He hit .289/.343/.406 for the A’s in 1997, then .273/.359/.360 for the Giants in 1998. In 1999 he hit .301/.389/.419, and smoked 32 doubles in 322 at-bats. (He was also the man on-deck when Buck Showalter intentionally walked Barry Bonds with the bases loaded in the ninth inning. The move worked, but barely – Mayne lined out hard to the right fielder.)

Mayne hit .301 for the Rockies in 2000, then was hitting .331 in 2001 when the Royals re-acquired him at mid-season for Sal Fasano and Mac Suzuki. At which point Mayne went back to sucking again.

Jose Offerman (8.2): He’s no Royals Hall of Famer, but Offerman was a much better player for the Royals than he’s given credit for. He was surly with the media, and he couldn’t play second base much better than he played shortstop. But he could hit, and he could get on base.

The Dodgers were so fed up with Offerman’s defense that they traded him to the Royals for Billy Brewer after the 1995 season. Offerman hit .303/.384/.417 his first year in Kansas City, with 24 steals. He played 36 games at shortstop and 38 games at second base, and then Tony Muser – himself a one-time slick glove man at first base – got this crazy idea to move Offerman to first base. It was crazy, but also a little inspired – Offerman was actually a pretty damn good defender at the position, as he had plenty of athleticism and he didn’t have to worry about making long throws anymore. The numbers bear it out – in half a season at first base, he was +5 runs defensively according to baseball-reference.

Anyway, Offerman was the full-time second baseman in 1997 and 1998. In 1998, he hit .315/.403/.438, stole 45 bases, and led the league with 13 triples. His 89 walks that year are the most in a single season by any Royal since 1990. Even with below-average defense at second base, he was a hell of a player. In his three seasons with the Royals, Offerman hit .306/.385/.419. His OBP is the highest in franchise history.

After the 1998 season he signed with the Red Sox as a free agent; the Royals used one of the two compensation picks on Mike MacDougal. MacDougal brought them Dan Cortes; Cortes brought them Yuniesky Betancourt. So if you’re looking for another reason to kick Offerman when he’s down, there you go.

Darrell Porter (17.3): It was a hell of a year. And unlike Al Cowens, it wasn’t a fluke.

You know what was the greatest single season ever by a Royals hitter? Of course you do; it was George Brett in 1980 (9.6 WAR). But do you know who had the second-greatest season? It was…okay, it was George Brett again, in 1979 (8.7). But the third-greatest season by a Royals hitter, the best by someone other than Brett, was Darrell Porter in 1979.

Darrell Porter hit .291/.421/.484 that year. He led the league with 121 walks, just one behind the franchise record of 122 set by John Mayberry in 1973. In major-league history, only two other catchers (defined as someone who caught in at least two-thirds of his games) drew as many walks in a season as Porter did that year: Mickey Tettleton, with 122 in 1992, and Gene Tenace, with 125 in 1977. From 1971 to 1995, no catcher matched Porter’s .421 OBP in a single season.

He also hit 20 homers and 10 triples and drove in 112 runs, and threw out 47% of attempted basestealers. It was an MVP-worthy season. Porter finished ninth in the balloting, because OBP wasn’t sexy back then.

While it was the best of Porter’s four seasons in Kansas City, it wasn’t his only good one. The Royals acquired him after the 1976 season in a trade – one of their many, many, many great trades of the decade – sending Jamie Quirk, Jim Rohlford, and current pitching coach Bob McClure to Milwaukee for Porter and Jim Colborn. In 1976, Porter had hit just .208/.298/.288 for the Brewers. But in 1977, Porter hit .275/.353/.452 with 16 homers in just 130 games. In 1978 he had hit .265/.358/.444 with 18 homers, threw out 37% of basestealers, and actually finished tenth in MVP voting. He also made the first of three straight All-Star Games that year. Only in 1980, his final season with Kansas City, did Porter slump; he mustered just 7 homers and hit .249/.354/.342.

Porter only played four years with the Royals, but those four years were enough to clearly mark him as the best catcher in franchise history. He hit .271/.375/.435, contributing power and remarkable patience as a left-handed stick, and was a plus defensive catcher, throwing out 42% of basestealers in that span.

Porter left as a free agent after the 1980 season and signed with the Cardinals; he was one of the few players the Royals lost to free agency in that era, and if memory serves I think the Royals were not entirely bent on keeping him. Cocaine was already becoming an issue for Porter; it would affect him in his career with the Cardinals, although it didn’t keep him from having several more good seasons as a part-timer. And eventually, after many years of apparent sobriety, it would kill him.

Porter’s time with Kansas City, like his time on earth, was short. But it wasn’t without impact. He was the starting catcher on three division champions and one World Series team. In my book, he’s a Hall of Famer.

Joe Randa (15.0): Ah, geez, talk about a bubble case – Randa is right on the line at 15.0 WAR. He came up in 1995 as a former 11th-round pick, had a nice rookie season in 1996 (.303/.351/.433), and then was traded in one of the more astonishing deals in Royals history, when Herk Robinson dealt Randa and three pitchers named Jeff – Granger, Martin, and Wallace – to the Pirates for Jeff King and Jay Bell.

