Felipe and Ubaldo.

Last night, Felipe Paulino took the mound for the 12th time as a member of the Kansas City Royals, the 11th time as a starting pitcher. After allowing back-to-back triples to start the game, Paulino bore down; he worked into the seventh, and aside from a solo homer in the fifth inning, kept the Tigers off the board the rest of the way. For the fifth time in his last seven starts, he struck out at least seven batters. For his seventh start in a row, he walked no more than two batters. He pitched at least six innings for the seventh time in eight games.

And after watching Paulino once again make a quality start, and once again show glimpses of domination, the strangest question entered my head:

Who would you rather have right now: Felipe Paulino or Ubaldo Jimenez?

On the surface, this question is insane, and you’d have to suspect the same of anyone who poses it. Ten weeks ago, Paulino was waived by the Colorado Rockies with a 5.93 career ERA. Last year, Jimenez went 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA and finished 3rd in the Cy Young vote.

But this year, Jimenez is struggling a little – he allowed five runs in his Indians debut last night, raising his ERA in 2011 to 4.64. Since joining the Royals, Paulino has a 3.56 ERA.

Jimenez has pitched better than his ERA would suggest this year – in 128 innings, he has 125 strikeouts and walked just 49 batters unintentionally. He’s only allowed 11 homers, and that’s actually an uncharacteristically high number for him. (His career high is just 13, which is absolutely astonishing – he averaged 213 innings a year from 2008 to 2010 and pitched in Coors Field.) His xFIP this season is only 3.55.

Of course, Paulino has also pitched better than his ERA this year, as he has throughout his career. Since joining the Royals, he has 70 strikeouts and just 17 unintentional walks in 73 innings. He’s allowed just five home runs. While Jimenez has a history of being an extreme groundball pitcher, this year the two are indistinguishable: Jimenez has a 46.7% groundball percentage, Paulino is at 46.6%. Paulino’s xFIP this year – including 15 lousy innings with the Rockies – is 3.42. He hasn’t been lucky with the Royals – he simply hasn’t been extraordinarily unlucky like he was with the Astros. He’s also cut his walks and homers almost in half. The improvement in his home run rate is probably a little lucky, although it also has a lot to do with the ballpark. The improvement in his control looks like it’s for real.

Jimenez turns 28 in January. Paulino turns 28 in October.

Jimenez’s average fastball this year is 93.4 mph; one of the reasons to be concerned about him is that his velocity is down from years past, as his fastball averaged 96.1 mph in both 2010 and 2009. Paulino’s average fastball this year is 95.0 mph.

Jimenez’s slider averages 83.4, his curveball 76.7, his changeup 86.4. Paulino’s slider is 87.3, his curveball 78.2, his changeup 86.5. Both guys throw their curve about 8% of the time. Jimenez throws his fastball a little more and his changeup a lot more; Paulino relies much more heavily on his slider.

In addition to his effectiveness, one of the things that makes Jimenez so valuable is his durability – he has made at least 33 starts in each of the last three years, and has thrown 199, 218, and 222 innings. Paulino, of course, has no such record of durability. But break down his performance record more closely, and all the signs are there that, left to his own devices, he can be a durable starter.

Start with the fact that he’s thrown at least 104 pitches in seven straight starts, and threw at least 113 pitchers in the first four starts in that run, without any loss in effectiveness.

Then there’s the fact that he seems to be the rare pitcher who might actually be more effective as a starting pitcher than as a reliever. In his career he’s made 32 relief appearances and thrown only 39 innings in relief, but his ERA in that role is 9.15. (Throw out his first appearance with the Royals, when he stepped off a plane and retired 13 of 14 batters, and his relief ERA is 10.29.) In 45 career starts, his ERA is 4.76.

The reason Paulino pitches better in the rotation is twofold: 1) he tends to struggle early in his outings, and 2) he maintains his stuff deep into games. Consider that with the Royals this year, he has a 5.67 ERA in the first three innings of the game. From the fourth inning on, he’s allowed 8 runs in 40 innings – a 1.80 ERA.

While he hasn’t shown that extreme a pattern throughout his career, consider his career numbers when facing a batter for the first, second, and third times in a game:

First time through the lineup: .292/.357/.482

Second time through the lineup: .306/.359/.493

Third/fourth time through the lineup: .274/.371/.380

These numbers are a little misleading, in that a pitcher might not get to stick around long enough to face the lineup a third time if he isn’t pitching well – but even so, most pitchers do worse the third time through the lineup. (You don’t even want to know what Luke Hochevar’s splits are.) Paulino has not shown that tendency; if anything, he only get stronger.

Taking everything into consideration, the two pitchers are surprisingly even. The only area where Jimenez has a decided advantage is that he’s been doing it for four years instead of ten weeks.

That is, of course, an enormous advantage. But in Paulino’s corner is this: while Jimenez is only under contract through 2013, Paulino won’t be a free agent until after the 2015 season – four more years after this one. Jimenez is already signed to a ridiculously cheap contract – I believe the Indians owe him about $11 million between now and the end of the contract. Paulino is not signed; he will be eligible for arbitration for the second time this winter. Last winter, as a Super Two, he signed for $790,000. Even as well as he’s pitched this year, it’s unlikely he’ll make more than $1.5 million or so for 2012.

One thing that will keep his salary down is that, while Paulino has a fine ERA since joining the Royals, he’s only 1-4. (In Paulino’s 11 starts, the Royals have scored more than 3 runs just three times, and never more than 5.) He somehow lost four games in his short time with the Rockies, and last season he was 1-8 for the Astros. While win-loss records are almost meaningless, they probably have some impact in arbitration – and Paulino is 2-17 over the last two years. In 2009, he was 3-11. For his career, he’s 7-29. Right now, Paulino is tied with a pitcher named Ken Reynolds for the worst career winning percentage in major-league history for a pitcher with 35 or more decisions. I doubt that’s going to hold up, but in the meantime, that’s a hell of a stat to drop at an arbitration hearing.

If Paulino continues to pitch well in 2012, I could see him in line for a $5 million award in 2013 and escalating salaries after that. But better a pitcher with an escalating salary than a pitcher who’s a free agent.

So I ask you: after everything I’ve presented, if you’re the Royals, would you trade Felipe Paulino for Ubaldo Jimenez straight up? Do you trade a pitcher you picked up on waivers ten weeks ago, but who has pitched like a #2 starter since, for an established #2 starter who has shown flashes of being an ace? You gain security, predictability, and upside. But you also gain the concerns about Jimenez’s diminished velocity and the mystery of why the Rockies were so eager to trade him. And you lose club control of your pitcher in 2014 and 2015.

Who do you want: Felipe Paulino or Ubaldo Jimenez? This isn’t a loaded question. I honestly don’t know myself. But the mere fact that I can propose this question and not get completely laughed out of the room – well, my room, for all I know you’re ROTFLMAO right now – says something, doesn’t it?

The Cleveland Indians gave up their two best pitching prospects, a pair of Top-15 picks in Drew Pomeranz and Alex White, along with two lesser prospects, for the rights to Jimenez. And (at least in my opinion) they got the better end of the deal.

The Royals, meanwhile, picked up Felipe Paulino for the price of a waiver claim.

Eventually I’ll stop pimping Paulino. Eventually he’ll turn back into a pumpkin (although I don’t think he will), or I’ll get tired of singing his praises (doubtful), or people will wake up and recognize what the Royals have (bingo!)

But until that last thing happens, I’ll continue to say it: Felipe Paulino is not your typical free-talent find. The Royals, a team with a promising core of offense and a deep bullpen but utterly bereft of starting pitching, picked up a guy on waivers at the end of May, and at the beginning of August I’m undecided whether I’d trade that guy for Ubaldo Jimenez. He’s not simply one of the better moves of the Dayton Moore era.  The decision to sign Paulino might go down as one of the best moves in the history of the franchise.

Update: As a commenter astutely pointed out, Paulino is a free agent after 2014, not 2015; my apologies for the error. Given that Paulino is under club control for only one more season than Jimenez, the decision swings more clearly towards Jimenez. My general point stands, though.

Putting The "Dead" In The Deadline.

Well, that was kind of a dud.

In the week leading up to the trade deadline, no fewer than 26 trades were made, ranging from the irrelevant (Juan Rivera for a PTBNL) to the blockbuster (Ubaldo Jimenez for four Indians prospects) to the baffling (the three-way Edwin Jackson/Colby Rasmus trade). Somehow, the Royals were involved in only one of them, and the player involved was Mike Aviles. What happened?

The knee-jerk response is to blame Dayton Moore, to say that he erred by not trading any of his veterans, whether it was hitters Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur or starting pitchers Jeff Francis and Bruce Chen. Even if the offers were insulting, better to get something for a guy like Francis than let him walk as a free agent. And in the case of Cabrera and Francoeur, trading one of them would open up an everyday job for Lorenzo Cain, which by itself would justify trading them, even for a less-than-ideal offer.

The knee-jerk response may be the right one. But let’s try to dig through what happened here, and what the Royals’ options might have been, before we dispense blame.

To review, here are the four Royals who were (presumably) on the market:

Melky Cabrera: 26 years old, hitting .304/.340/.466 (124 OPS+). Career OPS+ of 91. Below-average defender in CF; average-plus in a corner spot. Salary of $1.25 million. Under contract for 2012.

Jeff Francoeur: 27 years old, hitting .272/.326/.464 (120 OPS+). Career OPS+ of 94. Average range but outstanding arm in RF. Salary of $2.5 million. Mutual option for $4 million in 2012.

Jeff Francis: 30 years old, 4.38 ERA, 136 IP, 154 H, 24 UIBB, 70 K, 12 HR. Salary of $2 million plus incentives. Free agent after the season.

Bruce Chen: 34 years old, 4.29 ERA, 78 IP, 86 H, 25 UIBB, 47 K, 12 HR. Salary of $2 million plus incentives. Free agent after the season.

