tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post5601103161372657039..comments2023-11-02T08:28:08.286-05:00Comments on Rany on the Royals: The Meaning of the Minors, Part 1.Ranyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09713226276377020284noreply@blogger.comBlogger34125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post-36640735592969945232011-03-14T17:33:39.133-05:002011-03-14T17:33:39.133-05:00Great analysis and writing.
On the BA misses in t...Great analysis and writing.<br /><br />On the BA misses in their Top 100 list, please add the name of Brad Radke.<br /><br />I recall drafting Radke for my Roti team the year that the Twins promoted him from AA to the majors rotation.<br /><br />I can still recall reviewing his minor league record, and I was impressed with his loew ERA's, ratios, and especially the lpw walk rates. I was alosBlaineFredhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16860095827947974854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post-80025440878086814212011-03-03T18:33:34.716-06:002011-03-03T18:33:34.716-06:00Each individual player should be evaluated based o...Each individual player should be evaluated based on his own strengths, weaknesses, and overall makeup (moxie), rather than have percentages applied based on previous prospects.<br /><br />It is possible that ALL of the Royals prospects will be busts. It is also possible that ALL of them will be stars. Will it be 30%? Will it be 75%? Who knows?<br /><br />The mental makeup of each player, as David W. Lowehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18057799125396266586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post-56628725555977023322011-03-03T15:29:02.612-06:002011-03-03T15:29:02.612-06:00I got a wager for you. Royals will spend the Mech...I got a wager for you. Royals will spend the Meche money and win the posting rights to Darvish next year. How great would he look along with Montgomery, Lamb, etc to back up all that hitting talent? All you haters can eat it, this time is going to be different.....Royalshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04526160862311648858noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post-70382774894102498902011-03-03T15:03:36.610-06:002011-03-03T15:03:36.610-06:00Here's a question....what would you have done ...Here's a question....what would you have done to help build a winner or done differently than Dayton? And be realistic. For example, there was no way the Royals could have or would have signed Matt Holliday when he was a free agent or Carl Crawford.Michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17250964134282394393noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post-52880137081697840962011-03-03T07:31:07.379-06:002011-03-03T07:31:07.379-06:00You have to be somewhat fair to Hoch and acknowled...You have to be somewhat fair to Hoch and acknowledge the fact that he's a groundball pitcher who has had one of the worst infield defense's in baseball his whole career. If Escobar is as good as advertised, and Getz as well, I would think his numbers would improve dramatically. And once Hosmer is up for good, that'll make a pretty decent infield, as far as defense is concerned. I Michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17250964134282394393noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post-59535195973333624362011-03-02T18:45:24.740-06:002011-03-02T18:45:24.740-06:00My point is that out of that Twins team, Guzman wa...My point is that out of that Twins team, Guzman was the only plus contributor that was under 25. The others all had OPS+ under 100. <br />Out of the players getting the most playing time:<br /><br />Dougie 27 122 OPS+<br />Koskie 28 120<br />Hunter 25 101<br />Lawton 29 119<br />Ortiz 25 106<br />Mays 25 145 ERA+<br />Radke 28 116 <br />Milton 25 106<br />Guardado 131<br /><br />Who will Antonio.https://www.blogger.com/profile/08740155942210835984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post-80985411212299285092011-03-02T18:18:04.208-06:002011-03-02T18:18:04.208-06:00The best leaders lead by doing. Read up on the rec...The best leaders lead by doing. Read up on the recently deceased Richard Winters, a great man. And it's ahwile before the Royals have a strong group of 25-31. And Butler/Soria are the only people that belong in the group. Aviles had one great season, one poor partial season destroyed by injury and an ok 2010 that showed a strong finish (with a weak enough start that it took a great finish to Antonio.https://www.blogger.com/profile/08740155942210835984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post-87387642863716101252011-03-02T12:38:53.830-06:002011-03-02T12:38:53.830-06:00I am a transplant to this area. I guess it is bec...I am a transplant to this area. I guess it is because the Royals have no hope at all that this prospect class is generating such buzz on Ranny's board and all over the interneet. The suprising this is national writers picking it up as the story. <br /><br />I'm glad the cupboard is no longer bare. It will make me happy to root for success for these young prospects but honestly I thinkKennethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04529960966125698328noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post-44723493325665578932011-03-02T07:59:05.839-06:002011-03-02T07:59:05.839-06:00Antonio-By the time 2012-2013 roll around, we will...Antonio-By the time 2012-2013 roll around, we will have Billy Butler, Luke Hochevar, Mike Aviles, Joakim Soria, and who knows who else we might retain or sign as a free agent, in the 25-30 age group. That's plenty of experienced contributors right there.<br /><br />The 2001 Twins had plenty of young guys, and plenty of contributors in the 25-30 age group that you mention. Obviously, the Michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17250964134282394393noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post-50403416457052265112011-03-01T21:39:08.616-06:002011-03-01T21:39:08.616-06:00Terrific stuff.