It was a bizarre trade – both because the Pirates were dumping two of their best players for an average third baseman and three live arms who would never pan out, and because the beneficiaries of their dumping were the Royals. The trade looked too good to be true, but it wasn’t. Bell spent just one year with the Royals, but it was easily the greatest season by a shortstop in team history: he hit .291/.368/.461 before leaving for free agency. (The Royals blew the two compensation picks they got on Matt Burch and Chris George.) King gave the Royals two years of average offense but excellent defense at first base, then abruptly and very kindly retired early in the 1999 season, opening a door for Mike Sweeney to play every day.

If Randa had never returned to Kansas City, the trade wouldn’t have been the steal that it was. But two years later, after one good year with the Pirates and one bad one with the Tigers, the Royals re-acquired Randa. It looked like a lopsided deal at the time – in favor of the Mets, who got former first-rounder Juan LeBron for Randa. (The Mets had just acquired Randa from Detroit for Willie Blair.) But LeBron never made the major leagues, and Randa hit .314/.363/.473 in his first year back with the Royals. That exchange – trading Randa and fluff for two everyday players, then re-acquiring Randa for a failed prospect – is probably the highlight of Herk Robinson’s tenure as GM.

Randa was never again as good as he was in 1999, but from 2000 to 2004 he was an average third baseman, maybe a few runs below average on offense and a few runs above average on defense. He played 1019 games with the Royals, and hit .288/.340/.428, before finishing his career with the Reds, Padres, and finally the Pirates again in 2006.

I can’t bring myself to vote for him. He was a good player, but never a great player; even in 1999, he was maybe the fifth-best player in the lineup behind Sweeney, Jermaine Dye, Johnny Damon, and Carlos Beltran. He never had a chance to add to his resume with some postseason moments. His numbers look better than they were because he played in the height of the high-offense era. He deserves to be remembered, and remembered fondly. But I can’t convince myself that he belongs in the Royals Hall of Fame.

Kevin Seitzer (14.9): Gee, this isn’t any easier. According to WAR, Seitzer and Randa are separated by a rounding error.

Seitzer and Randa have more in common than just their WAR totals and their position. Both were high-average, low-to-medium power guys. Both were drafted in the 11th round – Randa in 1991, Seitzer in 1983. But while Randa took a long time to find success, Seitzer was a revelation from the get-go. He came up in September 1986, and hit .323/.440/.448 in 28 games, playing mostly first base. The Royals were sufficiently impressed to move Brett to first base that off-season to accommodate Seitzer, who didn’t disappoint. As a rookie, Seitzer hit .323/.399/.470 in 1987, led the league with 207 hits, chipped in 15 homers, drew 80 walks, and made the All-Star Team. He even got a few MVP votes. It was pretty clearly the best rookie season in Royals history, but thanks to Mark McGwire and his 49 homers, Seitzer did not with Rookie of the Year honors.

Seitzer could not maintain that performance level, and didn’t. His performance dropped in a straight line after 1987; his OPS+ from 1986 to 1991 reads 141, 128, 122, 106, 103, and 95. Seitzer was never a great defensive player, and by 1991 his defense was decidedly sub-par. By mid-season, with Seitzer not hitting all that well, manager Hal McRae decided to make a radical defensive upgrade, benching Seitzer and Kurt Stillwell in favor of Bill Pecota and David Howard. The following spring, the Royals unceremoniously released Seitzer a week before Opening Day.

Seitzer caught on with the Brewers, playing 148 games and batting a respectable .270/.337/.367. His bat recovered from 1994 to 1996, hitting over .300 each year with lots of walks, and down the stretch in 1996 the Indians traded Jeromy Burnitz to acquire Seitzer. He crushed the ball for Cleveland, batting .386/.480/.542 in 22 games, and hit well in their ALDS loss to the Oriokles. Seitzer had an off-year with the Indians in 1997 and then retired.

Like Randa, Seitzer’s Hall of Fame case is hurt by the fact that while he hit for average, he had very little power – aside from 1987, when everyone hit for power, Seitzer never hit more than six homers in a season with the Royals. Seitzer was an on-base machine – he’s the last Royal to draw 100 walks in a season, in 1989 – but wasn’t the glove man that Randa was. And he was only a starter for about four-and-a-half seasons. If you’ve read this blog for long, you know what a big fan I am of Seitzer’s approach as the team’s hitting coach, and I’m rooting for him to have enough success in that role over the next several years that he’ll be a worthy Hall of Fame candidate for his dual role. But for now, I have to say no.

As an aside, the run of third basemen the Royals have had is pretty damn incredible. They haven’t always had a superstar at the position, but with very few exceptions, there has never been a point where the Royals have had a scar at the position. Consider this timeline:

1969: Joe Foy, who had a very solid year; he hit .262/.354/.370 and stole 37 bases. It was good enough that the Mets – who were always looking for third baseman back then – traded Amos Otis to get him after the season.