Cabrera clearly stands out from the other three players in terms of value, both because of his contract status (he’s the cheapest, and the only one under club control for next year) and in terms of performance. He’s the only one of the four that I gave better than even odds would be traded in my deadline preview.

And if the trade deadline had played out differently, he probably would have been traded. There were three contending teams that had made the acquisition of an outfielder a priority – San Francisco, Philadelphia, and Atlanta. There was only one high-quality outfielder that was clearly on the market – the Mets’ Carlos Beltran. Cabrera was sort of Carlos Beltran Lite on the market – like Beltran, he’s a switch-hitter with power and speed, and the ability to fake center field or play either corner spot. So if the two runners-up for Beltran took a liking to Cabrera, there was a trade waiting to be made.

The problem was that one of the three teams – the Braves – would not have traded for Cabrera under any but the most dire circumstances, simply because 1) he sucked for them in 2010 and 2) they cut him after the season, only to see him revive his career with the Royals. For Frank Wren to have re-acquired Cabrera at the deadline would not only have been a PR nightmare – Cabrera was a piñata for Braves fans given his play and the fact that he was overweight and out-of-shape in Atlanta – but it would have been a tacit admission by Wren that he screwed up by letting Cabrera go in the first place. So that was out.

If the Braves had traded for Beltran – and they were certainly in the running – Lorenzo Cain might be our starting centerfielder today. But the Giants won the sweepstakes when they were willing to part with Zach Wheeler*, one of the top 25 prospects in baseball today, for Beltran.

*: This brings up an interesting question: did the Mets get more for Beltran, who is 34 years old and can no longer run or play centerfield, than the Royals got for Beltran when he was 27 years old and could do everything? The Royals got Mark Teahen, John Buck, and Mike Wood – the first two were borderline Top 100 prospects, but neither was a blue-chipper like Wheeler is. You could make the case either way, but when you consider that Beltran isn’t the player he used to be, and the fact that per his contract the Giants can’t offer him arbitration (so they won’t get any draft picks when he leaves), and either the Giants overpaid for him, or the Royals got jobbed. I’ll leave it as an exercise to the reader to determine which.

With the Giants out of play, that left Philadelphia as a possible destination for Cabrera. The Phillies had already indicated a preference for a right-handed hitting outfielder (which is why there were some rumors that they might be interested in Francoeur), and they decided to go that route, giving up a nice package of prospects for Hunter Pence.

We can argue whether they overpaid for Pence, or whether Pence is really a difference-maker worth trading four prospects for. Just compare the two:

Pence was hitting .308/.356/.471 – in a good hitter’s park in the NL.

Cabrera is hitting .304/.340/.466 – in a neutral park in the AL.

Pence is 28 years old; Cabrera turns 27 next week.

Pence is making $6.9 million this year; Cabrera is making $1.25 million.

Pence is under contract for two more years; Cabrera for one.

Pence is a slightly better player, and he has a much more consistent track record. But he’s also far more expensive, and while he’s under contract for one additional season, he might make eight figures in arbitration next season, while Cabrera will be lucky to make $5 million.

Ultimately it’s a moot point – the Phillies wanted Pence, and they were willing to pay for him. And at that point, there was no obvious destination for Cabrera to go. (Not that it mattered, but Atlanta solved their outfield problem brilliantly, getting Michael Bourn – who on the whole is probably a slightly better player than Pence – without giving up a single top prospect.)

As disappointed as I am that Cabrera wasn’t traded, I don’t see a trade opportunity that Dayton Moore missed. The only other outfielders to be traded to a contender were Ryan Ludwick (for a player to be named later) and Kosuke Fukudome, who was traded for a pair of marginal prospects named Abner Abreu and Carlton Smith. (You know they’re marginal because their names are “Abner” and “Carlton”.)

As outsiders, we can never fully analyze a GM’s decision-making, because we’ll never know the trade offers that were or weren’t made. But as best as I can tell, Moore didn’t make a mistake by holding on to Melky. The mistake would have been trading him for a marginal return. Cabrera is under contract for next season, he’ll be relatively inexpensive, and he’ll be 27 years old, and while it’s possible that his performance this year is a fluke, he’s young enough that it’s entirely possible it’s for real.

If you believe, as I do, that the Royals should go into 2012 looking to contend, and if you believe, as I do, that Melky Cabrera is clearly the second-best outfielder the Royals have under contact for 2012, then it would be stupid to move him just to move him. Standing pat wasn’t the sexy move here, but it was probably the right one.

With respect to Francoeur, there are two issues which I think are being confused:

1) Should the Royals have traded him?

2) Having decided not to trade him, will the Royals now give him a long-term deal?

Francoeur has the industry reputation of being a valuable role player, someone who can play defense and hit left-handed pitching, but not an everyday guy. As such, it’s likely that the market for him – if there was one at all – was comparable to what the Padres got for Ludwick (a PTBNL) or the Cubs got for Fukudome (a couple borderline guys). Remember, Francoeur was traded to a contender last year, and all the Rangers gave up to get him was Joaquin Arias – the same Arias that the Royals signed as a minor-league free agent after the Mets released him barely two months later.

The meager return that Francoeur was likely to bring was reason enough not to trade him. But on top of that, I think it’s time to admit that Jeff Francoeur isn’t the player he was as recently as last year. He’s a legitimate everyday rightfielder.

Look at his monthly splits:

April: .314/.357/.569

May: .233/.287/.388

June: .235/.280/.367

July: .306/.377/.531

Francoeur got off to a hot start (as he has with all three of his previous teams), then regressed back into being Jeff Francoeur for two months, inviting the usual snark from the usual places. Only with his hot July, he’s not only destroyed the narrative of “Jeff Francoeur: terrible ballplayer, except in his first month with a new team!”, he also has four months of evidence that he’s an improved ballplayer.

His overall line of .272/.326/.464 is easily his best since his half-season as a rookie in 2005. Remember, this isn’t the Home Run Era anymore. In 2007, Francoeur hit .293/.338/.444, roughly the same split line, but his OPS+ was just 102 – this year, it’s 120.

Maybe it’s a fluke, but if you want to make that case, there isn’t a whole lot of statistical evidence to back you up. Normally, fluky seasons are driven by a high batting average on balls in play, but Francoeur’s BABIP (.293) is actually lower than his career mark of .298. He is showing improved plate discipline – he’s on pace for a career high in walks, and his strikeout-to-unintentional-walk ratio is 2.61. That’s not very good, but for Francoeur it represents dramatic improvement – his previous career best is 3.26.

But the most stunning aspect of Francoeur’s season is that he has 18 steals; he had 23 career steals in six seasons before 2011. He also had been caught 18 times (56% success rate) before this season, but he’s been thrown out just five times this year (78% success rate).

However you break it down, it’s becoming increasingly clear that Francoeur has made real improvements on offense. Defensively, he remains a rightfielder with average range, but with a tremendous arm – both in terms of strength and accuracy. He’s thrown out 11 runners this season, the seventh year in a row he’s done that.

He’s still only 27 years old. Do I want to sign him to a long-term deal? Hell no. Would I be willing to bring him back on a one-year deal? Absolutely.

He’s got a mutual option for next season. That doesn’t guarantee that he’ll be back, and it doesn’t prevent the Royals from doing something dumb like giving him a four-year deal after the season. But there is a chance he’ll be back next season at a reasonable salary, and that possibility is a lot more valuable than cashing him in for another Joaquin Arias.

Last week, on the Border Patrol’s show on 810 WHB, Buster Olney said he was “99% sure” that the Rays would trade B.J. Upton. Upton did not, in fact, get traded. Upton, like Cabrera, is under contract for one more season, and the Rays are probably out of the race this year, and like the Royals they have a prospect waiting to take over the spot (Desmond Jennings, who’s currently playing left field.) I think the Rays, more than almost any team in baseball, have earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to trades: if they didn’t trade a player, it’s probably because the offer wasn’t there. If the offer wasn’t there for Upton, I think the burden of proof lies with those who accuse the Royals of turning down a good offer for Cabrera and Francoeur.

I absolutely recognize that there is a danger that, with Francoeur still on the team, that Dayton Moore will finally succumb to his most primal urges and give Francoeur a long-term deal. But even if that happens, the mistake lies with the long-term deal, not with the decision to hold on to him right now. At this point, the Royals should finish the season with Francoeur, and then make a decision as to whether or not to bring him back on a one-year deal, whether it’s in the form of his mutual option or a similar contract.

If not, and Francoeur walks, there’s a good chance they’ll get a draft pick in return. MLB Trade Rumors put up their latest Elias Rankings yesterday, and if the season had ended then, Francoeur would be the highest-ranked outfielder not to achieve a Type B ranking. A strong finish by Francoeur might make him harder to retain, but it also makes it more likely that the Royals will get a draft pick when he does leave.

In the end, the clamoring from fans to move Cabrera and Francoeur has very little to do with their performance this year, or even the sustainability of that performance. It has almost everything to do with Lorenzo Cain. As I write this, the Painkiller is hitting .318/.389/.522 in Omaha, with a career-high 13 home runs. He continues to get good marks for his defensive ability, and would certainly be an upgrade over Cabrera in centerfield.

Granted, as Royals fans we don’t have much experience with this particular phenomenon, so it’s understandable if we don’t know how to react. But when a team has a player in Triple-A who is clearly ready for the majors, and his position is capably filled at the major-league level, sometimes you just have to wait. This isn’t Kila Ka’aihue being blocked by Mike Jacobs.

I had this discussion with Joe Sheehan on my radio show last Thursday, and he made some strong points:

1) Cain is going to be a capable centerfielder in the majors, but not a particularly good one. His .318/.389/.522 line against minor-league pitchers in a good hitter’s environment is not that much better than Cabrera’s .304/.340/.466 line for the Royals.

2) Cain is only 20 months younger than Cabrera. This isn’t a 22-year-old phenom we’re talking about here.