I question whether historical dat...Terrific stuff.<br /><br />I question whether historical data on prospects is all that probative with respect to 2011 prospects of the Royals or any other team. The statistical sample size is relatviely small, of course the Royals prospect sample size is incredibly small at 9 or 10 top prospects. There also are so many variables that it make comparisions difficult. I think it is just as likelyKansas Cityhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16630367629067743935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post-11861524157884621372011-03-01T19:46:33.246-06:002011-03-01T19:46:33.246-06:00Yes, lets get on to part 2 :)
Drafting and develo...Yes, lets get on to part 2 :)<br /><br />Drafting and developing talent is vital to success in the bigs, but as others (and I) have eluded, we need to acquire FAs.<br /><br />Think Carlos Pena for the Rays or David Ortiz for the Red Sox.<br /><br />Can we do it? I think no.<br /><br />Also, Michael, the cliche is "rife" with talent.Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03565981889694970176noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post-43673898464227596132011-03-01T13:58:52.418-06:002011-03-01T13:58:52.418-06:00Two things:
Building a fantastic farm system does...Two things:<br /><br />Building a fantastic farm system doesn't excuse the excrement he's shoveled us in the time he's been here.<br /><br />And two, recheck your history. This isn't how the Twins/Rays did it. When their farm systems started to graduate, they had a strong core of young veterans to support them, not Melky/Francouer/Francis/Chen. When each team started winning, Antonio.https://www.blogger.com/profile/08740155942210835984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post-27456005185077714622011-03-01T12:32:59.364-06:002011-03-01T12:32:59.364-06:00To Brent:
It seems to me (and in no way do I mean ...To Brent:<br />It seems to me (and in no way do I mean this negatively) the methodology of dividing the prospects by organization was done rather crudely. It simply divides the prospects by teams which in no way takes into account the changing dynamics of an organization. I don't think it is fair to say that the player development for the Royals is the same under GMDM, as it was under Baird, Ryan E.https://www.blogger.com/profile/14267606158264395503noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post-71570986722078509562011-03-01T12:30:59.323-06:002011-03-01T12:30:59.323-06:00This comment has been removed by the author.Ryan E.https://www.blogger.com/profile/14267606158264395503noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post-43073507454356961472011-03-01T10:43:59.591-06:002011-03-01T10:43:59.591-06:00Great points Rany. Social science evidence is alw...Great points Rany. Social science evidence is always very weak (which is why you have to take all studies regarding baseball with a grain of salt as it is never pursuant to a controlled study). Studies regarding drafts, prospects, etc are even weaker because those studies, evaluations are ever-evolving. I remember when Bill James said you should never take a HS pitcher in the first round. christopherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05884974777626791900noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post-76857158354528223872011-03-01T10:14:28.970-06:002011-03-01T10:14:28.970-06:00Podcast was interestingPodcast was interestingKennethhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04529960966125698328noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post-46848133842978718442011-03-01T10:01:38.913-06:002011-03-01T10:01:38.913-06:00Randy,
New to your blog. Great insight. Some time...Randy,<br />New to your blog. Great insight. Some time can you do a nice mind numbing blog on all the catagories of stats that you use and what they mean, our (your) very own baseball jargon referance catalog. <br />Also in one of your blogs you were talking about developing your site. jnimon.com is a guy who does great work (no not my company). Highly recomended from one baseball geek to ianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01936490677906290736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post-22397227805084233362011-03-01T09:57:37.139-06:002011-03-01T09:57:37.139-06:00So the question for me is, which ones are gonna be...So the question for me is, which ones are gonna be busts and which ones end up being successes?