1970-1973: Paul Schaal. Before he became a chiropractor and set the all-time major-league record for most marriages (seriously – he’s been married nine times at last count), Schaal was a pretty good third baseman for the Royals. He was a bad defensive player, but could hit .270 (pretty good in those days) with a ton of walks. He was sort of a poor man’s Kevin Seitzer.

1974-1986: George Brett.

1987-1991: Kevin Seitzer.

1992: Gregg Jefferies, who hit .285/.329/.404 before he was foolishly traded for Felix Jose and predictably turned into a star in St. Louis.

1993-1995: The Royals handed the job over to Phil Hiatt in 1993, who was terrible, and in desperation they signed Gary Gaetti after the Angels released him mid-season. Gaetti had been terrible for years, to the point where the Angels ate millions of dollars in salary – and to everyone’s surprise, Gaetti gave the Royals three good years, culminating with 35 homers in a strike-shortened 1995.

1996: Joe Randa, with a little Craig Paquette thrown in.

1997: Randa was traded, and the Royals foolishly thought Paquette could handle the job. When he couldn’t, they…

1997-1998: Traded Tom Goodwin for Dean Palmer, who was very good down the stretch in 1997, and slammed 34 homers in 1998.

1999-2004: Come back Joe Randa! All is forgiven!

2005-2006: Mark Teahen was given the job, and was just okay in 2005. He sucked to start 2006, and Esteban German and Tony Graffanino ably handled the position until Teahen came back and raked the second half of the year.

2007-2008: The Alex Gordon era commenceth.

2009: When Gordon got hurt, Teahen moved back to the position.

2010: Gordon moved to left field early in the year, allowing Alberto Callaspo to man the position until he was traded, at which point Wilson Betemit took over – and raked.

Last season was one of the few times in Royals history that the position was unsettled – the only other times were in 1993, when Phil Hiatt tanked, and 1997, when Craig Paquette did the same. And in 2011, Mike Aviles is just holding the base warm for Mike Moustakas.

Even in those seasons where the Royals’ third baseman struggled, they were usually able to fix the hole by the end of the season, as when they picked up Gary Gaetti or Dean Palmer. The worst combined performance by a Royals third baseman might be 1972, when Schaal had an off-year, or 1997, when Palmer didn’t arrive until August, or 2001, when Joe Randa had his worst season. But even last year, with all the turmoil, Royals third baseman combined to hit .283/.334/.422 with 17 homers and 51 walks.

I don’t know if it means anything. I just think it’s interesting that the Royals have had so little problem finding a competent third baseman over the years, even while they’ve struggled to find any competent shortstop.

Michael Tucker (1.0): In my memory, Michael Tucker was a Royal for seven or eight years, but the numbers say he was a member of the team for only four years and 418 games. He was the crown jewel of the 1992 draft, a college star and a member of the U.S. Olympic team, headlining a class of talent that included Johnny Damon, a pre-injury Jim Pittsley, and Jon Lieber. He finally arrived on Opening Day, 1995, with the kind of hype that presaged Alex Gordon’s reception 12 years later. Two years later he was traded for Jermaine Dye, which looked like a terrible trade for a year or two and then a brilliant trade after that.

The Royals traded Shawn Sonnier, who was once a relief prospect of some repute, to get Tucker back after the 2001 season. It’s strange; star players leave the Royals never to return, but the average guys – Tucker and Randa and Macfarlane and Mayne – all find ways to return home to roost. Tucker gave the Royals a couple of decent seasons in 2002 and 2003, and a well-time hot streak in 2003 helped revive the Royals playoff hopes that year. He never lived up to the promise of being the #10 pick in the draft, but then, most guys don’t.

U.L. Washington (6.2): The toothpick absolutely deserves a place in the Hall, and for all I know there might be one there as an exhibit. Washington is clearly grandfathered into the voting process, meaning he received at least two votes in one of the last two elections. I find it strange that Washington would receive two votes while someone like Charlie Leibrandt or Danny Tartabull wouldn’t, but hey, I just got here.

John Wathan (3.2): Duke sure had an interesting career. He debuted in 1976, retired after 1985 – you couldn’t pick a better 10-year stretch – and spent his entire career with the Royals. He set the still-standing major-league record for steals by a catcher in 1982, with 36, and he wasn’t padding the record with a lot of high-risk attempts – he was only caught nine times. In 1980, he hit .305 and got named on an MVP ballot. And after Herzog and Howser, Wathan is pretty clearly the best manager in Royals history – the 1987 Royals almost caught the Twins in September after Wathan took over, and the 1989 Royals won 92 games, more than they had in 1985.

So in the end, with a nod to Al Fitzmorris, my ballot is: Kevin Appier by acclamation, Darrell Porter, and Bo Jackson. Joe Randa and Kevin Seitzer are peering in through the window, and while I don’t like the idea of changing my vote on a player, I can’t say with certainty that I won’t reconsider my no votes for them.