Based on that, if you’re the Royals, don’t you have to at least explore what Cain’s trade value is? He still has a prospecty sheen to him, and he hit over .300 in the majors last year, and he’s under club control for six seasons. If you can’t get a #3 starter in exchange for Cabrera or Francoeur, shouldn’t you find out if you can get one for Cain? We’ve reached the point in baseball’s economics where prospects are overvalued – just look at what the Indians gave up to get Ubaldo Jimenez* – and since Cain doesn’t project to be an impact player, the odds that the Royals would get burned badly by dealing him are small.

*: I’m surprised that the general reaction to the Jimenez trade is that the Rockies did well. Am I missing something? Jimenez almost won the Cy Young Award last season pitching in Coors Field. He has a 4.48 ERA this year, but 1) it’s the worst ERA of his career; 2) his peripherals suggest that his ERA should be much better; 3) he’s STILL an above-average starting pitcher. In exchange, the Indians gave up Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, and two nobodies. Pomeranz and White are both fine prospects – but if the Rockies are lucky, one of them will be as good as Jimenez one day. Meanwhile the Indians have Jimenez now, and for the next two years, at a ridiculously low salary. Pomeranz and White are comparable to Mike Montgomery and Aaron Crow. I love Montgomery and Crow, but if I could trade them for a guaranteed above-average starter with ace potential through 2013? I’d strongly consider that.

These things have a way of sorting themselves out. Maybe Francoeur opts out of his contract, or maybe the Royals find a buyer for Cabrera over the winter. But if not, trading Cain has to be considered as a fallback position.

As for Francis and Chen…they’re both serviceable starters, but “serviceable” isn’t going to get you much on the trade market. The same change in offensive levels that makes Francoeur better than he looks also makes Francis and Chen less impressive than you might think – an ERA in the low 4s just isn’t that special anymore. It doesn’t help that neither pitcher strikes out even 6 batters per 9 innings.

Aside from Jimenez, just three starting pitchers were acquired by a contender at the deadline. Doug Fister is a command-and-control pitcher who benefits from his ballpark and defense, sort of the right-handed version of Francis. But in addition to sporting a 3.33 ERA, he’s also under club control through 2014; this wasn’t a short-term rental by the Tigers. (And even then, I think they gave up too much.) Jason Marquis, as a 32-year-old in the final year of his contract, is more directly comparable to Francis and Chen. But his ERA and peripherals both point to him being a slightly better option. In exchange, the Diamondbacks traded Zach Walters, their ninth-round pick last season, and who’s having a pretty good season as a middle infielder in the Midwest League. He has maybe a 10% chance of turning into Mark Ellis or something.

The third guy is Erik Bedard, who the Red Sox got in a complicated three-way deal at the deadline. Bedard is an entirely different kettle of fish; going back to 2006, he has a 3.41 ERA and has struck out over a man an inning. The issue is that 2006 is also the last year in which he threw a pitch in September; the dude just can’t stay healthy. But for the Red Sox, they’d rather have a potential #2 starter than a guaranteed #4 starter; they already have a bunch of those.

And that’s it. No other contender made a trade for a starting pitcher. The Reds, who I thought might be a landing spot for Francis, had a terrible week going into the trading deadline and weren’t buyers at all. If you’re frustrated that the Royals didn’t move Chen and Francis, what about the fact that the Padres, with every incentive to move Heath Bell, couldn’t find a suitable market for him? If the offers aren’t there for a player, even one who is an impending free agent, it’s counterproductive to trade a guy just to say you did.

So as much as I’d like to muster up some outrage that Chen and Francis are still around, I really can’t. I didn’t see much of a market for them when I wrote my deadline preview two weeks ago, and the way the deadline went down doesn’t change my opinion any. If a contender develops a sudden need for a starting pitcher this month, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if either Francis or Chen still get traded after clearing waivers. But otherwise, I expect they’ll finish the season in Kansas City.

(It’s also worth pointing out that, amazing as this may sound, according to MLB Trade Rumors yesterday Bruce Chen would actually qualify as a Type B free agent – even after his 10-run debacle last week, he was the last Type B pitcher on the list. He’ll need to pitch well down the stretch, and he would need to sign a major-league contract with another team this off-season to prevent another Mark Grudzielanek situation, but the possibility of a draft pick is reason enough to turn down insulting offers for him.)

I should take the opportunity to break down the one trade the Royals did make. Just a week after recalling Mike Aviles from Triple-A, the Royals were able to spin him into Yamaico Navarro and Kendal Volz.

Navarro is a 23-year-old player who could be the guy that they wanted Mike Aviles to be – a true utility infielder capable of playing shortstop, second base, and third base well. Most utility infielders have the rough offensive profile of someone like Alcides Escobar – capable of hitting .250 but with nothing in the way of secondary skills like power or plate discipline. That’s not Navarro.

Twice he’s hit 11 homers in a minor-league season, and Baseball America wrote this offseason that he has “uncommon power for a middle infielder and the potential for 15-20 homers annually.” He also knows how to take a pitch – over the past two seasons, in 138 minor-league games (all in Double-A or Triple-A), he’s drawn 64 walks. Navarro hit .275/.356/.437 in the minors last season, and .258/.362/.469 this season. The Red Sox know how to develop middle infielders with secondary skills – look at Dustin Pedroia and Jed Lowrie – and while Navarro isn’t in their class, he’s not a punch-and-judy guy either. Along with Rey, Yamaico gives the Royals two Navarros who profile as excellent utility players in the majors at the very least.

By himself, Navarro – who was the #12 prospect in the Red Sox system before the season – would have justified the trade. Volz is a worthwhile gamble as well; he was the Sox’ ninth-round pick two years ago, but was a potential first-rounder before a disappointing junior season and got $550,000 to sign. In his first pro season last year, he was hittable but walked just 14 guys in 118 innings. Moved to the bullpen this year, he’s got 56 strikeouts and 12 walks in 51 innings. He’s probably a seventh-inning reliever in the end, but he’s more than just an organizational guy.

Last year, the Royals traded Scott Podsednik, Jose Guillen, Kyle Farnsworth, and Rick Ankiel for six players. Aside from Tim Collins, Navarro and Volz are both better than any of those guys. For Mike Aviles, that’s a nice haul.

Granted, Aviles ought to have some real value – he’s under club control for three more years after this one. But he’s already 30 years old; the fact that he’s under club control when he’s 33 probably isn’t worth all that much. Aviles has value on the bench, but his defense the last couple of years has been decidedly sub-par, and he has a .295 OBP since his rookie season. The Royals have moved on from him, and I fully expected them to release him this off-season if they couldn’t find a taker. Getting two legitimate prospects for him allows Moore to bring the Mike Aviles Era in for an easy landing.

Over the last year or so, I have developed a bit of a reputation as a Dayton Moore apologist, which I find hysterical – apparently it’s not good form to acknowledge that Moore has done some things well, or to acknowledge that Cabrera and Francoeur, two player acquisitions that were mocked mercilessly over the winter, have turned out to be two of the best free-agent signing any team made last off-season.

Actually, my reputation as an apologist might have started when I complimented Moore on the Cabrera signing at the time. I also refused to join in the whistles and catcalls when Francoeur was signed; while I was ambivalent about the deal, that was less because of Francoeur than because the fact that his 2012 option was a mutual one limited the Royals’ upside. (I think that observation has born out – if the Royals had a club option for $4 million next year, they would almost certainly exercise it, and that would obviate the need for a long-term deal.)

I’m sure my breakdown of the trade deadline will not change that perception. Am I disappointed by the lack of trades? Most certainly. But I’m disappointed at the market, not at the Royals’ decision-making.

The lack of movement at the deadline allows the Royals to kick the can down the road. Moore still has some decisions to make, and he still has the opportunity to screw things up badly – whether it’s signing Francoeur to a long-term deal, or failing to resolve the Lorenzo Cain situation. If and when that happens, I’ll voice my displeasure then. But criticizing Moore because his lack of moves opens up the possibility that he might screw up in the future – that strikes me as putting the cart before the horse. If that makes me an apologist, so be it.

P.S. For those of you who aren’t faithful listeners, “The Baseball Show With Rany & Joe” covered the trade deadline in two parts this weekend. So if you want my take on all the trades made around the game, please download the show from iTunes, or you can listen online with Part 1 here and Part 2 here.

Royals Today: 7/22/11.

Maybe it’s not The Most Wonderful Time of the Year, but trading season has to rank in the top five. The rumors, the intrigue, the possibility that some GM will lose his mind and trade Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano, or agree to pick up Matt Morris’ salary…if you’re a baseball fan, you have to love it. Say what you want about the NFL, but the almost complete lack of trades in that league is a big point in favor of major league baseball.

If you’re a Royals fan, you’re used to the drill – look over the roster, find the guys who are in the last year or two of their contract, and hope the Royals can trade each of them for anything of value. Some days you wind up with Tim Collins; most days you end up with Joselo Diaz or Blake Johnson.

Dayton Moore kicked off the season Wednesday by trading Wilson Betemit, who he evidently just realized was still on the roster. (Forgive him for not noticing – since Moustakas was called up on June 9th, Betemit had all of 23 at-bats in six weeks.) The Tigers were high on the list of teams looking to upgrade at third base, so it was a natural fit.

In return, the Royals got left-handed swingman Antonio Cruz, and catcher Julio Rodriguez. From Dayton Moore’s comments, you’d think Rodriguez was the more important player in the deal. He has a strong arm (he’s thrown out 36% of attempted basestealers in his career), and is hitting .283/.325/.354 in the Florida State League. He’s a prospect in the sense that he’ll probably make the majors, but his upside seems to be that of a defense-first backup catcher. He has no power – five home runs in 276 professional games – and swings at everything; his career high in walks is 14. If he were 20 years old – as the Royals mistakenly stated in their press release – I would be higher on him, but he’s actually 21, and turns 22 in a few weeks.