<br /><br />My guess for busts are Montgomery, Dwyer, and Odorizzi. Not that I think they don't look good, but compared to the other six, they'd be the one's I'd keep an eye on. Montgomery has already had some arm issues, Odorizzi is the furthest away (and therefore more likely to have Jasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15018316150047880441noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post-4122089314312900782011-03-01T09:19:10.717-06:002011-03-01T09:19:10.717-06:00Big Hatt-How is it difficult to understand? Just ...Big Hatt-How is it difficult to understand? Just 4.5 years ago, Moore took over a team that not only sucked at the big league level, but had almost nothing in the minor leagues either. <br /><br />Now, at least we have a solid minor league system ripe with talent. Soon, that talent will begin graduating players to the major leagues. This is how the Twins did it a decade ago, and how Tampa hasMichaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17250964134282394393noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post-56837627067756603712011-03-01T08:05:27.533-06:002011-03-01T08:05:27.533-06:00I wish you had mentioned performance enhancing dru...I wish you had mentioned performance enhancing drugs. How many careers were held up or moved off their ideal position by the fact that they were competing to take a job away from an older player using drugs. They lost some of the natural advantage youth gives them and I thought that was at least as large a factor as the age of players from over seas.markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02083316354675176699noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post-82702433179040042922011-03-01T07:51:07.103-06:002011-03-01T07:51:07.103-06:00+1
Rany, I love you man. You've done great t...+1<br /><br />Rany, I love you man. You've done great things. But the pro-GMDM bias you've developed is difficult for me to understand. And its frustrating to read from someone whose opinions I have taken as gospel for so long. <br /><br />I mean, how many different ways can you say our farm system is awesome? And how much credit can you really heave at Dayton in a year when the Big Hatthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11596501702008627284noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post-10431901601968172872011-03-01T00:24:21.811-06:002011-03-01T00:24:21.811-06:00Rany is betting against house money in this post a...Rany is betting against house money in this post and trying to find ways to justify it.<br /><br />The study is really good, but did anyone need a study to show that most prospects fail? Everyone knows that most of these guys will flame out.<br /><br />And that leaves Royals fans depending on GMDM to make good trades and FA signings to compete.<br /><br />Maybe GMDM can trade Mous for Friedman.Jacobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18354013763578304646noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post-9707719434797054162011-02-28T23:39:38.995-06:002011-02-28T23:39:38.995-06:00"Sustained contender" is a relative term..."Sustained contender" is a relative term when it comes to the Royals. While many people think the Glasses have improved their mgmt style I still tend to believe that we'll lose any of our players that become good as soon as they're able to split. Glass is simply never going to maintain a good enough payroll to be a sustained contender, imo.kevinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00193643298557174002noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post-21427023080809506012011-02-28T21:17:37.992-06:002011-02-28T21:17:37.992-06:00To Ryan E.:
This part of the objection has been h...To Ryan E.:<br /><br />This part of the objection has been handled. In the original study, he also checked success rate by system. And as it turned out, no matter the quality of the system, there is not a significant difference in success rate in the long term.<br /><br />Of course, we are getting BA's rankings of those systems (not the organizations internal judgments). That might be more a Brenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18356073874421881270noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3129904004334636055.post-53070213212073353602011-02-28T19:42:36.916-06:002011-02-28T19:42:36.916-06:00What? The Royals are releasing Hosmer today? How d...What? The Royals are releasing Hosmer today? How did this happen???<br /><br />:-)<br /><br />My luck is kind of like this: the Royals could contend in 2012. The Mayan calendar will be right.pjbroncohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08277672919143161617noreply@blogger.com