And as future backup catchers go, I don’t think Rodriguez profiles even as well as Manny Pina, who the Royals acquired in their trade of hard-throwing bad boy Danny Gutierrez two years ago. At the time, Pina was just a few months older than Rodriguez is now, and he was hitting .259/.313/.393 in Double-A. Pina has more power than Rodriguez, and was not quite as impatient at the plate. Pina has spent all of this season in Omaha, and has mysteriously started drawing walks at an unprecedented rate – he has 25 walks in just 160 at-bats, with a line of .238/.354/.381. (He’s sort of the Matt Treanor of Triple-A.)

Pina is already on the 40-man roster, and would be the obvious call-up if Treanor or Brayan Pena got hurt. He just turned 24. I don’t really see what Rodriguez brings to the table that the Royals can’t get from Pina, so I don’t see his acquisition as anything more than organizational depth.

Cruz is the more interesting player, if for no other reason than 1) he’s left-handed and 2) he’s 19. His numbers are nice but not spectacular; he’s got a 3.11 ERA in the Midwest League, with 68 hits, 28 walks, and 58 Ks in 75 innings. The scouting reports I’ve seen suggest that he typically throws 89-91, but can dial it up to 93-94 on occasion, and he has a developing curveball. He’s been a reliever for most of his (brief) pro career, and unless he adds velocity it’s unlikely he’ll be more than a reliever in the end. But he’s young enough that you can dream on him.

Neither player was listed among the Tigers’ Top 30 Prospects by Baseball America before the season, but I wouldn’t make too much of that. Young players, particularly Latin American players who don’t have a draft status to trumpet, can have their prospect status change quickly. Kelvin Herrera barely made the Royals’ Top 30 this winter, and now he’s clearly a Top 15 guy – granted, he was hurt most of the last two years, but no one expected him to be this dominant this quickly. Yordano Ventura wasn’t in the Royals Top 30 before the 2010 season; a year later he was in 12th in a loaded system. Rey Navarro wasn’t in the Royals’ Top 30 this past winter, and you could make a case for him in the Royals’ Top 10 today. I don’t think either Cruz or Rodriguez have made that kind of jump, but I’d expect Cruz at least to vie for a spot in the Royals’ Top 30.

It’s not a great haul, in all honesty. But having gone out of their way to destroy Betemit’s value by not trading him before Moustakas was called up, this was probably about the best the Royals could do. (I love this quote: As one club official noted: “His value wasn’t increasing here.” Really, Sherlock? It only took you six weeks to figure that out?) Despite sitting on the bench for the last six weeks, Betemit was just slightly underneath the bar for Type B free agent compensation, at least according to MLB Trade Rumors’ calculations. (Actually, MLB Trade Rumors just came out with their most updated numbers Tuesday, and Betemit somehow moved up the chart despite being on the bench, and is now projected to be a Type B player.)

If Betemit plays every day for Detroit and/or plays well, he’s almost certainly going to earn them a supplemental first-round pick after the season. If that’s the case, than Detroit wins the trade; I’d rather have the draft pick than the two guys the Royals picked up. Frankly, even if Betemit doesn’t, the Tigers should win the trade. Brandon Inge hit .177/.242/.242 for Detroit before he was designated for assignment (just four months into a two-year contract). Betemit should be a substantial upgrade if he hits like he did for the Royals this year. If he hits like he did for the Royals last year, it’s an enormous upgrade.

But there was no way Betemit was going to earn Type B status while picking splinters out of his butt. Better something than nothing, even if “something” isn’t all that great. As with the David DeJesus trade, though, the Royals didn’t even get the value of the compensatory draft pick in return for Betemit.

We can now close the book on the Wilson Betemit era in Kansas City: 141 games, a .290/.362/.468 line, and 16 homers and 35 doubles in just 479 at-bats. Betemit has the fifth-highest OPS+ (129) in Royals history among players with 500 or more plate appearances. Not bad for a minor-league invite who got paid less than $1 million total. But I can’t shake the feeling that he could have been a lot more valuable to the Royals if they had tried him in the outfield last season, and tried to sign him to a longer-term deal. And I can’t shake the feeling that he still has a lot of productive seasons left.

- Speaking of Betemit, his replacement hasn’t been faring so well of late. After a three-hit game on July 3rd, Mike Moustakas was hitting a very respectable .290/.372/.362. His power was a little shy, but with nine walks and 10 strikeouts in 19 games, his overall approach seemed, if anything, more advanced than expected.

Moustakas then went on an 0-for-21 slump that ended with a broken-bat single off Justin Verlander in the last game before the All-Star Break. In his first game back, Moose doubled in his second at-bat against Francisco Liriano. He is 0-for-22 since. He has two hits in his last 49 at-bats. Even Tony Pena Jr. is shaking his head.

Shocking as this might be to believe, I’ve seen worse. In fact, I’ve seen worse from another left-handed-hitting 22-year-old rookie third baseman. On April 18th, 1990, this player hit his first career home run – off Roger Clemens. It was the 23rd game of his career, and he finished it with a respectable line of .227/.349/.364. He would not get a hit again until May 11th. He went 0-for-41; someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe that is still the longest hitless stretch by a non-pitcher in the last 30 or 40 years.

He finally ended his slump with a bunt single off of Bret Saberhagen in the fifth inning. (In the eighth inning, with the Royals leading 4-1, he would homer off of Steve Farr, sparking a five-run rally. The more things change…) He would hit .268/.329/.333 the rest of the season, not great, but better than his overall line of .249/.324/.318.

The next season, Robin Ventura hit .284/.367/.442, with 23 homers and 100 RBIs, won a Gold Glove, and got some MVP votes. He was one of the best – and certainly most consistent – third basemen in baseball for the next decade.

The point is: rookies struggle. Even talented rookies struggle. I’m not happy that Moustakas couldn’t buy a hit right now if it was a vowel on “Wheel of Fortune”, but if he’s as talented as we think he is, he’ll get through it. He’s not being overmatched; in those 49 at-bats he’s only struck out 7 times, which is a good ratio even for someone hitting .300. He’s simply not making hard contact, and he’s probably pressing and swinging at pitches he shouldn’t in an effort to end his slump. (He doesn’t have a single walk in that span. Ventura, by comparison, walked 10 times during his 0-for-41 stretch.)

If this goes on much longer, a return trip to Omaha might be therapeutic. But I’d give him at least a few more days to see how he responds. Moustakas has responded well to failure in the past. He’s never failed to this degree before, and never on this big a stage. No one said the major leagues were easy.

- I have barely gone a column without writing about Felipe Paulino ever since he joined the team, but I can’t help it – I still think that the Royals’ fanbase and media have yet to fully appreciate the magnitude of how well he has pitched.

On Sunday against the Twins, Paulino made the mistake of hanging a slider to Jim Thome on a full count. (Side note: Jim Thome is my favorite non-Royals player of all time. He has also hit more home runs against the Royals than any player in history. Go figure.) That was virtually the only mistake Paulino made all day. He threw seven innings, struck out eight batters, and walked only one – and that walk was an intentional pass to Joe Mauer preceding the homer. (Ned Yost, everyone!)

In his previous start on July 5th, Paulino gave up nine hits and three runs in six innings, but walked just two batters and struck out nine.

On June 28th, Paulino struck out seven in seven innings, allowed only one walk (again intentional), but somehow gave up 11 hits and took the loss.

On June 23rd, Paulino pitched eight innings, struck out eight, and walked only one. But he did give up two homers, and five runs, and again took the loss.

In his last four starts, then, Paulino is 1-3 and has a 4.82 ERA, so it’s very easy to miss how well he’s pitched. In his last four starts, Paulino has whiffed 32 batters in 28 innings, and walked 3 batters unintentionally. He’s averaged 7 innings per start, and thrown at least 113 pitches in each start (but never more than 120).

Still not impressed? Paulino has struck out at least 7 batters, and walked no more than 2, in each of his last four starts. In the history of the Kansas City Royals, only two other pitchers have had four consecutive starts with 2 or fewer walks and 7 or more strikeouts. In 1996, Kevin Appier had four straight starts, and in 2009, after starting his season with six shutout innings (with three walks) in his first start, Zack Greinke rolled off five straight starts with 8+ Ks and no more than 2 walks, winning them all.

Since joining the Royals, Paulino has 53 strikeouts and 11 unintentional walks in 55 innings. Missing bats is nothing new for him; throwing strikes is. He has cut his walk rate nearly in half since joining the Royals.

His 3.60 ERA is not as impressive as his K/BB numbers, because he continues to give up hits at a higher rate than you’d expect – he’s allowed more than a hit an inning with Kansas City. His BABIP since joining the Royals is .340, and that’s actually an improvement on his career mark of .353. That’s both ridiculous and unsustainable. In the last 50 years, the highest career BABIP by a pitcher with 500 innings or more is .331, by Glendon Rusch. Paulino has spent almost his entire career with bad teams, pitching in front of bad defenses, and prior to joining the Royals pitched in two very good hitters’ parks. His performance on balls in play is a matter of luck. His ability to miss bats is very real, and his ability to throw strikes, while new, does not appear to be a fluke.

If Mike Montgomery had debuted on May 27th and had fashioned the stat line that you see from Paulino, Royals nation would be giddy with excitement over what’s to come. Montgomery has been a disappointment, but in his place the Royals have conjured Paulino out of thin air. He’s under contract through 2014, so we’ll have the chance to enjoy him for a while.

At the BP event, while talking about how the team uses statistical and scouting information together, Jin Wong mentioned Paulino as a guy who – going back to last winter – both sides agreed was someone worth gambling on. The scouts liked his fastball velocity and swing-and-miss slider; the stats guys liked his peripheral numbers. (They may also have liked the fact that in 2009, even while his ERA was over 6, Paulino induced batters to miss 27% of the pitches they swung at, compared to the major-league average of 20%.)

I thought this nugget of information was interesting, because the last time the Royals gambled on a player who the scouts and stats guys agreed on was a potential diamond in the rough, his name was Joakim Soria. Paulino may be Dayton Moore’s best free talent find since Soria. If he continues to pitch as well as he has, and stays in the rotation, he may wind up being even more valuable than Soria.

(Late update: Rustin Dodd has an excellent review of Paulino’s emergence in this morning’s edition of the Star.)

- This list, I think, explains a lot:

MOST PLATE APPEARANCES AS A KANSAS CITY ROYAL, NO HOME RUNS

Chris Getz: 592

Jason Kendall: 490

Carl Taylor: 363

Bobby Floyd: 356

Dick Drago: 327

The bottom three guys on this list all finished their Royals career by 1974 (and Drago, of course, was a pitcher.) After 35 years, apparently the Royals felt that extreme punch-and-judy hitters had come back into fashion.

Look, saying that I don’t think Chris Getz is a good ballplayer doesn’t mean that I don’t appreciate his talents. He’s a good basestealer, the best defensive second baseman on the roster (which isn’t the same as saying he’s a good defender), he’s got good bat control and is heady and gritty and all that.

And contrary to what Lee Judge might think, saying that I don’t think Getz is as good a player as Billy Butler doesn’t mean I have asthma* and eat pop-tarts and live with my mom. (Lee, let me present a friendly challenge: name me one well-known statistical analyst, or prominent Royals blogger, that remotely fits the stereotype you’ve presented. Just one. I’ll happily donate $100 to a charity of your choosing if you can.)

*: I don’t have asthma, but what if I did? Is it okay to make fun of people with asthma now?

If you want to know why I think Chris Getz isn’t a particularly good major-league player, look at that list above. Yes, the little things matter. But big things matter more; if they didn’t, they’d be the little things. And the biggest thing a position player can do on the field is hit a home run. Getz may do the little things well. But more than any other player in Royals history, he has shown a complete inability to do the big things.

Meanwhile, Johnny Giavotella is hitting .340/.394/.485 in Omaha. Moreover, as he did last year (when he hit over .370 after the All-Star Break in Double-A), Giavotella is getting better as the season goes along. Since June 1st, Giavotella is hitting .401 and slugging .615. Just in the month of June, Giavotella hit 14 doubles and four homers. In his entire Royals career, going back to the beginning of last season, Getz has 14 doubles and two triples.

I don’t know what the Royals are waiting for. They don’t need keep playing Getz just to justify the Mark Teahen trade – they’ve already won the trade, if for no other reason than that they weren’t the ones who then signed Teahen to a 3-year, $15 million deal. Getz isn’t the worst player in baseball – we’re not talking about Yuniesky Betancourt here. But the Royals have a better, younger player just waiting by the phone. It’s time to make it ring.

Trade Time.

First off, thanks to everyone who came out to the Baseball Prospectus event at Kauffman Stadium on Saturday. It was great to meet all of you. Thanks to Kevin Goldstein and Craig Brown and Jeff Euston for being there, thanks to Joe Hamrahi for setting the event up, and thanks to the Royals’ Jin Wong and John Williams for speaking to the group and answering a raft of questions. Their answers were carefully constructed to not be particularly revealing – and I would expect nothing less from them – but the mere fact that someone like Williams (a Yale grad who got his master’s in atmospheric science from MIT) works for the Royals is revealing enough.

As hard as this may be to believe, the Royals may actually be ahead of the curve on statistical analysis now – at least with the new frontier of Pitch f/x data. (One piece of info Jin Wong revealed that surprised me – the Royals have paid to have Pitch f/x equipment installed at Northwest Arkansas, and will likely be doing the same in Omaha at some point soon.) The Royals are also having Field f/x equipment installed at Kauffman Stadium soon – which will give data on the movements of every player on the field on every pitch, allowing teams to determine how quick a first step a fielder gets, how quickly he gets from Point A to Point B, etc.

None of this data is going to be public, unfortunately. But the Royals have the data, and between Williams and Mike Groopman (a former Baseball Prospectus intern) on staff, I have no doubt that they’ll be mining the depths of it. Whether the baseball decision-makers will listen to their analysts is the big question, and one I can’t answer. But it’s reassuring to know that the Royals not only have the data, they have the data guys.

And I can’t say enough about the fanbase. On Friday night, the Royals drew 34,563 paying fans to the ballpark. Yes, there were fireworks, and it was Buck Night, but…still. The Cleveland Indians, who were in first place, drew 25,835 to their stadium the same night. The Royals drew nearly 35,000 fans to watch a team on pace to finish last for the sixth time in eight years. If this team ever turns around, Kauffman Stadium is going to be rocking every single night. The Royals’ incompetence masks the fact that Kansas City is a great baseball town.

The Indians are an instructive example. From 1969 to 1993, Cleveland went 25 straight years without ever finishing higher than fourth place in the standings. In 1994 they opened a new ballpark and started to win. On June 12, 1995, the Indians sold out the ballpark; they would sell out every game they played from that day through Opening Day, 2001, a then-record 455 sellouts in a row. I don’t think that Kauffman Stadium will be a sellout for five-plus years – for one thing, I don’t think they’ll win five straight division titles, and a renovated Kauffman is not quite the same as a brand-new Jacobs Field. But I could see 30,000 at the ballpark every night.

In the meantime, the trade deadline is barely two weeks away, and as usual the Royals are sellers. A month ago, there was so much parity in the sport that it looked like this might be a seller’s market, as very few teams were definitively out of contention and the supply of impact players at the deadline looked small. But there has been a lot of separation in the last few weeks; 13 of 30 teams are now at least 8.5 games out of a playoff spot. So the Royals will have to compete with a raft of other teams in marketing their wares.

Nevertheless, the Royals have a number of veterans who could help a contender, certainly more (and better) veterans than they had last year. Scott Podsednik, Rick Ankiel, Kyle Farnsworth, and Jose Guillen collectively brought back Tim Collins and a bunch of organizational filler. This year, the Royals have the talent to do far better – the question is whether they have the market. Here, in no particular order, are the guys that should be on the auction block this month.

Melky Cabrera: I really liked the signing of Cabrera this winter, which among Royals fans was a deeply unpopular opinion, particularly after the Royals acquired Lorenzo Cain in the Greinke trade just a few days later. The main reasons I liked the Cabrera signing – aside from my belief that he had bounceback potential – were that 1) he was only signed for $1.25 million; and 2) he’s under club control for 2012 as well.

Cabrera has turned out to be a better player than even I expected; he’s hitting .295/.333/.456 with an outstanding OPS+ of 119 (his previous career high was only 95). He’s even stolen 12 bases in 14 attempts. He’s also leading the AL in at-bats and plate appearances. He’s still just 26 years old. For the money, Cabrera might be the best free-agent signing of Dayton Moore’s career.

His success actually complicates the issue of trading him. A few days ago, when I told a friend that I expected Cabrera to be moved before long, he suggested that the Royals could move Cabrera to left field for next year, Gordon to right, and put Cain in center. It was actually the first time I had even considered the idea that Cabrera could be a viable solution for the Royals in 2012. As well as he is hitting, Cabrera is a poor defensive centerfielder. Moving him to a corner and letting Cain (or some combination of Cain and Jarrod Dyson) take over in center next year would be a huge defensive upgrade. And if Cabrera continues to hit as well as he has, he’ll have more than enough bat for a corner outfield spot.

I still consider that to be a suboptimal outcome. Cabrera’s performance at the plate might represent genuine, long-lasting improvement. But if it isn’t, he’ll be useless in an outfield corner, and the Royals simply have to make room for one of their centerfield prospects. The optimal outcome is that some contender will look at Cabrera’s performance, his defensive versatility – he should be even more appealing to a team that needs a corner outfielder – his salary, and the fact that he’s a 15-month, not a 3-month solution, and pay accordingly. In an efficient market, Cabrera should have the most trade value of any of the Royals’ veteran players. If he can’t bring back a borderline Top 100 prospect, he should at least fetch a pair of moderate-upside lottery tickets in the low minors.

But if we’ve learned anything from the trade market these last few years, it’s that the pendulum has swung too far the other way. Twenty years ago, Larry Andersen could get you Jeff Bagwell. Twelve years ago, Heathcliff Slocumb was worth Derek Lowe and Jason Varitek. But last year, two-and-a-half years of Danny Haren only brought back a couple of Grade B prospects and the desiccated remains of Joe Saunders. Teams have become ridiculously protective – too protective, in my opinion – of their prospects. In the case of some of the other guys on this list, the Royals’ best option is to take the best offer. In Cabrera’s case, though, if the right offer doesn’t come along, the Royals are best served keeping him.

Potential destinations: The Legend of Sam Fuld is progressing towards an unhappy ending in Tampa Bay, although I worry that the Rays value defense too much to settle for Cabrera, even in left field. (Besides, they could just bring Desmond Jennings once he heals from his hand injury.) The White Sox are all-in for this year, so if Moore is okay trading Cabrera within the division – which I doubt he is – Cabrera would be a big upgrade over Alexis Rios (.213/.262/.309) in centerfield. The Angels are rumored to be interested in the Pirates’ Garrett Jones, and Cabrera is better than Jones in almost every way, so…and finally, there’s Atlanta, where the Braves are stuck with Nate McLouth in center, he of the .225 average and three homers. Cabrera’s first go-round with the Braves didn’t go well; it’s not clear whether they’d consider a return engagement. But you know Moore has Frank Wren on speed dial.

Likelihood he gets traded: 60%

Jeff Francoeur: One of the first questions that was presented to Jin Wong at the BP ballpark event was, “Why do so many of the contracts the Royals give to free agents include mutual options?” While Wong answered the question frankly – the Royals always start by asking for a club option, but they’re willing to compromise to a mutual option during negotiations – it still left unanswered the bigger question, which is, “what’s the point?” It seems like in any mutual option, either the player will decline if he had a good year – and can get more money elsewhere – or the team will decline if he didn’t.

But in Francoeur’s case, I wonder if he isn’t threading the thin line between “exceeding expectations” and “not meeting expectations”. Francoeur, as Joe Posnanski pointed out a few days ago, is hitting almost exactly at his career averages. The difference is that offense is down so significantly that his performance is considerably more valuable than it was three years ago. Add in solid defense in right field, and an exceptionally accurate throwing arm – he’s reached double digits in outfielder assists in every season of his career – and he’s a viable everyday player. He’s making $2.5 million this year, and his mutual option for next year is worth about $4.25 million. If Francoeur plays as well in 2012 as he has in 2011, he’s probably worth the contract – but just barely, which means it would be a good deal for both sides.

That assumes that he can maintain his seasonal performance, and given that he’s hitting .243/.288/.377 since May 2nd, and his history of hot starts followed by cold middles and ends, that’s quite an assumption. Francoeur’s defense and ability to crush left-handed pitching would make him a nice fit for many a contender’s bench, much like he helped the Rangers in that role last season. Trading Francoeur now wouldn’t preclude the Royals from bringing him back next season, given that he could always opt out of his portion of the option.

I think it would be absurd for the Royals to keep both Cabrera and Francoeur, but I also think it would be surprising if they traded both. Francoeur is unlikely to bring anything substantial in a trade – the Rangers gave the Mets the immortal Joaquin Arias for him last season – and if that’s all the Royals are being offered, they might as well hold onto him. An additional two months of full-time play will make a decision to bring him back next year much clearer.

Potential Destinations: Any team that’s interested in Cabrera might consider Francoeur as a backup plan. The Phillies have reportedly been looking for a right-handed-hitting outfielder for a while now, and Francoeur would fit them well as a platoon outfielder/pinch-hitter vs. lefties/clubhouse guy. His success with Texas last year ought to add to his appeal.

Likelihood he gets traded: 25%

Wilson Betemit: I’ve already discussed how ridiculous it is that Betemit is still on the roster. He’s probably the player most likely to be traded this month, because – now that he’s on the bench – he won’t earn free-agent compensation if the Royals keep him, and his ability to switch-hit, play both corners, and come off the bench gives him broad appeal. He’ll earn less than $500,000 the rest of the season. He should fetch something interesting, whether it’s a teenage arm with projection or a toolsy hitter with age on his side, who if everything breaks right could be the next Rey Navarro.

Potential Destinations: Both the White Sox (Brent Morel/Mark Teahen) and Tigers (Brandon Inge) have gotten next to no production from their third basemen this season. In particular, the Tigers’ lineup leans heavily to the right side, so picking up Betemit’s switch-hitting bat has additional tactical use for them. This would require Moore to be willing to trade in the division. In Betemit’s case, since he’s a free agent at year’s end, I don’t see why he wouldn’t, but you never know.

The Brewers are hanging in the playoff chase even though Casey McGehee has turned back into a pumpkin. The Brewers’ farm system is barren, but it’s not like Betemit was going to fetch a premium prospect anyway – there’s someone in that farm system the Brewers can trade for him. Like the Tigers, Milwaukee needs some balance in their lineup – Prince Fielder and Nyjer Morgan are their only left-handed bats in the lineup against right-handed pitchers.

The Cardinals would be a good fit, assuming they can forgive Betemit for breaking Albert Pujols’ arm – with his ability to switch-hit and play both corners, Betemit’s versatility makes him the perfect Tony LaRussa bench player. And if the Pirates decide to be buyers instead of sellers, Betemit would be a big upgrade over Pedro Alvarez or Brandon Wood or whatever prospect bust currently mans third base.

Likelihood he gets traded: 85%

Jeff Francis: On the surface, Francis doesn’t appear to be pitching all that well – he’s 3-10 with a 4.60 ERA, and opponents are hitting .289 against him. He’s better than that. He’s had fantastic control – he’s walked only 22 batters in 19 starts. His strikeout rate (just 56 Ks in 115 innings) is the lowest of his career, but with a new offensive ice age upon us, there’s more margin for error for a pitch-to-contact guy like Francis than there was a few years ago.

Francis is far more dependent on his defense than the average pitcher. For all the hype given to Alcides Escobar this season, the Royals’ defense as a whole is still lousy – they rank 28th in the majors in defensive efficiency, ahead of only the Cubs and Astros. Francis would look a lot better pitching in front of a strong defense – which most contenders have. He’s managed to stay healthy all season, and has gone at least 6 innings in 14 of his 19 starts, including 10 of his last 12. He’s also pitching much better of late – in his last four starts he’s allowed 21 hits in 24 innings, and walked just two batters against 13 strikeouts.

He’s not worth a heavy ransom, but he has the ability to take the ball every fifth day, throw strikes, and there’s still some upside here as he moves farther away from his shoulder surgery. He strikes me as someone who would also benefit greatly from a move to the inferior, i.e. National, league.

Potential Destinations: If the Reds decide to go for it this year – and despite being in fourth place, they’re the best NL Central team on paper – Francis would make a ton of sense. Their fifth starter at the moment is Dontrelle Willis, and if that’s not a cry for help, I don’t know what is. Francis’ groundball tendencies would play well in the bandbox that is the Great American Ballpark, and the Reds have a fantastic defense –Scott Rolen, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, and Drew Stubbs are all elite defenders – which will make Francis look a lot better.

Likelihood he gets traded: 40%

Bruce Chen: In some ways, Chen is similar to Francis – they’re both left-handed starters with a checkered injury history, and neither of them can break 90 anymore. And in some other ways, Chen is quite different. While Francis is more of a groundball pitcher who throws strikes and hopes for double plays, Chen is an extreme flyball pitcher who succeeds by nibbling and never giving in. And unlike Francis, Chen has pitched very well over the last two seasons, at least by traditional metrics.

Since the start of last season, Chen has thrown 206 innings, and in that span he’s 17-10 (with the Royals!) with a 3.98 ERA. He’s allowed 74 unintentional walks, and struck out 138 – his strikeout rate is a little below-average, but much better than you’d expect for a guy with his velocity. He’s allowed 25 homers, which is an acceptable rate.

Since the beginning of 2010, Francis is 7-16 with a 4.79 ERA, and yet advanced metrics will tell you that Francis has actually pitched better than Chen over the last two years. Francis’ xFIP, which is basically ERA stripped of all the luck, was 3.79 last year and 4.01 this year. Chen’s numbers are 4.79 and 4.45.

In the end, I suspect Chen and Francis have roughly the same amount of trade value – they’re roughly comparable in terms of performance, they’re making roughly the same amount of money, and they’re both free agents at the end of the year. While I could see both getting traded, I suspect the Royals will want to hedge their bets by keeping one around in case they want to re-sign him this winter. I would probably lean towards keeping Chen, simply because I worry that Francis’ shoulder is a ticking time bomb. (Chen is a Tommy John survivor, which isn’t nearly as worrisome.) But I certainly wouldn’t go out of my way to bring back either pitcher, and if a decent offer is made, I’d happily move both of them.

Potential destinations: Any team interested in Francis will likely be interested in Chen, with the caveat that Chen is more of a fit for a pitchers’ park. The problem is that far fewer contenders seem to be desperate for starting pitching – or at least non-elite pitching – than you’d think. This is a pitcher’s era, and it shows in the rotations of good teams. The Diamondbacks, maybe? But they play in a good home run park either. Chen’s 3.56 ERA simply isn’t as special as it would have been three years ago, and there may not be much of a market for him.

Likelihood he gets traded: 20%

A reliever – pick one: You would think that the Royals would be looking at trade offers on Joakim Soria in a new light now. Much like having a heart attack and a near-death experience might cause you to change your eating habits, watching Soria’s career go through a similar near-death experience might have reminded the Royals of the fickleness of relievers and encouraged them to trade Soria for the best possible package.

I still don’t think that’s likely. While Soria has quieted some of the concerns about his performance, he hasn’t silenced them yet, and the offers are no doubt less generous than they would have been six months ago. And I think that having Soria as a security blanket for the ninth gives the Royals the breathing room they need to get creative with their other relievers – specifically, it gives them the cover to move Aaron Crow back into the rotation, either late this year or next year.

The irony is that Soria’s repertoire and history suggest that he would be far more suited for the rotation than Crow. But when Soria arrived on the scene in 2007-2008, the Royals had few good options for the closer’s role, and meanwhile they had a healthy Gil Meche and Zack Greinke in the rotation – and guys like Kyle Davies and Brian Bannister and Luke Hochevar looked better then than they do now. Today, the Royals have arguably their deepest bullpen ever, and the worst rotation in the majors, and as a result the Royals are not condemning Crow to a lifetime in relief like they did with Soria.

Maybe I’ve been so beaten down by the Royals that I’ve developed Stockholm Syndrome, but I don’t really mind if they keep Soria. As overrated as the closer’s role is, if having Soria around frees the Royals to use their other relievers in a more optimal fashion, then there are fringe benefits to keeping him. And while he is underpaid, he’s not nearly as underpaid as he was a year or two ago – he makes $4 million this year, but options for $6 million in 2012, $8 million in 2013, $8.75 in 2014 are only modest bargains.

That said, I absolutely think the Royals should trade a reliever, and maybe two. Relievers are probably the most commonly traded commodities this time of year, partly because there are so many of them, but also because virtually every contender could use help somewhere in their bullpen. The Brewers were so desperate for relief help that they just traded for Francisco Rodriguez and the ticking time bomb of his vesting $17.5 million option for next year. Suitors are lining up for Heath Bell like ABC had just announced he was the next Bachelorette.

The thing is, all the big names on the trade market are guys who are free agents at the end of the year, or next year at the latest. And they’re all guys making a market salary. That’s the way the market works, obviously; teams out of contention are willing to trade players who are no longer going to be with the team by the time they’re ready to contend anyway.

But what if a team is willing to trade a reliever – a good reliever – who won’t be a free agent for five or six years? And what if he’s a reliever who’s making the major-league minimum salary? Don’t you think a contender would be willing to pay a higher price for such a reliever than a three-month rental? What would you rather have – a half-season of Heath Bell (who’s making $7.5 million this year), or five-and-a-half seasons of Greg Holland, who’s making $400,000 this year and won’t even be arbitration eligible until 2014?

The Royals, more than at any point in their history, have a true excess of relievers on their roster. They can afford to trade a reliever, even a rookie reliever who won’t be a free agent until 2016 or 2017. Consider:

Holland, a rookie, has allowed 4 runs in 26 innings, with a ridiculous 32-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Louis Coleman, a rookie, has a 1.97 ERA and has allowed 18 hits in 32 innings. He also has 39 strikeouts and 10 unintentional walks.

Blake Wood, a sophomore, has a 2.89 ERA in 37 innings. He has 33 strikeouts and 10 unintentional walks. (Late note: scratch Wood from this discussion after last night’s meltdown, when he threw just five of 20 pitches for strikes. His ERA is now 3.82; his K/BB ratio is 33 to 13.)

That’s three guys, two of whom have ERAs under 2 and more than 3 times as many strikeouts as walks, and all of whom are under club control for at least five years. And all three guys function as middle relievers; the Royals already have a closer and a set-up man in place.

That’s a lot of freaking talent for the middle innings of a ballgame. (And I’m not even including Tim Collins, who by virtue of being left-handed is a rarer commodity and one worth keeping.) It’s also sort of superfluous, particularly for a team with as many needs as the Royals have.

Furthermore, the Royals have yet more bullpen arms that are already pushing for an opportunity. Right-hander Kelvin Herrera (1.64 ERA, 49 Ks, 5 BBs in 44 innings) has been one of the breakout stars of the system, and was named to the Futures Game on Sunday (granted, he took the loss). Left-hander Kevin Chapman, the Royals’ fourth-round pick last year, has struck out 64 batters in 41 innings. Both are in Double-A right now, and will probably be ready by this time next year. In the meantime, well, the Royals are still paying Robinson Tejeda $1.55 million to pitch in Omaha, and his fastball seems to have come back – he has 26 strikeouts in 24 innings, against just six walks.

Frankly, they could give Vinny Mazzaro the last spot in the bullpen and it wouldn’t have a material impact on the team’s performance – we’re talking about the seventh reliever on the team, a guy whose job will solely be to pitch in games whose outcome has already been decided.

It would be an incredibly unconventional move for a team that is building for the future to trade a young player. But in this case, it is absolutely the right one. The Royals need to shift their priorities from stockpiling talent to arranging that talent in the mold of a contending team. The Royals have more relief talent than they need. They have a need for more talent in their starting rotation and in up-the-middle offensive players. This is the perfect time for them to trade from a position of strength to a position of weakness.

It will never happen, of course.

Potential destinations: Virtually every contending team in baseball.

Likelihood one gets traded: 5%

Others: Matt Treanor has value, as he’s given the Royals exactly what Jason Kendall was supposed to give them – enough OBP skills to make up for a lack of power, and a veteran catcher to help develop both Brayan Pena and the pitching staff – at a fraction of the cost. The Royals may want to bring back Treanor as Pena’s caddy again next year, and the only replacement for Treanor in-house would be Manny Pina, so I don’t see a trade as being likely. (Although I’d be in favor of it – as good as Treanor has been this year, this is him at his absolute best, and I’d rather scour the bargain bin again than expect a repeat performance.)

Chris Getz might be traded, in the unlikely event that a contending team has a pressing need for a second baseman who makes up for his complete lack of power with a .320 OBP. Billy Butler is a perennial subject of trade discussion, but aside from the fact that the Royals would be selling low, he’s not the kind of player who gets traded mid-season. The Royals would only trade Butler for guaranteed help in the starting rotation, and “guaranteed” means “already established in the majors”. A team in contention isn’t about to rob Peter to pay Paul. Mike Aviles has been mentioned as a trade candidate; he’s hitting .303/.325/.597 in Omaha, with nine homers in 30 games. Having worked tirelessly to destroy his trade value, Dayton Moore may finally cash him in for pennies on the dollar, but you’re not getting anything of value for a 30-year-old in Triple-A. Kyle Davies has good stuff, and he has the stuff to win 15 games in the majors, and he has good stuff, and if you’re laughing right now, you clearly don’t work in the Royals’ front office.

Conclusion: In researching possible destinations for the Royals’ most appealing veteran players, I was really struck by just how few contending teams have a pressing need at the positions the Royals can help them fill. That was even before I read this article. I still think the Royals will be aggressive in marketing their players; I’m just a little pessimistic that they’ll be able to trade all of them, or even most of them. Betemit seems like a no-brainer, simply because he’s seen as more of a super-utility guy than an everyday player, so even teams without a pressing hole will have interest. But beyond him, there are no sure things. If the Royals can move Betemit and Cabrera or Francoeur – they have to open an outfield slot for Lorenzo Cain, now hitting .319/.383/.535 in Omaha – anything else is gravy.

A lot can happen in the next two weeks; a starting pitcher might go down and a team that thought it was set suddenly isn’t. But right now, it looks like the Royals are unlikely to get more than a marginal prospect for Chen or Francis, if they’re able to trade them at all.

Double-A Scouting Report.

As many of you know, I’m in Kansas City this weekend to attend the Royals series. While I’ve spent most of the last two days doing a lot of media engagements – including my first-ever Kansas City TV appearance on the pre-game show today – tomorrow is dedicated to the fans. We’re having our first-ever Baseball Prospectus event at Kauffman Stadium tomorrow; while it’s sold out, if you happen to be at the game, feel free to stop by the right field stands in front of Rivals restaurant and say hi. I’ll be the guy wearing the 90s-era gray Royals cap.

I figure I owe you guys a column, and since the alternative is paying more attention to Kyle Davies on the mound – he’s not fooling anyone, well besides the Royals – here you go.

I have a friend I see who works as a scout for a major-league team, who I see every now and again in a social setting. I happen to run into him on Wednesday, and casually asked if he just got back from the road.

“Actually, I just came back from seeing Northwest Arkansas play,” he said.

So the following is a distillation of his comments about some of the Royals’ prospects. I wasn’t taking notes, so this isn’t a verbatim recollection. But it’s accurate enough.

On Christian Colon: “Yeah, he’s a utility player for me in the end. I guess you could compare him to a guy like Alex Cora – he’ll have a long career in the majors, he’s just not an everyday player.”

On whether, in a perfect world, Colon could turn into someone like Placido Polanco: “The problem with that is that Colon at 22 has the same speed that Polanco has today – and Polanco is 35.”

On Wil Myers: “That guy is going to hit, and hit for power. He’s just 20 years old, and I have no concerns that his doubles are going to turn into homers. [I mentioned some reports that he had a hitch in his swing.] I didn’t see that at all. My only concern with him is that he looked disinterested in the outfield – like maybe he still wants to be a catcher. But he definitely has the arm for right field.”

On Chris Dwyer: “Yeah, he’s a future reliever.”

On Kelvin Herrera: “Great arm. I had his fastball anywhere from 96 to 100. [100?] Yeah, 100. Really good curveball too. On the mound he sort of reminds me of the Nationals' Henry Rodriguez, but with much better control [4 walks in 41 innings this year]. The main issue is that he has control but not command yet. He can pump strikes in there all day, but they’re not always quality strikes.”

On Kevin Chapman: “Like Herrera, the report I filed is that he’s a future bullpen piece in the majors. Good fastball, and a really tight downer curveball. [Note: the report on Chapman when he was drafted was that he was fastball/slider; I don’t know if the curveball is new.] I saw Tim Collins in spring training and put a “50” on him [a 50 on the 20-80 scouting scale means he’s an average major-league player], and I just put a “55” on Chapman.”

On Salvador Perez: “I think he’s better than a backup catcher in the majors, but not quite an everyday guy. He’s a free swinger, and my experience is that guys who are free swingers, even as young as he is, aren’t going to change.  But he has power that pitchers will have to respect.”

On my comparison of Perez to Yadier Molina: “The guy I’d compare him to is someone like Rod Barajas. He’s got a great arm behind the plate and will be a plus defender; I just worry that he’s not disciplined enough to be an above-average hitter.”

Royals Today: Mid-Season Update.

Exactly halfway through the season, the Royals are 33-48, on pace for a 66-96 record, and all you need to know about this franchise is that the Royals have averaged a 66-96 record for the past 10 years. Honestly, a 33-48 record is about where I expected the Royals to be at this point in the season; I predicted that they would win 69 games, but I also expected them to be a better team in the second half of the season. If they pick up the pace even a little, they could win 70 games, something they’ve accomplished just twice in the last decade.

The shape of the team’s performance has to make you skeptical that they can accomplish even that. The Royals started 10-4, which means they’re 23-44 since – they’ve lost essentially two-thirds of their games for the last two-and-a-half months. Not even their annual dose of NL competition has helped; the Royals are 4-11 against NL opponents with this weekend’s series in Colorado left to play. From 2005 to 2010, the Royals were 58-50 in interleague play. In 2005 and 2006, the Royals went 19-17 against NL opponents even though they lost 100 games each season.

So yeah, there’s reason to worry that the Royals might be trending in the wrong direction. Then consider that the Royals have played 47 home games and just 34 games on the road so far. Then remember that the Royals have yet to play the Red Sox or Rays. Another 100-loss season is still in play. On the other hand, the Royals are playing much better than their 33-48 record. They’ve only been outscored by 49 runs all season; take out the Mazzaro game and their run differential is -32. Of their last 13 losses, ten of them have been by one or two runs. A preponderance of close losses is sometimes the fault of a leaky bullpen; in the Royals case it’s simply a matter of having rallies fall a run or two short.

Regardless, this season is less about wins and losses than it is about problems and solutions for 2012 and beyond. On that scoreboard, the Royals are doing a lot better than 33-48. While the well-documented problems with the Royals’ left-handed pitching prospects have people worried about the near future, let’s not forget that a pair of unexpected solutions have also presented themselves.

- Solution #1: Alex Gordon is hitting .293/.363/.479, in a down year for offense. He has 24 doubles, four triples, and nine homers – double those numbers, and you can see how impressive a pace he’s on. Thanks to Gordon, the Royals rank third in all of baseball in OPS from their left fielders, and they lead the AL by a country mile – the Yankees are second with a line of .264/.343/.418.

Gordon has also been a revelation defensively. His range has been fine – not outstanding, but certainly at least average. And his arm, of course, has been an absolute weapon. Gordon has 13 outfield assists in half a season. Thirteen assists is a good full-season total for any outfielder – in left field, it’s fantastic. In fact, Gordon has already tied the all-time Royals record for assists by a left fielder. Assuming my research is accurate, Gordon has tied Lou Piniella (1969) and David DeJesus (2009) with 13 outfield assists from left field. And there’s still half a season left to play.

Most importantly, Gordon has been healthy all season, missing only three games, all of them by manager’s choice. He leads the Royals with 2.8 WAR, and absolutely should be the team’s All-Star representative.

There’s always the chance this is a fluke half-season, but we’re talking about Alex Gordon here – the surprise isn’t that he’s playing so well, but that it took him until his fifth season in the majors to do so. Unlike his outfield mate Jeff Francoeur, Gordon has already shown the ability to fight his way out of a slump:

Opening Day – May 1st: .339/.395/.545

May 2nd – May 19th: .153/.219/.254

May 20th – Today: .315/.395/.521

There was some concern early on in the season that Gordon’s new-found production was coming at the expense of his plate discipline, and that once pitchers exploited his new-found aggressiveness he’d be in trouble. But Gordon’s patience has returned as the season has gone on  – he drew just eight walks in April, but 11 in May, and 14 in June.

In short, there’s every reason to think that Gordon’s performance is for real. Which means there’s every reason for the Royals to start thinking about offering him a long-term contract. The Royals have a policy of not offering contract extensions during the season, and in Gordon’s case I think that’s fine; even I would like to see him keep this performance up for a full season before I’m completely convinced. But if his final numbers are within range of where they are today, then locking up Gordon has to be the Royals #1 off-season priority.

Gordon is under team control for 2012 and 2013 as it is, but locking him for 2014 and 2015 – either through a 4-year deal or a 3-year deal with a club option – is imperative. Gordon will play the 2015 season at the age of 31. He’s a good athlete and takes very good care of his body, so I’m confident he will maintain his peak performance into his early 30s. The Royals have plenty of payroll space and can easily afford the 8-12 million dollars a year (depending on the length of the deal, options, etc.) that it will take to lock him up.

There’s another reason why the Royals need to keep Gordon around for the next several years, one that hardly ever gets talked about: he bats left-handed.

With Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas headlining the Royals’ farm system the last few years, the Royals seemed focused on getting right-handed hitters to protect Hosmer and Moustakas in the lineup. Two days before the Greinke trade, Moore was on radio talking about what they were looking to acquire, and while talking about the up-the-middle positions the Royals were trying to fill (catcher, shortstop, centerfielder), he specifically mentioned a “right-handed-hitting centerfielder”. This is why I took the Greinke rumors so seriously when Bernie’s Crew broke the trade – Lorenzo Cain fit Moore’s stated desire perfectly, and made me think the trade was nearly finalized when Moore was being interviewed.

The problem is that, aside from Hosmer and Moustakas, every other top hitting prospect in the system is right-handed. Alcides Escobar is right-handed. Billy Butler is right-handed. At second base, both Johnny Giavotella and Christian Colon (if he moves there) are right-handed. Salvador Perez is right-handed. Cain is right-handed. Wil Myers is right-handed. Even the low-level prospects with high ceilings, like Cheslor Cuthbert and Brett Eibner, are right-handed. Bubba Starling? Right-handed.

The best hitting prospects in the system who don’t bat right-handed? David Lough, who might be a fourth outfielder in the end. Jarrod Dyson and Derrick Robinson, who might be fifth outfielders in the end. Kila Ka’aihue and Clint Robinson, who are blocked with the Royals and no one takes seriously as prospects anyway. Finally, there’s the suddenly-interesting Rey Navarro, a switch-hitting middle infielder who just got promoted to Double-A the other day. And that’s it – you have to go down to the rookie leagues to find even a borderline prospect who doesn’t bat right-handed.

If you put together a projected Royals lineup for 2013, every hitter in the lineup is right-handed except for Hosmer and Moustakas. And Gordon.

C: Perez (R)

1B: Hosmer (L)

2B: Colon or Giavotella (R)

3B: Moustakas (L)

SS: Escobar (R)

LF: Gordon (L)

CF: Cain (R)

RF: Myers (R)

DH: Butler (R)

All things considered, you’d rather have more left-handed hitters in your lineup than right-handed hitters, simply because most starting pitchers are right-handed, so you’d rather have the platoon advantage more often than not. (Besides, most of the left-handed starting pitchers play for the Royals already.) You can survive with six right-handed hitters in your lineup, but it’s not ideal. Starting seven right-handed hitters is an invitation for abuse – every team in the AL Central will carry some low-slot right-handed specialist with the express purpose of carving up the Royals’ lineup.

There’s two take-home points from this:

1) The Royals need to figure out a lineup that splits up their three left-handed hitters, because it makes absolutely no sense to bat, say, Hosmer and Moustakas back-to-back followed by five right-handed hitters. At the same time, you don’t want any of them batting seventh. When you think about it, having Gordon in the leadoff spot makes a ton of sense. Gordon leads off, Hosmer bats third, Moustakas bats fifth, and you fill in the other guys as needed.

2) The Royals really can’t afford to let Gordon get away in two years.

- Solution #2: Five weeks ago, Felipe Paulino was a 27-year-old journeyman who had been traded for a washed-up veteran (Clint Barmes) and waived in the span of a few months. He had a career 5.93 ERA in the major leagues.

Today, if my life was on the line and I had to pick one Royals starter to win a game for me, Paulino wouldn’t just be my choice – he’d be the only choice.

It’s hard to overstate just how impressive Paulino has been. He entered the game on May 27th just minutes after he arrived at the ballpark to join his new team; he retired 13 of the 14 hitters he faced that night and the Royals won in extra innings. He’s made six starts since, and all of them have been impressive in their own way.

His last two starts may have been his finest work, even though he gave up nine runs in 15 innings. On June 23rd against Arizona, he gave up runs in each of the first four innings – and then retired twelve straight batters from the fifth to the eighth inning before tiring in the ninth. On Tuesday against San Diego, he gave up hits to five of the first eight batters he faced, and allowed three runs in the first two innings. He then pitched five more innings and allowed only an unearned run.

In the two starts, he walked just two batters, while striking out 15. If that’s how he performs when he’s struggling, sign me up for more struggles.

Since joining the Royals, Paulino has thrown 42 innings, and has allowed just 10 walks (one intentional) and two homers, while whiffing 36 batters. His peripherals are even better than his 3.21 ERA, and his ERA is easily the best in the rotation.

And like Gordon, there are very good reasons to think Paulino’s performance isn’t a fluke. That’s because there are very good reasons to think that Paulino’s 5.93 ERA before joining the Royals was the product of terrible luck more than terrible pitching. In 223 career innings, Paulino had walked 90 batters unintentionally – not great, but not terrible – and had struck out 201. He had allowed 32 homers, but he wasn’t a flyball pitcher – his groundball percentage of 42% is about league average.

The bottom line: Paulino’s xFIP – which is basically a measure of what his ERA should have been, given normal luck – was about 4.25. And there was reason to think that he was capable of improving on that mark – his average fastball velocity has been over 95 mph every year of his career. Last year, only Ubaldo Jimenez and Stephen Strasburg threw harder among starting pitchers.

Since joining the Royals, Paulino hasn’t been lucky; it’s just that he’s finally pitched the way you’d expect a man with his stuff to pitch, and his ERA finally reflects the way he has pitched. After barely a month with the Royals, Paulino looks like Dayton Moore’s greatest find since at least Joakim Soria. Oh, and he’s under club control through the 2014 season.

Paulino’s emergence goes a long way towards making amends for the struggles of Mike Montgomery and Chris Dwyer and the injury to John Lamb. Combined with Danny Duffy’s step forward this season, the Royals now have two potential above-average starters for their 2012 rotation. Luke Hochevar drives us crazy, but he’s at least worthy of the #5 starter’s role, with some upside.

There’s a big difference between having three holes in your rotation and two. The Royals need to be aggressive in acquiring an established starting pitcher between now and next spring, whether it’s on the free-agent market (which is incredibly weak, but does include Edwin Jackson, who I like) or on the trade market (which I plan to talk about in a future column.) But Paulino allows the Royals the flexibility of only having to fill one rotation spot with a high-end acquisition, as the remaining rotation spot can either be filled internally (if Mike Montgomery rights himself over the last two months of the season, or if Aaron Crow gets an audition in the rotation and nails it) or externally by means of another low-cost low-upside signing along the lines of Jeff Francis or Bruce Chen.

Meanwhile, the Royals have more relievers than they know what to do with – Nate Adcock is the only guy in the pen who isn’t dealing, and guys like Kelvin Herrera and Kevin Chapman are already dominating in Double-A. The lineup features five obvious solutions (Gordon, Butler, Hosmer, Moustakas, Escobar), and in Giavotella and Cain, the Royals have two major league-ready hitters who could step in tomorrow and provide average production at second base and in centerfield.

I know it’s hard to look past the wreckage of another 95+ loss season. But the Royals are still well positioned to go into 2012 with reasonable expectations of a .500 season, and a shot at contending if everything goes right. They’re still well positioned to ascend to the top of the AL Central in 2013, and stay there a while.

As I write this, the Royals are getting destroyed by Colorado, 9-0. And you know what? It’s still a good day as a Royals fan, because down in Omaha, Mike Montgomery returned to the rotation after skipping a start and responded with 6.2 shutout innings in his best outing of the season. I know things look dim in the here and now. But I’m still convinced that light at the end of the tunnel really is the sun.